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Random Rants and Market Ideas
- Thread starter Brandonf
- Start date
Synergy, my unique small and microcap newsletter is now live on Brandonfredrickson.com. To learn more about this letter please visit http://www.brandonfredrickson.com/smallcap.html
These small and microcap plays represent only about 20% of my trades, but nearly 80% of my profits. For the next few weeks I am going to post each update of synergy to my blog and send it out to my email list. After that it will go out to the email list for a few weeks and finally in August it will become a limited subscription product. Because I do trade these myself and they represent a lot of the profit I am able to generate for my private money managment business I will be keeping this newsletter limited to only 50 (FIFTY) subscribers.
Todays trading idea is in Nicholas Financial, a micro cap company which is headquartered in Clearwater, Florida. The company is growing earnings at a nice clip, is trading at a very reasonable PE and has a great chart. For more info please watch the video at http://www.brandonfredrickson.com/videos/synergy/NICK.html
I believe that after following this product for several weeks you will agree that it is the best of its kind on the net.
These small and microcap plays represent only about 20% of my trades, but nearly 80% of my profits. For the next few weeks I am going to post each update of synergy to my blog and send it out to my email list. After that it will go out to the email list for a few weeks and finally in August it will become a limited subscription product. Because I do trade these myself and they represent a lot of the profit I am able to generate for my private money managment business I will be keeping this newsletter limited to only 50 (FIFTY) subscribers.
Todays trading idea is in Nicholas Financial, a micro cap company which is headquartered in Clearwater, Florida. The company is growing earnings at a nice clip, is trading at a very reasonable PE and has a great chart. For more info please watch the video at http://www.brandonfredrickson.com/videos/synergy/NICK.html
I believe that after following this product for several weeks you will agree that it is the best of its kind on the net.
brandon, would you play your opinion on LU with options, like buying some way out calls, thus not tying up margin?
thanks.
thanks.
Here is this evenings market commentary http://www.brandonfredrickson.com/videos/june30.html
Just curious . . . why do only a few of your links work?
<i>B,Where do you see the market headed from here? Are we ever going to break 2100 or is there going to be a pullback after being in a bull market for 3 years? </i>
I'm just going to go ahead and be honest on this one, it seems to be something people in my industry have a hell of a time with, but I will give it the old college try. I really have no idea. The fact is, it is 10am on a monday morning and I stayed out too late last night. Now I am starving to death and figure I should eat some breakfast, but I have no idea what I'm going to eat. You know I'm going to be eating with in 30 minutes and I don't know what I'm going to have. So, given that I don't know what is going to be put into my own stomach here in 30 minutes, I'd be hard pressed to figure out something as complicated as the stock market. I am fortunate that I do try to put myself in a position that I dont have too. You can look at the market a day at a time and keep putting the puzzle together and do just fine. It's a lot of work of course, but its a hell of a lot more profitable than throwing darts on TV. Speaking of TV..I'm better looking than those guys. Here is proof from my recent day trip to the everglades. http://www.brandonfredrickson.com/gatorBrandon.gif http://www.brandonfredrickson.com/BGator.gif
Fox News..if your reading this I'm available!
Back to the markets for just a sec. If I did have to guess what the market will do over the next several years I would say more of the same. That is, this sick range we have been in. The bubble created a situation where there is very little real value in the market, and in the long term value is what will move the market higher. For more on this please refer to my link at www.brandonfredrickson.com/videos/value.html which is, in my humble opinion, a very good historical view of where we have been and where we are now.
Brandon
PS..more proof I don't know what is going on. I was not out late last night for any great reason like a party...nope! Toni's mom was flying into Orlando from Des Moines last night and I was recruited to pick her up....sometimes a guy has no real abliltiy to choose what happens during the course of a given sunday when he is supposed to be lounging in the pool..anyway. The ticket says the plane lands in Orlando at 8:55 so I left Sarasota with plenty of time to get to the airport in Orlando. Unfortunatly for all involved I went to the Orlando Int'l Airport since that was the Orlando Airport that shows up on the map (well there is also the Orlanod Executive Airport, but I don't even fly charter for myself yet..so I don't I can pull it off for Jean) At any rate, it turns out that she is not flying into "the" Orlando Int'l Airport..nope, she is flying into the Orlandon Sandford International Airport which happens to be 27 miles north of the "Orlando International Airport" and so at 930 I finally got sick of driving around from terminal to terminal looking for Aliegent Airlines and went in and asked for help. Thankfully the kind people at US Airways took pity on me and told me where to go and even called Sanford to have them get ahold of her..since Im also so brilliant as to have forgotten to bring the cell phone with me.
Anyway. I think I'm going to do some eggs, toast and a pepsi for breakfast.
I'm just going to go ahead and be honest on this one, it seems to be something people in my industry have a hell of a time with, but I will give it the old college try. I really have no idea. The fact is, it is 10am on a monday morning and I stayed out too late last night. Now I am starving to death and figure I should eat some breakfast, but I have no idea what I'm going to eat. You know I'm going to be eating with in 30 minutes and I don't know what I'm going to have. So, given that I don't know what is going to be put into my own stomach here in 30 minutes, I'd be hard pressed to figure out something as complicated as the stock market. I am fortunate that I do try to put myself in a position that I dont have too. You can look at the market a day at a time and keep putting the puzzle together and do just fine. It's a lot of work of course, but its a hell of a lot more profitable than throwing darts on TV. Speaking of TV..I'm better looking than those guys. Here is proof from my recent day trip to the everglades. http://www.brandonfredrickson.com/gatorBrandon.gif http://www.brandonfredrickson.com/BGator.gif
Fox News..if your reading this I'm available!
Back to the markets for just a sec. If I did have to guess what the market will do over the next several years I would say more of the same. That is, this sick range we have been in. The bubble created a situation where there is very little real value in the market, and in the long term value is what will move the market higher. For more on this please refer to my link at www.brandonfredrickson.com/videos/value.html which is, in my humble opinion, a very good historical view of where we have been and where we are now.
Brandon
PS..more proof I don't know what is going on. I was not out late last night for any great reason like a party...nope! Toni's mom was flying into Orlando from Des Moines last night and I was recruited to pick her up....sometimes a guy has no real abliltiy to choose what happens during the course of a given sunday when he is supposed to be lounging in the pool..anyway. The ticket says the plane lands in Orlando at 8:55 so I left Sarasota with plenty of time to get to the airport in Orlando. Unfortunatly for all involved I went to the Orlando Int'l Airport since that was the Orlando Airport that shows up on the map (well there is also the Orlanod Executive Airport, but I don't even fly charter for myself yet..so I don't I can pull it off for Jean) At any rate, it turns out that she is not flying into "the" Orlando Int'l Airport..nope, she is flying into the Orlandon Sandford International Airport which happens to be 27 miles north of the "Orlando International Airport" and so at 930 I finally got sick of driving around from terminal to terminal looking for Aliegent Airlines and went in and asked for help. Thankfully the kind people at US Airways took pity on me and told me where to go and even called Sanford to have them get ahold of her..since Im also so brilliant as to have forgotten to bring the cell phone with me.
Anyway. I think I'm going to do some eggs, toast and a pepsi for breakfast.
I get a lot of email about housing as it seems to be attracting a lot of interest by people who are correctly wanting to diversify a bit and whatnot. I live in Sarasota, Florida which was according to most sources the second "hottest" market in the year last year raising on average about 35%, only Brandenton, about 10 miles north of SRQ was hotter, it went up about 45%. But what everyone seems to worry about is if we are at "the top" or not, and certainly the media is helping to fuel all that. So I will give my take.
We already established earlier in the day that I don't know much..so with that in mind lets bravely march forward. I think we are building a bubble and that like all bubbles it will end badly. At some point, I dont know when, people will simply say I wont buy a house for $1.5million that just 3 years ago I could have had for $750,000. When that happens there will likely be a retracment. When long term rates start to go up, which I feel is only just around the corner (im starting to short bonds) I think the bagholders who have ARMS and Interest only loans are going to feel a lot of pain and this could add a lot of pressure to housing prices.
That said, if you find a great house and you want to buy it, do so. First of all bubbles rarely pop when the whole world is on bubble watch. In 1996 everyone was talking about what a bubble was building in technology. It wasnt until they had folded and started to tout the "New Economy" that things went to the shitter fast. I suspect that is what will happen with housing. As soon as CNBC stops worrying about a bubble and instead says things are different this time, then we are probably done..but until then maybe we are safe. But even more important, if you truely love a house and are going to live there and you can afford it there is no reason not to buy it. Assume you find a great house for $750,0o0 and get at 15 year fixxed loan. At current rates with a 20% down payment it will cost you $4747 per month. Lets assume that housing prices come in 20% and you get the same house in five years for $600,000. Rates are now around 8.75% which is still on a historical basis not terrible. You will be paying $4797 for the same house that you could have been enjoying for the last 5 years and paying $50 less per month on.
We already established earlier in the day that I don't know much..so with that in mind lets bravely march forward. I think we are building a bubble and that like all bubbles it will end badly. At some point, I dont know when, people will simply say I wont buy a house for $1.5million that just 3 years ago I could have had for $750,000. When that happens there will likely be a retracment. When long term rates start to go up, which I feel is only just around the corner (im starting to short bonds) I think the bagholders who have ARMS and Interest only loans are going to feel a lot of pain and this could add a lot of pressure to housing prices.
That said, if you find a great house and you want to buy it, do so. First of all bubbles rarely pop when the whole world is on bubble watch. In 1996 everyone was talking about what a bubble was building in technology. It wasnt until they had folded and started to tout the "New Economy" that things went to the shitter fast. I suspect that is what will happen with housing. As soon as CNBC stops worrying about a bubble and instead says things are different this time, then we are probably done..but until then maybe we are safe. But even more important, if you truely love a house and are going to live there and you can afford it there is no reason not to buy it. Assume you find a great house for $750,0o0 and get at 15 year fixxed loan. At current rates with a 20% down payment it will cost you $4747 per month. Lets assume that housing prices come in 20% and you get the same house in five years for $600,000. Rates are now around 8.75% which is still on a historical basis not terrible. You will be paying $4797 for the same house that you could have been enjoying for the last 5 years and paying $50 less per month on.
[Assume you find a great house for $750,0o0 and get at 15 year fixxed loan. At current rates with a 20% down payment it will cost you $4747 per month. Lets assume that housing prices come in 20% and you get the same house in five years for $600,000. Rates are now around 8.75% which is still on a historical basis not terrible. You will be paying $4797 for the same house that you could have been enjoying for the last 5 years and paying $50 less per month on. [/B][/QUOTE]
LOL. Aint economics fascinatin'? Im still trying to figure out which one is you in them pictures. Do you have kind of a greenish complexion?
LOL. Aint economics fascinatin'? Im still trying to figure out which one is you in them pictures. Do you have kind of a greenish complexion?