Random Rants and Market Ideas by Brandonf
- Thread starter Brandonf
- Start date
Welcome back, Brandon. Very sorry about your condition. I truly hope that this will go away and you won't have to experience this pain again. Best wishes.
Thanks, I am glad to be back. I hope it will go away too, and slowly it is getting better. There for awhile though it was really touch and go. A few times I felt like I could not go on and I wanted to call Dr Kavorkian, but gladly I did not and things have improved to the point that I am getting around, working and living like a human being again.
Brandon
After only two down days the markets rallied sharply on Thursday showing us the strength of the current bull market. The S&P500 closed up 7.11 points to 1285.04, while the Nasdaq Composite rallied 22.17, closing at 2301.81. Advancers beat out decliners by roughly 2-1 on both exchanges (2355 to 970 on the Big Board, 2,096 to 943 on the Nasdaq). Volume on the New York Exchange was up 12% versus the prior session to 2.5 billion shares, while Nasdaq volume increased 1% to 2.38 billion shares. This marks the second straight accumulation day, remember I considered Thursday to be an accumulation day rather than a distribution day- if you want to know why please refer to yesterdays video.
The fact that the market continues to get bad news thrown at it and shrugs it off is remarkable and should NOT be ignored by traders. For whatever reason a good number of traders seem to think that the market operates rationally, and in stubbornly holding on to this theory they tend to be seperated from their money rather quickly. The fact that a lot of bad news keeps coming out and the market charges higher is bullish, if only for the short to intermediate term. My own opinion though is that this move is going to have legs, and I would not be suprised to see a bull strong bull market this year on par with the move seen in 2003. Technicians should look at a monthly chart of the Nasdaq Composite. You will notice that we traded in an ugly and brutal sideways range from January of 2003 until December of 2005 when it finally broke out ON VOLUME to the upside. After this kind of long base a breakout on heavy volume USUALLY has follow through, and it can be substantial.
The most important thing as a trader though is not to fall in love. When you take a position in a stock you are not standing up on the alter and vowing till death do us part in front of God, your friends and your entire family. You need to coninue to evaluate positions on a daily basis, making sure your fundamental assumptions have not changed. If the reasns you are in a stock or index still apply then you should probably continue to hold it, however if the situations changes you should have no hesitation at all to dump it and move on to greener pastures. This is the hallmark of a trader.
Currently I am long TRLG, MDY, IWM, EWJ, EWS, KF, GSF, LCAV and MRVL. Of these all have very nice open profits with the exception of MRVL which was opened yesterday and is currently negative. I am watching PACR and SYKE very closely for upside breakouts as both have been in tight ranges for 1 year plus, and a breakout could provide substantial upside as both companies are managed very well and are in good sectors.
The fact that the market continues to get bad news thrown at it and shrugs it off is remarkable and should NOT be ignored by traders. For whatever reason a good number of traders seem to think that the market operates rationally, and in stubbornly holding on to this theory they tend to be seperated from their money rather quickly. The fact that a lot of bad news keeps coming out and the market charges higher is bullish, if only for the short to intermediate term. My own opinion though is that this move is going to have legs, and I would not be suprised to see a bull strong bull market this year on par with the move seen in 2003. Technicians should look at a monthly chart of the Nasdaq Composite. You will notice that we traded in an ugly and brutal sideways range from January of 2003 until December of 2005 when it finally broke out ON VOLUME to the upside. After this kind of long base a breakout on heavy volume USUALLY has follow through, and it can be substantial.
The most important thing as a trader though is not to fall in love. When you take a position in a stock you are not standing up on the alter and vowing till death do us part in front of God, your friends and your entire family. You need to coninue to evaluate positions on a daily basis, making sure your fundamental assumptions have not changed. If the reasns you are in a stock or index still apply then you should probably continue to hold it, however if the situations changes you should have no hesitation at all to dump it and move on to greener pastures. This is the hallmark of a trader.
Currently I am long TRLG, MDY, IWM, EWJ, EWS, KF, GSF, LCAV and MRVL. Of these all have very nice open profits with the exception of MRVL which was opened yesterday and is currently negative. I am watching PACR and SYKE very closely for upside breakouts as both have been in tight ranges for 1 year plus, and a breakout could provide substantial upside as both companies are managed very well and are in good sectors.
On the short side there are a few sectors that do stand out. Right now the Semi's have not been acting well (which does not bode greatly for the market) and also HMOs such as WLP. This group has broken its strong uptrend and is in the first phases of a downtrend, this is generally the best area to short from.