Random Walk Journal

garfangle · Dec 31, 2003

2003 Year End Review

12/31/03 Update

Type Recommendation (current status)
------ ---------------------
1 Strong bull (anticipate significant upside near-term)
2 Weak bull (conditional upside, probable strength)
3 Neutral (uncertain current outlook, could go either way)
4 Weak bear (conditional downside, probable fall)
5 Strong bear (anticipate significant downside near-term)

Picks: (closing prices as of/Net change from initial positive post (and 12/31/03 or close position))

Baxter Intl (BAX) 26.62 /+.53 (6/6/03 - 11/6/03)
YTD gain: 2.03%

Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) 28.05 /+1.91 (6/6/03 - 10/1/03)
YTD gain: 7.31%

Hasbro (HAS) 19.75 /+3.07 (6/6/03 - 12/11/03)
YTD gain: 18.41%

Casual Male Retail Group (CMRG) 7.12 /+1.77 (6/18/03 - 12/11/03)
YTD gain: 33.08%

Rf Microdevices (RFMD) 10.24 /+4.46 (6/25/03 - 12/11/03)
YTD gain: 77.16%

Yahoo (YHOO) 45.03 /+8.63 (10/1/03 - 12/31/03)
YTD gain: 23.71%

Wells Fargo (WFC) 58.89 /+2.74 (11/18/03 - 12/31/03)
YTD gain: 4.88%

Average YTD gain of all picks: 23.80%

S&P 100 Index (OEX) 550.78 /+55.11 (6/6/03 - 12/31/03)
YTD gain: 11.12%

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) 1467.92 /+254.81 (6/6/03 - 12/31/03)
YTD gain: 21.00%

Feedback will be welcome.

garfangle · Jan 16, 2004

1/16/04 Update

Type Recommendation (current status)
------ ---------------------
1 Strong bull (anticipate significant upside near-term)
2 Weak bull (conditional upside, probable strength)
3 Neutral (uncertain current outlook, could go either way)
4 Weak bear (conditional downside, probable fall)
5 Strong bear (anticipate significant downside near-term)

Picks: (closing prices as of 1/16/04) /Net change from 12/29/03

Yahoo (YHOO) 48.11 /+3.14
new rating: 1
previous rating: 1

Wells Fargo (WFC) 57.19 /-1.59
new rating: 3
previous rating: 1

S&P 100 Index (OEX) 564.72 /+15.49
new rating: 1
previous rating: 1

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) 1553.62 /+83.25
new rating: 1
previous rating: 1

Feedback will be welcome.

EMini-Player · Jan 16, 2004

Quote from garfangle:

Feedback will be welcome.

I haven't followed your entire journal, but reading the last few calls, they all seem to be right on! Nice work

-Fast

garfangle · Jan 27, 2004

1/27/04 Update

Type Recommendation (current status)
------ ---------------------
1 Strong bull (anticipate significant upside near-term)
2 Weak bull (conditional upside, probable strength)
3 Neutral (uncertain current outlook, could go either way)
4 Weak bear (conditional downside, probable fall)
5 Strong bear (anticipate significant downside near-term)

Picks: (closing prices as of 1/27/04) /Net change from 1/16/04

Yahoo (YHOO) 47.04 /-1.07
new rating: 1
previous rating: 1
STOP below 46.00 (on close)

Wells Fargo (WFC) 57.41 /+.22
new rating: 3
previous rating: 3
STOP below 56.30 (on close)

S&P 100 Index (OEX) 567.15 /+2.43
new rating: 1
previous rating: 1

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) 1553.62 /-34.39
new rating: 1
previous rating: 1

Feedback will be welcome.

manz66 · Jan 28, 2004

tried random pick:

"Yes, it is still there under the same subject: Random Morning Trade.

Here are the results thus far:

5/28/02: Entry: 1085.50 L. Stop: 1084.50. Exit 1087.50. Result: -1.00.
5/29/02: Entry: 1071.75 S. Stop: 1072.75. Exit 1069.75. Result: -1.00.
5/30/02: Entry: 1060.75 L. Stop: 1059.75. Exit 1062.75. Result: -1.00.
5/31/02: Entry: 1070.00 S. Stop: 1071.00. Exit 1068.00. Result: +2.00.
6/03/02: Entry: 1066.00 L. Stop: 1065.00. Exit 1068.00. Result: +2.00.
6/04/02: Entry: 1035.75 L. Stop: 1034.75. Exit 1037.75. Result: +2.00.
6/05/02: Entry: 1044.00 S. Stop: 1045.00. Exit 1042.00. Result: +2.00.
6/06/02: Entry: 1050.50 S. Stop: 1051.50. Exit 1048.50. Result: +2.00.
6/07/02: Entry: 1013.00 L. Stop: 1012.00. Exit 1015.00. Result: +2.00.

Total: +9.00 Win/Loss: 6/3

I did not cheat to get those results. The trade direction was literally obtained by the toss of a coin. I do not have any way to
know which is the preferred direction in advance of the open or I
would be using it instead of a random selection. I have not seen any noticeable pattern in the correct direction to choose".

link:

http://groups.google.com/groups?hl=...=/groups?q=tick+chart&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en

garfangle · Feb 3, 2004

2/3/04 Update

Type Recommendation (current status)
------ ---------------------
1 Strong bull (anticipate significant upside near-term)
2 Weak bull (conditional upside, probable strength)
3 Neutral (uncertain current outlook, could go either way)
4 Weak bear (conditional downside, probable fall)
5 Strong bear (anticipate significant downside near-term)

Picks: (closing prices as of 2/3/04) /Net change from 1/27/04

Yahoo (YHOO) 45.49 /-1.55
[closing position] - STOP triggered

Wells Fargo (WFC) 57.96 /+.55
new rating: 3
previous rating: 3
STOP below 56.30 (on close)

S&P 100 Index (OEX) 563.36 /-3.79
new rating: 1
previous rating: 1

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) 1491.85 /-27.38
new rating: 1
previous rating: 1

Feedback will be welcome.

garfangle · Mar 5, 2004

3/5/04 Update

Wells Fargo (WFC)
new rating: 1
previous rating: 3
new STOP below 57.50 (on close)

garfangle · Mar 9, 2004

3/8/04 Update

Type Recommendation (current status)
------ ---------------------
1 Strong bull (anticipate significant upside near-term)
2 Weak bull (conditional upside, probable strength)
3 Neutral (uncertain current outlook, could go either way)
4 Weak bear (conditional downside, probable fall)
5 Strong bear (anticipate significant downside near-term)

Picks: (closing prices as of 3/8/04) /Net change from 2/3/04

Wells Fargo (WFC) 58.60 /+.64
new rating: 1
previous rating: 1
STOP below 58.00 (on close)

S&P 100 Index (OEX) 563.67 /+.31
new rating: 1
previous rating: 1

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) 1441.12 /-50.73
new rating: 4
previous rating: 1

Feedback will be welcome.

garfangle · Mar 11, 2004

3/11/04 Update

Type Recommendation (current status)
------ ---------------------
1 Strong bull (anticipate significant upside near-term)
2 Weak bull (conditional upside, probable strength)
3 Neutral (uncertain current outlook, could go either way)
4 Weak bear (conditional downside, probable fall)
5 Strong bear (anticipate significant downside near-term)

Picks: (closing prices as of 3/11/04) /Net change from 3/8/04

Wells Fargo (WFC) 57.71 /-.89

STOP below 58.00 triggered.
Closing position.

garfangle · Mar 13, 2004

Final Random Walk Journal Rd. 1

3/13/04 Update

Type Recommendation (current status)
------ ---------------------
1 Strong bull (anticipate significant upside near-term)
2 Weak bull (conditional upside, probable strength)
3 Neutral (uncertain current outlook, could go either way)
4 Weak bear (conditional downside, probable fall)
5 Strong bear (anticipate significant downside near-term)

Picks: (closing prices as of/Net change from initial positive post (and close position))

Note: Total Return: TR

Baxter Intl (BAX) 26.62 /+.53 (6/6/03 - 11/6/03)
TR gain: 2.03%

Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) 28.05 /+1.91 (6/6/03 - 10/1/03)
TR gain: 7.31%

Hasbro (HAS) 19.75 /+3.07 (6/6/03 - 12/11/03)
TR gain: 18.41%

Casual Male Retail Group (CMRG) 7.12 /+1.77 (6/18/03 - 12/11/03)
TR gain: 33.08%

Rf Microdevices (RFMD) 10.24 /+4.46 (6/25/03 - 12/11/03)
TR gain: 77.16%

Yahoo (YHOO) 45.49 /+9.09 (10/1/03 - 2/3/04)
TR gain: 24.97%

Wells Fargo (WFC) 57.71 /+1.56 (11/18/03 - 3/11/04)
TR gain: 2.78%

-----

Average Total Return gain of all picks: 23.68%

S&P 100 Index (OEX) 544.16 /+48.49 (6/6/03 - 3/11/04)
TR gain: 11.12%

Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) 1402.20 /+189.09 (6/6/03 - 3/11/04)
TR gain: 15.59%

-----

Summary:
--All picks end in with positive gain.
--Total Return: 112.95% (12.56 pts) better than OEX; 51.89% (8.09 pts) better than NDX during same time period.