random entry trading

Quote from walterjennings:



like my assumption that a trailing stop skews percentages on random entry. this idea is extremely basic but very significant to future research if shown.

i have a feeling that any random entry point has a 50/50 chance of going up or down. but as the position ages, and the stop is not hit. the probability of profit or loss is no longer 50/50, since we know the market is not purely random.


its nice to see someone on ET supporting their beliefs with a little math, unlike hounddog's post above, presenting his opinion as 'fact' (maybe he should use the terms 'i think' or 'i believe' more). this is very refreshing and i applaud you.

but i think you have the 'random' 50/50 chance of loss / gain on a random entry confused with a 50/50 chance concerning market movement. which is not random (not 50/50). depending if the market stops out right away, or moves up, the probability of it moving in either direction is not 50/50, it greatly (or possibly solely) dependant on market conditions, which the stops / takes could possibly help prune / detect. what do you think asap?


you're right.

i was referring to a simple fair game ie coin toss.

in the market an edge that could be achieved and sustained would translate into positive expectancy. A TS could be part of it or not, it is up to you. in my experience the TS is not a good method because the market is most often in whipsaw mode which is a behavior that arises from multiple stops being placed around the then current price. That is the way the market eliminates such an edge. in the end, most stop traders end up exiting their position at the least favorable price. A TS or SL for that matter are just a reflection of the typical emotional aspects of trading, that is, greed and fear.

so to answer your question, the SL and TS could be of help if properly configured to avoid whipsaws, etc, etc, but i doubt they'd be the cornerstone of any successful system, because everybody is using them and most traders lose money.

from a mathematical standpoint, they dont yield positive expectancy as proved earlier, in fact, if you add the slippage and comm costs to the equation, the SL and TS would look much worse because they amplify the weighting of these costs in the strategy PL thereby sinking expectancy.

now if you've attained an edge that consists in, say, picking the exact moment when the contract is about to trend and adapt your SL and TS accordingly, you'd got yourself an edge. but the edge is based on your skills to consistently pick the moment, not in the SL or TS itself. Those two are just the weapons you chose to use from your arsenal, in order to take advantage of your edge.
 
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