Random Walk Theory Proved, once and for all.

If in a downtrend, negative change in High and Low is always follow by negative change", a newbie will be a millionaire within one year by buying at the Low of the day and selling at the High of the day which are somewhat lower than the High and the Low of the previous day. :cool:
Is there any broker that will take the order, "Buy at the Low of the day and sell at the High of the day"?:confused:

Quote from mu200411:12-07-07 10:44 PM
You may argue that, "in a downtrend, negative change in High and Low is follow by negative change" and "in an uptrend, the reverse is true", so the Market is not random.
On the surface it seem alright, but deep down it is not that simple.
More...
 
With more than millions previous data points and lots of supercomputers can anyone predict the hour that High and Low will occur tomorrow? :cool:
I will be very grateful if you give me the equations. :D

If not just tell me whether the High and the Low will occur in the morning or in the afternoon. :eek:
You don't have to reveal you trade secret, just tell me you can do. :) I'll buy or sell accordingly.

Or just tell me in which month of the year 2008 will the low of the year occur, so I can buy :) , and which will the high, so I can sell. :D

Or unpredictability is not equal to randomness! :mad:
 
Sorry! I post to hard questions, no one answers.
Let's do some easy questions. Answer yes or no. Easy enough?
1. Do all rumors relate to past price actions?
If not.
2. Are there some rumors which are not related to past price action?
If yes.
3. Do all rumors which are not related to past price actions not affect price action?
If no.
4. Do some rumors which are not related to past price actions affect price actions?
If yes.
5. Do price actions which are the result of rumors which are not related to past price actions related to past price action?
If no.
6. Are some price actions not related to past price actions?
If yes.
7. Some price actions cannot be predicted by past price actions.
QED.
 
this forum is called eliteTRADER. and TRADERs inevitably believe
that the market is not random, otherwise they are NOT TRADEABLE.
now if you do not believe in astrology would you waste your time
telling people on an astrology forum that what they are doing is
bogus?

if you want to know whether the market is random or not look
at rentec. THAT is the answer. what you are "proving" is just that
FOR YOU it is all just noise.

god, why do i write this ...
 
Quote from mu200411:

Sorry! I post to hard questions, no one answers.
More...
no. you are not asking real questions, but form sentences that
prevent answers out of your current mindset.
 
Quote from mu200411:

In this thread Random Walk Theory will be proved.
There will be no discussion about TA.

If I can draw charts using Random number series that look like stock charts, will it be a proof that Random Walk Theory is true or a proof that Random number series also follow the Nature law of Elliott?:confused:

Anyway let's produce some charts first.:D

N.B. Please move this thread to an appropriate forum.
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This is an idiotic exercise and a total waste of time to a trader/to be ImO. A trader has to dedicate his time to research non-random events that provide actual benefit.
 
the more time i spend in the markets the less and less efficient they seem to be. Random Walk theory implies prices are efficient and all news and fundamental factors are priced in therefore there is no edge in anticipating where price may move.

Firstly someone that thinks prices reflect true clinical value have clearly never traded, in London tiny two bed flats in a rough area with no outside space sell for over £300,000. Whilst a small house in a nice area sells for over £1 million. In the late 90's we saw internet companies that didnt even turn a profit sell valued in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Crude oil once again starts to focus on $100 per barrel despite OPEC claiming markets are well supplied, we had no notable hurricaine season etc etc you get the point. This isnt "value" these are examples of hysteria, markets are always hysetrical because humans are always hysterical.

Personally i belive trading would be even more profitable if markets were efficient (despite random walker's protests) because if everything moved in line with value with no hysterical price spikes and no "random" news panicking the market i believe economic trends would become more stable and therefore easier to ride. I.e there were no price bubbles and interest rates were allowed to move in smooth trends as the economy moved in its natural inflationary deflationary cycles without fear of housing bubbles, trade balance worries, dollar collapses the market is more likely to move as it "should do on paper" which all the economists would no doubt love. In my humble opinion, for markets to be truly efficient and therefore random not only would the human race have to voluntarily all change into rational robots and the exact same moment but there must also be absolutely NO news ever, including terrorist attacks, weather, wars, technological malfunctions etc etc which cause unexpected differences in opinions hysteria and emotion
 
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