Randomness And Trading

[.sigma]

??

No.

Study up on any fundamentalist who is successful. They always say they’re initially wrong on timing (which is expected). Fundie trades aren’t concerned with the timing of order entry like technical analysis is. So yes you’re correct, but it’s not a “bad” thing for the fundamentalist per se.

and I mentioned position sizing because a fundamentalist doesn’t scoop up his entire investment on one limit order book. She gradually accumulates through space and time at advantageous prices. So if spot decides to go down after a buy, that’s even better! Nothing is better than seeing value prices go down, collective bargaining my friend!

 

[volpri]

Idea: Open your own ET journal and post buy/sell signals based on "fundamentals".

Mickey ain’t gonna do that....

 

[ironchef]

One can be either smart or dumb and make money.
But smarts will rule dumb in the long haul.
Stock prices are not just prices, a bubble price one second might not be that same price the next second and dumb money will be too slow to react.
Knowing what's under the hood prepares a smart trader not to enter the trap.

You and I are on the same side but we are the minority and I like to keep it that way so don't argue too hard.

 

[Saithinin]

In trading, you cannot rely on chance, it is better to always have a clear plan.

 

[themickey]

Mickey ain’t gonna do that....

Ya, thinkaboudit, if I were the smartest trader this side of the black stump, what would it prove?
I know - work for me, goodies for you's lot and then I'd get replaced, by too much competition.
I want my competitors dumb as door knobs. Hehehe.

 

[actively]

The problem is that there is every way under the sun to define a trend. How many of those can become a positive expectancy system? Who knows, perhaps many of them or perhaps none of them.

Unlike the opinion in the "Backtesting is Useless" thread, I think that's what you need to do in order to get a big enough N to have statistical meaning. Of course backtesting is an art and science unto itself.

Couldnt agree more. You have said the way I wanted to convey

 

[Tradex]

Nothing is better than seeing value prices go down

That's what the Enron stockholders thought too, all the way down to zero.

The trading cemetery is filled with "bargain hunters" and "value" investors.

 

[ironchef]

That's what the Enron stockholders thought too, all the way down to zero.

The trading cemetery is filled with "bargain hunters" and "value" investors.

This is a classic case of A Tale Of Two Cities.

The swing traders among us need to worry about fundamentals whereas for the day traders, not important or not even relevant when the holding period is minutes.

 

[Tradex]

The swing traders among us need to worry about fundamentals

We don't need fundamentals even if we are trading with yearly charts (1 bar = 1 year).
The chart itself is all we need, and it never lies.

On the other hand a fundamentalist can say ANY B.S. and get away with it, nobody will be able to contradict him, because he will NEVER publish a specific entry point and a stop.

 

[themickey]

.....The chart itself is all we need, and it never lies.....

The bar does indeed tell fibs/porkies.
If bars don't lie, can you show me your squillions banked. Ta muchly.