I did a google search. "What percentage of listed equity orders are traded on ATS." The result was "For all market-capitalization groups of stocks, at least 10% of trading dollar volume (11.37% of share volume) is attributable to ATSs, with the largest market share occurring in medium capitalization stocks (12.30% of dollar volume and 12.86% of share volume).Oct 1, 2013." If you place a limit order with a free route, do you think they post that order on the ECN with the highest rebate to keep that credit or do you think they leave that internal in their Dark Pool for you to trade with. Remember, they pay a fee to that broker no matter where it executes. With a large number of Lite ECN/Exchanges and dark pools, it will be hard to buy on the bid or sell on the ASK without the stock moving. Why not get paid when you do get an execution. I do not agree with your math.
Robert
I just did a 10 second Google search which said that 90-95% of retail orders don't go through lit exchanges. I conclude that I have a very small change of a retail market order hitting my standing limit orders when I use a direct access broker and route my limit orders to exchanges. This is exactly my experience.
I'm not sure if I understand what you are trying to explain with your rhetorical question - I'm confused who is "they" and "you" in your logic.
I can't disagree with your last sentence - why not get paid a rebate when I do get filled via adverse selection (that you admit to in your sentence). But again, the rebate is small compared to the slippage from adverse selection. It's like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.
I spent years putting in limit orders with a reputable direct access broker, thinking I was smart as my broker doesn't pay for order flow and supposedly gives me unbiased best executions via "smart" orders, or directly routed orders. I routed my orders either "smart" or manually to all major exchanges, but I rarely got a fill without the market moving. When the market doesn't move, I typically see the volume increasing by thousands and thousands of shares, while my 1 lot order just sits there at the NBBO bid (buy orders) or ask (sell orders) waiting to be filled on the exchanges. In addition, when the spread is 1c I am not allowed to place an order within the spread, while off-exchange venues and market makers are allowed to do just that, and I see thousands if not tens of thousands of shares being traded at the bid, at the ask, or in between, while my small order is still sitting at the NBBO and patiently waiting. Until the market moves, HFTs and other traders compete for my order for an instant gain, and I immediately lose 1c per share or whatever the spread is (or more).
I just switched to a zero commission broker, and all my orders get instantly filled, with an average slippage of ca. $0.001 (1/10th of the $0.01 spread) from the midprice.
So please convince me why on Earth I would stick with a direct access broker using limit orders, almost never getting filled with matching market orders, and pay the spread on almost all my orders via adverse selection when the market moves; and to add insult to injury, pay a commission on top of it?
Looking forward to hear your explanation.
The system appears to be rigged. As most retail order flow happens off exchanges, and because of the unfair limitation of $0.01 tick size that applies to retail investors but not to internalizers and market makers (very hard to understand why this rule applies selectively), retail investors are basically forced to go with zero commission brokers who use market markers.