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Random Rants and Market Ideas by Brandonf
- Thread starter Brandonf
- Start date
Quote from Brandonf:
Update
Longs
Skyw from $28.08. Stops under $28.60
KF from $30.70. Stops under $30.70
LRCX from $34.00. Stopped out at $34.40
RTH long from $94.34. Stops under $93.80
GOOG long from $343.90. Stops under 345.
WFMI from $136.60. Stopped out at $138.44
SHLD long from $124.13. Stops under $120.
Shorts
IVGN stopped out for a loss of 83 cents.
Brandon
PS..I hardly slept at all last night due to the hurricane. I doubt I will put on anything new today or come uo with any profound observations.
Goog
24-Oct-05 347.2478271 264.2410359
27-Oct-05 346.7653382 263.758547
30-Oct-05 346.2664594 263.2596683
2-Nov-05 345.7509334 262.7441422
5-Nov-05 345.2185025 262.2117114
I think I'll wait till 264 area...trend is north...but over bought still IMHO
GL
Quote from kalzayani:
Goog
24-Oct-05 347.2478271 264.2410359
27-Oct-05 346.7653382 263.758547
30-Oct-05 346.2664594 263.2596683
2-Nov-05 345.7509334 262.7441422
5-Nov-05 345.2185025 262.2117114
I think I'll wait till 264 area...trend is north...but over bought still IMHO
GL
IVGN...seems short stock
24-Oct-05 73.69 63.89
27-Oct-05 73.53 63.73
30-Oct-05 73.36 63.57
2-Nov-05 73.20 63.40
5-Nov-05 73.03 63.23
Quote from kalzayani:
Goog
24-Oct-05 347.2478271 264.2410359
27-Oct-05 346.7653382 263.758547
30-Oct-05 346.2664594 263.2596683
2-Nov-05 345.7509334 262.7441422
5-Nov-05 345.2185025 262.2117114
I think I'll wait till 264 area...trend is north...but over bought still IMHO
GL
You still confuse the hell out of me with all your numbers. Anyway, I hope it works for you. Best of luck.
As a private money manager and trader I have three equally important objectives.
My first charge is simply to not lose the money I am trusted with. Put simply I can not make a penny for myself and my investors tomorrow if I blow out today. This is a matter that, much to their own detriment, far to few traders consider in their quest for profits. It has led to a lot of misery and has accounted for the lost of countless fortunes in the market.
Respecting risk and taking it into account occurs in several ways. When you place a trade for example. For the majority of traders the primary question is "How much will I make on this transaction?" but that is, in my experience, a mistake that always eventually catches up with you. The first question should be along the lines of risk and should address several matters. How likely is it this trade will not work out? If it does not work out, how much will it cost me? What if the worst possible thing happens, what will that cost me? Can I take this type of loss, both financially and emotionally. If these questions have a positive answer then you should plan your trade and take it according to that plan. This simple process will lead to a huge reduction in the number of losing trades, and should increase profits.
I am not saying there are not pockets of opportunity that you should be agressive with. There are! I am also not saying you should trade for anything other than to win. Tentative, chicken little traders eventally lose everything too in a slow and miserable way. If you are not trading to win, you won't, but there is a differance between prudent speculation and reckless risk taking.
This brings us to the market right now. For some scalpers and daytraders this enviornment has been ideal, but it has not been for me. Follow through has been spotty at best. We remain in a wide range that has been in the market for years now. The market gives every indication of heading higher, and then it immediatly falls apart. It then gives strong buy sell signals before it rallies sharply higher. If you allow it, this type of market can take all of your money and sanity.
The good news is that we are traders, and traders have the ability to be as flexable as they want to be. This is a huge edge that institutions do not have. Unfortunatly far too few individual traders allow themselves to benefit from this freedom, but just because it is under used does not mean its not there.
In the past month and a half I have been very bullish twice and very bearish three times. It's true that this type of flexability is what has allowed me to produce superior returns since 1998, but when the changes are that profound in a short period of time then one has to wonder "Am I suffering from a bi-polar disorder??" Since I am not then I have to do something to protect myself and my client's from this type of market action.
To do that CASH is king. In the third quarter I was up just shy of 20% which so far represents my smallest quarterly return this year. Since I am paid on absolute performance, but not until the end of the year, I have decided to go into a very defensive mode for the time being. This could change if I see things in the market justify a change, but for the time being my number one obsession is going to be to protect the gains I have. The best way to do that is by not eating into them with new trades in a difficult market.When my stance changes I will let you know right away, but for the time being I am going to utilize only 20% of my cash on hand. The rest is going to collect interest in a money market.
My first charge is simply to not lose the money I am trusted with. Put simply I can not make a penny for myself and my investors tomorrow if I blow out today. This is a matter that, much to their own detriment, far to few traders consider in their quest for profits. It has led to a lot of misery and has accounted for the lost of countless fortunes in the market.
Respecting risk and taking it into account occurs in several ways. When you place a trade for example. For the majority of traders the primary question is "How much will I make on this transaction?" but that is, in my experience, a mistake that always eventually catches up with you. The first question should be along the lines of risk and should address several matters. How likely is it this trade will not work out? If it does not work out, how much will it cost me? What if the worst possible thing happens, what will that cost me? Can I take this type of loss, both financially and emotionally. If these questions have a positive answer then you should plan your trade and take it according to that plan. This simple process will lead to a huge reduction in the number of losing trades, and should increase profits.
I am not saying there are not pockets of opportunity that you should be agressive with. There are! I am also not saying you should trade for anything other than to win. Tentative, chicken little traders eventally lose everything too in a slow and miserable way. If you are not trading to win, you won't, but there is a differance between prudent speculation and reckless risk taking.
This brings us to the market right now. For some scalpers and daytraders this enviornment has been ideal, but it has not been for me. Follow through has been spotty at best. We remain in a wide range that has been in the market for years now. The market gives every indication of heading higher, and then it immediatly falls apart. It then gives strong buy sell signals before it rallies sharply higher. If you allow it, this type of market can take all of your money and sanity.
The good news is that we are traders, and traders have the ability to be as flexable as they want to be. This is a huge edge that institutions do not have. Unfortunatly far too few individual traders allow themselves to benefit from this freedom, but just because it is under used does not mean its not there.
In the past month and a half I have been very bullish twice and very bearish three times. It's true that this type of flexability is what has allowed me to produce superior returns since 1998, but when the changes are that profound in a short period of time then one has to wonder "Am I suffering from a bi-polar disorder??" Since I am not then I have to do something to protect myself and my client's from this type of market action.
To do that CASH is king. In the third quarter I was up just shy of 20% which so far represents my smallest quarterly return this year. Since I am paid on absolute performance, but not until the end of the year, I have decided to go into a very defensive mode for the time being. This could change if I see things in the market justify a change, but for the time being my number one obsession is going to be to protect the gains I have. The best way to do that is by not eating into them with new trades in a difficult market.When my stance changes I will let you know right away, but for the time being I am going to utilize only 20% of my cash on hand. The rest is going to collect interest in a money market.
Quote from Brandonf:
As a private money manager and trader I have three equally important objectives.
My first charge is simply to not lose the money I am trusted with.
Sorry what were the other two? So your up 80% on the year trading OPM. Why the end of year distribution setup? Nobody wanted to pay your quarterly or did you set it up that way?
nice results.
Quote from Avalanche:
Sorry what were the other two? So your up 80% on the year trading OPM. Why the end of year distribution setup? Nobody wanted to pay your quarterly or did you set it up that way?
nice results.
I am up just under 70% for the year. I used to be paid 25% on a quarterly basis above a high water mark and performance benchmark, however I then had a large client come in that was willing to pay only on a year end basis at 20%. Because it was a substantial amount of money I changed my payment frequency for all accounts and allowed him to pay the smaller fee as as well.
Brandon
brandonf, just for comparison purposes, What is your average gain/loss and % right?
Do you sell off target, say 25% or do you wait until the trend ends (lower low, etc)
Also, are you finding the majority of your gains are coming from a few trades (iei what %, like 80% of gains from 20% of trades?)
It seems most people who trade breakouts make around 70%-100% a year in this type of market
But I agree with so many breakouts failing and NYSE making more lows than highs (like yesterday when Dow +150pts) you gotta pretty much stand aside.
I traded breakouts two months ago (as I'm trying different methods) and overall I ended up roughly breakeven but thats mostly cause my longs got flushed on that lean a few weeks ago on the index. Now I'm back to trading my 'old' method to see if it works better in this method (basically scalping big time frames, I look for no follow thru cause u dont get any).
Another problem u run into is that once you start trading size you will be forced to start buying inside the base since your buying will start causing the breakout or the breakout will move faster than you can get in out.. at least what I observed from breakout traders.
Why do so many ppl say breakout trading doesn't work? Everyone bashes it but off decent bases or setups its simplicity and profitability its good.
I find breakout trading works best in this market with some target like 25-30% since mostly you get goo dbreakouts then they reverse.
Nice work, 70% YTD is fantastic in this market!
Do you sell off target, say 25% or do you wait until the trend ends (lower low, etc)
Also, are you finding the majority of your gains are coming from a few trades (iei what %, like 80% of gains from 20% of trades?)
It seems most people who trade breakouts make around 70%-100% a year in this type of market
But I agree with so many breakouts failing and NYSE making more lows than highs (like yesterday when Dow +150pts) you gotta pretty much stand aside.
I traded breakouts two months ago (as I'm trying different methods) and overall I ended up roughly breakeven but thats mostly cause my longs got flushed on that lean a few weeks ago on the index. Now I'm back to trading my 'old' method to see if it works better in this method (basically scalping big time frames, I look for no follow thru cause u dont get any).
Another problem u run into is that once you start trading size you will be forced to start buying inside the base since your buying will start causing the breakout or the breakout will move faster than you can get in out.. at least what I observed from breakout traders.
Why do so many ppl say breakout trading doesn't work? Everyone bashes it but off decent bases or setups its simplicity and profitability its good.
I find breakout trading works best in this market with some target like 25-30% since mostly you get goo dbreakouts then they reverse.
Nice work, 70% YTD is fantastic in this market!
Quote from Brandonf:
I am up just under 70% for the year. I used to be paid 25% on a quarterly basis above a high water mark and performance benchmark, however I then had a large client come in that was willing to pay only on a year end basis at 20%. Because it was a substantial amount of money I changed my payment frequency for all accounts and allowed him to pay the smaller fee as as well.
Brandon
nice job. 70% is a big number that probably puts you in the top .1% of all money managers.