Random Walk Theory Proved, once and for all.

Quote from Mike805:

For those who believe that the market is random: take a shot at reproducing this repsonse (see attached chart) with a RAND() function...

Oh... and there's a little somethin' called "efficient market theory" that warrants serious and focused attention too (sarcasm)... I suggest you waste .... I mean *spend* your time examining this amazingly well thougthout and throughly tested concept

:)
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Chart Attached here.
 
Everyone(almost) likes a good discussion even nonsense about random or nonrandom markets.Who cares?The markets are about price action regardless of what mysterious or unknown cause.
Let the predicter of the future step up and declare. Someone is always stepping up with a prediction. We humans dearly love the complicated solution.
NO-ONE CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE WITH CERTAINTY.
You traders should know that predicting market movement and acting on it,and insisting that you are correct will deplete your funds.
You can make a guess and if correct hang on and if not get out. What else is there about trading that must be known?
Hard to pat yourself on the back about how smart you are if it's that simple isn't it?
 
Quote from heypa:
NO-ONE CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE WITH CERTAINTY.
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i wont say i can but i will say "my computer can predict the future of the sp with a high degree of accuracy" no i wont tell you how it is done then i would loose the other thing people say dont exist "the edge" if i loose my edge then i will not be able to move about and live in geneva, orlando, truckee, vegas and chicago when i want at particular times of the year.

mb

also there are more than one way to predict the future. i belive in the the term xxxxxx xxxxxxx. even though scholars say it does not exist or even know what it is.
 
Quote from mu200411:

Sorry for going out of scientific way in response to non-scientific comments.
Let's go back to formula.
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you are not scientific, you are frustrated.
 
Quote from steve46:

"Mathematics of Technical Analysis. Applying Statistics to trading Stocks, Options and Futures" by Clifford Sherry and Jason Sherry. Forward by John Sweeney. Published by ToExcel

Good luck folks
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i remember the book. it is quite a while back, right? i did not find
it too useful then. but it was probably among the first to bring math
into popular trading.
 
Analysts in fantasyland
Despite years of reform, the latest numbers show that Wall Street prognosticators are every bit as deluded and inaccurate as they ever were.
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/12/24/101939717/index.htm

Strong-form efficiency (Efficient Market Hypothesis not equal to Random Walk Theory)
Share prices reflect all information, public and private and no one can earn excess returns.
If there are legal barriers to private information becoming public, as with insider trading laws, strong-form efficiency is impossible, except in the case where the laws are universally ignored. Studies on the U.S. stock market have shown that people do trade on inside information.[citation needed]
To test for strong form efficiency, a market needs to exist where investors cannot consistently earn excess returns over a long period of time. Even if some money managers are consistently observed to beat the market, no refutation even of strong-form efficiency follows: with tens of thousands of fund managers worldwide[citation needed], even a normal distribution of returns (as efficiency predicts) should be expected to produce a few dozen "star" performers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient_market_hypothesis
 
Is it true that only 10% on new traders survive the first Bear Market?

Weak-form efficiency (This EMH may be equal to Random Walk Theory)
No excess returns can be earned by using investment strategies based on historical share prices.
Weak-form efficiency implies that Technical analysis techniques will not be able to consistently produce excess returns, though some forms of fundamental analysis may still provide excess returns. (= Bias Randomness :cool:)
In a weak-form efficient market current share prices are the best, unbiased, estimate of the value of the security. Theoretical in nature, weak form efficiency advocates assert that fundamental analysis can be used to identify stocks that are undervalued and overvalued. Therefore, keen investors looking for profitable companies can earn profits by researching financial statements.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient_market_hypothesis
 
Quote from mu200411:

Theoretical in nature, weak form efficiency advocates assert that fundamental analysis can be used to identify stocks that are undervalued and overvalued. Therefore, keen investors looking for profitable companies can earn profits by researching financial statements.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient_market_hypothesis
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Wow, a fundamental analyst wrote that entry for sure?
That's definitely not the standard assertion form weak from EMH.
 
There's a joke to all of this...

Is Science random?

Are you not (everyone) bound within the "Laws" of nature?

As long all forces of nature (and humans who make the market... humans make trading models, you know) rule over us, there is no such thing as "random"...

Pseudo-random? Sure, but any kind of pseudo-random generated series can be reverse-engineered. And it has been.

Who in here can prove that "Law of Gravity" or "Relativity Theory" is in fact a force of randomness...???

All of this is a big joke. GET REAL.
 
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