Random Rants and All the Other Goodies

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TSaimoto

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Well, a few people have asked to start a journal. And I've decided to start one up. I don't know what to write about so I'll just start writing what I feel at that time. I might post a system on here, write about Gann, psychology stuff, analysis, actual trades and etc. etc. I really don't know, I'll just let the journal build itself to what ever it will become. I just hope along the course, it can be valuable to me and others reading this.

A bit about me:

1. I'm a Gann Analyst. Not a Gann Trader. I analyze the market at the end of the day with Gann Analysis. I can duplicate his work up to 80%. Why 80%? I don't use astology in my analysis. My Gann Analysis comes from Time Aspects, Angles, Price and Time Ratio and etc. meaning it all comes from the charts. I've also noticed from Astro-Gann Prophecy's newsletters that I get the same kind of conclusion from only charts so I still don't feel the need to get into it. At least I can explain the Law of Vibration unlike some Gann Prophecies. (I'm not a Gann Master, though)

2. I'm a system trader. I trade only with a system. I don't follow all the signals that the system gives me but I only trade when the signals come out. I pick out the signals from the system based on the daily analysis I make, and also my personal market feel.

3. I analyze the system a lot. Monte Carlo... System Equity Analysis... Diversification... etc. etc. It's part of what I do. I also constantly work on a new system.

4. I trade ES, NQ for Intraday. I trade other commodities(Corn, Gold, Oil, etc. etc.) using EOD. But I'm going to stick to Indexes when I write stuff.

5. I program. EasyLanguage, WealthScript, and a rusty C/C++. No Excel stuff. Why need it, if I can do all these?

6. I can read fast and read a lot of things. I'm a speed reader and can finish a 200 page paperback in about 15 min. Still, I don't have photographic memory so when I quote something, I may be off a little.(I'm bragging)

7. I'm 25 years old. So what? You decide whether age has something to do with trading.

8. I'll have a lot of grammar mistakes because I just type through without checking back. I apologize if I don't express things clearly.

That's a breif brag about myself. If you have questions, please write on the thread, I will NOT answer PM regarding the thread and what I write on here. But I don't think I'll get any anyways.

PS. I took the title from Aphie.
 
I'm gonna start yakking about systems or the trend of the type of systems.

All you see is volatility these days. Volatility Breakout, Volatility Stops, Standard Dev, VIX, ATR, Volatility alpha, beta, gamma... I think 90% of what we read in magazines and books are using Volatility. I'm getting scared with this. When the Turtle system came out a lot of people went into breakouts, ATR, and % capital risk. Soon those things started to lag and now there's turtle soup and reversal patterns based on them. And they are equally working.

I'm just feeling that Volatility stuff is going to go the same way. Everybody's using it. Some guy in here actually wrote ATR stops are the only viable stops in trading. That's really outrageous, and a scary thing so I'm planning on using a non-... anti-.... volatility system now.

But one thing I can say is this, a lot advanced system traders are now looking into adaptive stuff. Adaptive Moving Average, Adaptive RSI, Adaptive... everything....

I'm currently using a volatility breakout system but planning on changing to an adaptive MACD system. I have the core system with entry but I need to fill in a few more details before I need to put it to use.

Volatility is in a dangerous trend.
 
OK, I just read a thread about Fib #s. Here's what a Gann guy has to say.

1. Gann Analysis does not include Fibonacci Ratio.

2. When you use a chart Fib. Ratio are evident and Gann Analysis uses charts, sometimes the Fibonacci Ratio appears in Gann Analysis.

The reason is because Fibonacci Ratios are evident in Price not Time. So what is happening is, the price is hitting a Fibonacci Resistance and the time balancing out. Because Gann Angles deals with both time and price, due to that, the Gann Angles are in a "Time and Price" Overbalance. Sometimes, the time seems to be in Fibonacci Ratio but it's the same thing.

Overbalancing of Time and Price is important. It can give you the balancing point of the cycles in the chart which can help you find the correct pitch for the angles. Well, some people call it the "True 1 x 1 Angle". Anyways, from the True 1 x 1 angle, you will derive the squares necessary from the top. The squares derived from the "True 1x1 Angles" will give you the "True 50% retracement" level. It's a lot different from what a lot of people consider to be.

It's complicated but if you're a Gann student, it's some ideas about what angles are. From there you'll be able to connect the Even and Odd Spiral Charts, extract individual cycles and time periods and so on. It's all part of Law of Vibration.
 
in Time. We just bottomed at the 1.618 in time of the previous leg down on October 1st.

In addtion, volatility trading is only dangerous if its used out if its context. The only thing volatility does is revert.
 
Originally posted by TSaimoto
OK, So what is happening is, the price is hitting a Fibonacci Resistance and the time balancing out.
More...

you are saying that price seem to bounce from fib levels because it is TIME for it to bounce not because it suppose to bounce when it hit fib levels ?
 
It's also 75%. 21 Bars and 28 Bars.

OK, I'm not going to debate whether Gann / Elliott is viable or not. I've been through that too many times and I know it's not going to take me or you anywhere.

What I can say is, there is a relationship between Gann and Fib# even though, Fib# are not part of Gann Analysis.

I mentioned Fibonacci Ratios only in price because of Fourier Analysis. The frequency of the cycle is constant but the amplitude of the cycle changes. The Fibonacci Ratio frequently occuring is related to the shift of amplitude of the market by Root 5.

Root 5(R5) = 2.236...

(2.236 - 1) = 1.236

1.236 / 1 = 0.809

0.809 * 2 = 1.618

Before someone replies... I hope, I'd like to clear things up:

1x1 angle = 1 box by 1 box

2x1 angle = 2 box by 1 box = the hypotenuse of the square is Root 5. All this given... it's more important to know how to apply it to profits using Gann. Good Luck and study hard.
 
You made a mistake in the examples on getting the Fib #'s. Check and see the mistake.

It's 1.236/2 = 0.618

Peace and Good trade!

trend456:D
 
OH... I get it...

It's

1.236 / 2... = .618

or

1 / 1.236 * 2 = 1.618

geez... thank you... but you get the picture right?

It's been a while since I mathematically confirmed all this... gimme a break...

Sorry, bad excuse from me... LOL
 
Hey Quiet ButDeadly,

I agree the Fib #'s are evident in Time. But, if you are a Gann trader you have to consider both time and price together. You have to understand the relationship of price and time. Most people generally talk about price or time and do not explain the relationship. Gann's technique are tools that specifically tell you the relationship of time and price. You can't have one to find the reversal in trends. You need to stick both of them together.

Well... enough said.

trend456
 
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