https://optimusfutures.com/tradeblog/archives/futures-trading-technical-analysis-diy-audit
Anybody have Volume as Entry Trigger type of Chart Picture?
Anybody have Volume as Entry Trigger type of Chart Picture?
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- Thread starter Ivano
- Start date
Of course I make a lot of mistakes and is easy to speak after one sees the charts but this is an occasion to show to elite trader if I read well the charts and if you guys have the patience to follow me: they look quite coherent, as often is for futures. For the first chart 25 dec and 1 jan were playable entry points to me, volume does not matter too much because I would have entered in the first 30 minutes, great high tight flag, declining selling forces from the volume, and a clear reversal that may mean the short have been hit by their stop losses; the second chart: the lowering volume of the second chart is a good signal, it means to me that is ready for a reversal and 19 Jan would have been a great point to enter, again tight resistance from a clear flag, great mini pull back opportunity from the preceding day in red that pushes the momentum catching the 10 moving average, unfortunately it looks the breakout failed too fast after less than 10 percent points, so this may suggest some sharp change of opinion that broke the technical regression reading and the base was not convincing, nor we got any consolidation or contraction of the volatility, but eventually(and ideally in theory) I would have exited on the first hour of the big red candle at beginning of June, I guess 3/5 percent below the not exponential 10 moving average . I repeat too easy to speak now, but there is some detectable price action. The real problem in the volume imo are the dark pools for big caps, and pumping for low float small ones. ps. Hope I did not say too much nonsense
. Hope you veterans can give me some feedback to improve my still junior pattern recognition of technicals
. Hope you veterans can give me some feedback to improve my still junior pattern recognition of technicals
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Ivan, I agree.
The mind is like a warehouse that has a staging area of finite size.
For the amount of space / attention that monitoring the volume takes, I have yet to find a method to use it on an intraday basis that is as clearcut and reliable as lots of setups and triggers that take much less attention, time, interpretation, etc.
I keep an invite out there for any good method of using volume for setups and triggers that give as black and white of a setup as say - off the top of my head something like a double bottom/top classic setup.
Double Bottom and Tops paired with measured moves have very specific and simple rules and allow quick accurate stats generation. They are not my favorite setup but can be used a few ways. I'm a belt and suspenders careful kind of trader and the stops for double bots and tops can be pretty far away. A common trait of the move that often follows a classic dbl bot/ top is for it to retrace back to the breakout area, where a civilized stop loss can be imposed and oftentimes a setup and trigger of the pullback kind will emerge.
For the trades pictured above, did volume tell us -before- the trade what was the specific trigger?
Volume can probably be used in this case and I look forward to the opportunity to see how something like that would work. When I say see how, that means on a couple of marked up charts that show exactly wtf. See the chart for dbl top that's linked. Something like that saves a lot of talk and handwaving and is the stuff that a trade setup is made of.
If that lower chart had been traded as a double bottom, a 100% measured move could have been cashed out before the volume information gave problems. Now as far as getting that 200% measured move, now there's where some stats that involve volume might be useful. I'm looking forward to seeing that in practice some day.
Meanwhile there is no need for me to hold my breath until the day that method hits the screen. There's action in the markets in spades currently and many many types of setups are working very well and predictably for intraday trades.
Double Top and Bottom
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-18#post-5309309
there is a nice book called brain at work that explain in the first chapter how our prefrontal cortex has a literally a finite stage
I guess as a junior that volume, is really interesting on the daily and weekly chart, to help to predict price action, intraday or as entering point does not make any sense because most of the trades are usually at market open
So good methods may be found, for positional and swing traders, also may help to understand breakouts when the market indexes allows.
May be simple but even as a day trader one does not have to take all the double bottom
QQQ had and most tech had this one last two weeks ago (see my resistance line)
https://ibb.co/Hr6Mz0w
Technically was acceptable, but rally attempt failed because the worsening worldwide events facilitated oil instead of tech. Often the market knows in advance, but then the setup need to be refined finding other variables based on personal study.
Well the 2 cases you pointed out are not strange to play to me ( in better markets than this one), I mean is clear a certain price action supported by bullish volume patterns, and definitely the only intraday action I do is when I have tight stop losses and want to sell in strength in this difficult market, but indeed for an intraday trader it looks pretty nice,
thank you very much for your link is a beautiful post, I am going to deep dive in all the that threads and setups in the week end confronting on what I learned so far, a lot of interesting stuff
Here's a picture of a simple setup that just happened about an hour ago.
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/charts-for-no-reason.344272/page-18#post-5557984
A setup like that lends itself almost as easily as the dbl bottom to a list of steps or rules. I like it better because the stops can be more civilized.
If you don't mind being rules based trader you could whip up a list of steps that answer these questions.
What triggers a buy or a sell to open?
What triggers an exit?
With that 'prototype list' a trader could go find a dozen times when this happened on an intraday chart. It happens a lot intraday 5minute and below charts and carries over well to the larger timeframe charts imho.
Some will work, some will not so the question emerges:
When it worked, why would you say that worked when you did the same thing on another trade and it failed?'
Out of the first dozen examples do many of the losers have something in common that is missing in the group of winners? Do the winners have something in common that is missing in the group of losers?
If there's some change in the 'prototype list' that might make things work better, then rewrite the list and rename it 'proto list 2'. Get another dozen that fit the proto 2 list. Find a dozen more and repeat this till you have a suitable set of rules and decide whether it makes sense to continue or on the other hand does the setup not show any promise. If it is not profitable, then that's good to know.
If there may be promise in the 'proto setup' then go find 88 more that fit the best proto list and do some stats to figure what might be the result of putting that setup in the box of tools to trade with.
In live trading the results will probably not be as good as the numbers would lead a trader to expect. That's Ok. Keep good records of the starting small small small live trades. ymmv.
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...solid-trading-plan.340340/page-4#post-5031706
is what I do, studying set up and ask to my self about why certain worked and other not in a particular period. But then the only thing I look is a good risk reward opportunity and to not overtrade not taking any setup