The Rapid Fire Swing Trader ebook is nothing more than recycled Connors/Rasche stuff. Just buy the old TASC articles. It's also discussed in a few books as well by same authors. Save your $49.95. I think you may even be able to download that article for free somewhere...
I didn't raise a stink about the ebook when others were first asking about it because they were advertising here. When I asked the seller of the ebook if he realized what he was peddling was already published by Connors/Rasche he gave me some BS about how other customers are making a killing with the method.
Imagine if I took just ONE well known technique (like standard Stochastics or RSI) and made up some glorified marketing about how it's a great technique and then marketed it. That's what this guy did. It came out right at the height of "swing trading" being so in vogue.
Heh, there's nothing wrong with slick marketing. Some people are very good at selling ebooks. Reminds me of the old Windsor ads I'd get in the mail.
CAVEAT EMPTOR.
P.S. All you have to do is read the ad and realize that the marketing material is 100x more glamorous than the content. Remember that the usability of the content is inversely proportional to the # of buzz words used in the marketing material.
P.P.S. I emailed Stephen Pierce and challenged him on his book. Here is an email I sent to Pierce on the book a year ago. I left out some non-important and privacy-related comments.
P.P.P.S. Stephen Pierce responded to my email saying I didn't know what I was talking about, that I obviously needed to review all the charts, and that the ebook only included ONLY ONE reference to a long-term chart. Of course, my criticism in Pierce showing long-term charts was the weakest of the other criticisms. What he was doing was showing salient examples of perfect swing-trade charts that resulted in large long-term moves, but in reality if you happened to be in the trade you would've only picked up the first 3 days of the move (his rules say exit on 3rd day) which may or may not have been profitable.
Of course, he didn't respond to my other comments. I sent a follow up letter, that he didn't respond to:
I didn't raise a stink about the ebook when others were first asking about it because they were advertising here. When I asked the seller of the ebook if he realized what he was peddling was already published by Connors/Rasche he gave me some BS about how other customers are making a killing with the method.
Imagine if I took just ONE well known technique (like standard Stochastics or RSI) and made up some glorified marketing about how it's a great technique and then marketed it. That's what this guy did. It came out right at the height of "swing trading" being so in vogue.
Heh, there's nothing wrong with slick marketing. Some people are very good at selling ebooks. Reminds me of the old Windsor ads I'd get in the mail.
CAVEAT EMPTOR.
P.S. All you have to do is read the ad and realize that the marketing material is 100x more glamorous than the content. Remember that the usability of the content is inversely proportional to the # of buzz words used in the marketing material.
P.P.S. I emailed Stephen Pierce and challenged him on his book. Here is an email I sent to Pierce on the book a year ago. I left out some non-important and privacy-related comments.
Dear Mr. Pierce,
[...some pleasantries...]
While the information itself is a useful tool for swing trading, this technique is identical to that described in the 1996 TASC article "Historical Volatility and Pattern Recognition," by Laurence Connors and Linda Bradford.
Also, if I could provide some friendly criticism, you do not provide any clear cut guidelines for taking profits. Outside of the exit on 3-day rule and being stopped out, you only mention "look for a short-term price objective". This could be 5%, 10%, 15%, etc. Testing this technique yields different results across different futures for different % values, most not being profitable.
Regarding large moves, while some trades look spectacular based on chart patterns, if you stuck to a predetermined % then you do not get most of the big move (hence "swing trading" and not long-term trend following). But I think it is unfair to show some of the big moves that this pattern preceded in your eBook, while not explaining a mechanism such as a trailing stop that would allow a trader to ride the large trend. Of course, expanding the stop beyond 3 days to a trailing stop results in poorer performance even though you might catch the occasional big move.
Also, the regression trendline method is also subjective in that the user has to pick the end-points of the start and end of regression trendline, and as you know not all chart patterns reveal obvious end-points. A mechanical rule for predicting the ITT would have been preferable.
[...some pleasantries...]
Warm Regards,
xxxxxx
P.P.P.S. Stephen Pierce responded to my email saying I didn't know what I was talking about, that I obviously needed to review all the charts, and that the ebook only included ONLY ONE reference to a long-term chart. Of course, my criticism in Pierce showing long-term charts was the weakest of the other criticisms. What he was doing was showing salient examples of perfect swing-trade charts that resulted in large long-term moves, but in reality if you happened to be in the trade you would've only picked up the first 3 days of the move (his rules say exit on 3rd day) which may or may not have been profitable.
Of course, he didn't respond to my other comments. I sent a follow up letter, that he didn't respond to:
Mr. Pierce,
You are a CTA and I am surprised by your reply.
[... pleasantries ...]
[1] You did not confirm or deny that this technique is identical to that described in the 1996 TASC article "Historical Volatility and Pattern Recognition," by Laurence Connors and Linda Bradford. Just repackaged as an eBook with some chart reviews and additional "guidelines".
[2] Regarding your comment, you did not show just ONE CHART, but FIVE charts implying that this setup portends very large moves. I merely mentioned that the nature of swing trading and the "3 day rule" is that the trader will never catch these moves, so it is misleading to include them without that caveat clearly stated. Specifically,
- Page 16- Oct Lean Hogs Trade, you mentioned a "SURPRISE $$$$$$$" stating that the "HVR Is absolutely incredible" and implying that this technique can be used to predict large trend moves.
- Page 20- "June 7th, 2001...The following day Gold began a 11 day rally from 267.800 to 276.600"
- Page 22- "The alert that is most incredible is the May 29the reversal high. This turned into a massive sell off that continues even as this is being written."
- Page 24- Natural Gas "Another HVR-NR4/IB Setup Hit Home Run... Banking mega cash in the mega Natural Gas decline on a HVR-NR4/IB setup"
- Page 28- "a 490 point drop follows immediately after HVR/NR4 trade setup"
I am only trying to provide you feedback. Considering you are a CTA, I am hoping you are taking it as constructive criticism. We all know the high # of predators out there with "junk systems".
[... pleasantries ...]
Regards,
xxxxx
