Ramblings of a degenerate gambler

Millionaire said:
Most of a traders edge comes from cutting losers and riding winners although study helps too.
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Hello Millionaire,

You nailed it.

Only way to make alot of money trading is to take good guess and gambling. Guess the Entry, and guess the exit. Do it for next XXXX trades.

Manually Trading is Gambling.

Automated Trading is the only way to find and confirm Edge.
 
SimpleMeLike said:
That is not true. Automation requires having entry and exit signal that is optimal based on historical tick data or OHLC data points. Everyone else has the historical tick data or OHLC data points as well, and will fine your optimal entry and exit. You trying to compete against computer Ph.d scientist and high powered server by your self and your little server.

And you still have to beat the SP 500 index returns year to year. Too much work and you better be a good programmer and ready back test 300 trading ideas a year. All that work to find 1 or 2 systems AND build a portfolio of algos to try and beat the SP 500 index returns.

While guess what I am doing? Just investing in the SP 500 index monthly and kicking the algos portfolio return ass. And I spend 0 seconds per month doing this and sleep 6-8 hours a night. While you clicking Back test and Optimize button 1000 times a month and programming AND your portfolio of algos still might not beat the SP 500 index. Plus you will get scared during drawdown and turn off algos, and then turn it back on playing around.

Like I said, automation is bullshit and waste of time and makes no money. Better to discretionary trader with eyes on chart.

I do not know any algos or portfolio of algos beating the SP 500 index returns year after year.

Work smarter not harder.
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Seems like you have tried automated trading and you failed. Too bad for you.
It's not because you cannot do something that it is necessary bullshit or impossible to do.
It's not because you don't know any algo beating the S&P that all of them cannot do it.

Trading is not competing against someone else. It's not competing against the market neither. Trading is not playing poker or any other games.

If you have found your way of doing money with trading, good for you. But there are many ways of doing it. Automated trading is one of them, and I like it because it removes all the psychology and emotion associated with trading. 2 aspects that are usually related to failure.

My 2 cents.
 
Gambling is a negative expectation game. You are guaranteed to lose. Take your best shot. Trading is a positive expectation game, provided you know what you are doing and have an edge. That edge is your positive expectation which stacks the odds in your favor. You will still have losses but, your losses would be much, much smaller than your gains. Win percentage does not matter. Huge gains do.
 
smallfil said:
Gambling is a negative expectation game. You are guaranteed to lose. Take your best shot. Trading is a positive expectation game, provided you know what you are doing and have an edge. That edge is your positive expectation which stacks the odds in your favor. You will still have losses but, your losses would be much, much smaller than your gains. Win percentage does not matter. Huge gains do.
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Hello smallfil,

Where does a trader obtain trading edge from?

Thanks,
 
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rb7 said:
Seems like you have tried automated trading and you failed. Too bad for you.
It's not because you cannot do something that it is necessary bullshit or impossible to do.
It's not because you don't know any algo beating the S&P that all of them cannot do it.

Trading is not competing against someone else. It's not competing against the market neither. Trading is not playing poker or any other games.

If you have found your way of doing money with trading, good for you. But there are many ways of doing it. Automated trading is one of them, and I like it because it removes all the psychology and emotion associated with trading. 2 aspects that are usually related to failure.

My 2 cents.
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I did not lose money with algo trading at all. But it was farrr too much work and backtesting and optimization with little reward.

manual trading less stressful and rewarding. Make my trades for the day and end the day.
 
SimpleMeLike said:
Hello smallfil,

Where does a trader obtain trading edge from?

Thanks,
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Your trading edge is built into your trading system. Either you have a good trading system with an edge or a bad trading system without an edge. How to know? Backtest it. There are no shortcuts. Here is a clue. "Any trading system going against the major trend in the Stockmarket is more likely, a losing trading system." Think about it, you are going against the big boys (hedge funds, mutual funds, brokers, banks) each time you trade against the trend. Go gamble in Las Vegas instead, you will get food and free rooms at least, for all your huge losses. "Trade with the trend, not against it."
 
Bad day -$1900.
Was down $4800 at one point :wtf:
That was too big a hole to dig myself out of.

Emotionally i don't feel bad, because -$1900 feels like a win compared to -$4800.

Day1: +$2200
Day2: +$1200
Day3: +$2200
Day4: +$1800
Day5: +$1400
Day6: +$2000
Day7: -$1900
 
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Millionaire said:
Bad day -$1900.
Was down $4800 at one point :wtf:
That was too big a hole to dig myself out of.

Emotionally i don't feel bad, because -$1900 feels like a win compared to -$4800.

Day1: +$2200
Day2: +$1200
Day3: +$2200
Day4: +$1800
Day5: +$1400
Day6: +$2000
Day7: -$1900
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Make that money buddy.

Feels good just taking a good guess right buddy.

I also have drawdown, I scale up to like 5 contracts sometimes to get back even when I feel I will be right and get that win. I just go for it.
 
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