Random

Be patient. This "Password" video is a great analogy to understanding the market. Gurus, in this case Fido, give clues and all you have to do is guess the password to fame and fortune.

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/HTkPFXddWxw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
One report, authored by academics Johan Bollen, Huina Mao and Xiao-Jun Zeng, says the degree of "calmness" of the Twitterverse can predict - with 87.6 percent accuracy - how the Dow Jones industrial average will move two to six days ahead of time.
 
Quote from nutmeg:

One report, authored by academics Johan Bollen, Huina Mao and Xiao-Jun Zeng, says the degree of "calmness" of the Twitterverse can predict - with 87.6 percent accuracy - how the Dow Jones industrial average will move two to six days ahead of time.
More...

So when twitter is quieter, the dow is headed up?
 
"To assess the statistical signi&#64257;cance of the SOFNN achieving the above mentioned accuracy of 87.6% in predicting the
up and down movement of the DJIA we calculate the odds of
this result occurring by chance. The binomial distribution indicates that the probability of achieving exactly 87.6% correct
guesses over 15 trials (20 days minus weekends) with a 50%
chance of success on each single trial equals 0.32%. Taken
over the entire length of our data set (February 28 to December
20, excluding weekends) we &#64257;nd approximately 10.9 of such
20 day periods. The odds that the mentioned probability would
hold by chance for a random period of 20 days within that
period is then estimated to be 1(10:0032)
10:9 = 0:0343 or 3.4%. The SOFNN direction accuracy is thus most likely not the result of chance nor our selecting a speci&#64257;cally favorable
test period. "

:p
 
Quote from kinggyppo:

"To assess the statistical signi&#64257;cance of the SOFNN achieving the above mentioned accuracy of 87.6% in predicting the
up and down movement of the DJIA we calculate the odds of
this result occurring by chance. The binomial distribution indicates that the probability of achieving exactly 87.6% correct
guesses over 15 trials (20 days minus weekends) with a 50%
chance of success on each single trial equals 0.32%. Taken
over the entire length of our data set (February 28 to December
20, excluding weekends) we &#64257;nd approximately 10.9 of such
20 day periods. The odds that the mentioned probability would
hold by chance for a random period of 20 days within that
period is then estimated to be 1(10:0032)
10:9 = 0:0343 or 3.4%. The SOFNN direction accuracy is thus most likely not the result of chance nor our selecting a speci&#64257;cally favorable
test period. "

:p
More...

This guy should apply for work at the IRS.
(Not you, brother Kinggy...The guy who wrote this.)
 
Quote from BSAM:

This guy should apply for work at the IRS.
(Not you, brother Kinggy...The guy who wrote this.)
More...

reminds me of the subprime default models of 2008, interesting read though.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top