Ralph Waldo Emerson advise for Powell...

[M.W.]

Does it occur to you that even Fed members don't have more forecasting power than any other professional in this market? It was not clear at the onset of price increases whether they will be temporarily elevated or not. The entire resource saga also did not occur overnight but unfolded over many months until now. I held the view, which I clearly articulated in many threads that I see inflation as more permanent and positioned accordingly but that was my view, I had no certainty that this must be how it will play out.

Re cnbc cry baby he always acts like a nut after the fact. Same in 2008. Yelling does not lend this guy any credibility.

Yes, but Powell had his frigging chance to fix this inflation early on. And yet he just dicked around wasting all opportunities. Do you remember when he miscalculated by saying he believed this inflation would be temporary? He didn't need to raise the interest rate by 0.75% had he started sooner. The guy has no clue IMO.

The following video demonstrates how I feel about Powell. He needs to get his hands dirty. He can't just act like an academic living in some ivory tower:

 

[M.W.]

Can you point us to the earliest posts you made how bad inflation was and how quickly fed must act?

In fact I, along with others here, have been bitching about why Powell was dragging his damn feet when even a little kid could sense that price was out of control. I argued at the time that there was no need to wait until the inflation is so high that we had to bring in someone like Paul Volcker (aka hatchetman) to bring the runaway inflation back down that would ultimately, in turn, cause a severe recession.

AND THAT'S WHAT EXACTLY HAPPENED WITH POWELL HIMSELF AS THE REINCARNATION OF PAUL VOLCKER.

See the link to the thread below. Oh, how much this pisses me off, you can't even imagine!

Do we need a runaway inflation before someone like Volcker steps in?
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-before-someone-like-volcker-steps-in.361992/

Edit: I'm re-reading that thread and OMG all those idiots who said I was crazy at the time are the same idiots who are now bitching about Powell.

 

[SunTrader]

The giant problem for the FED is dealing with $31 Trillion of direct debt (General Obligations of the U.S. Government).
This situation came from Congress, not the FED.
That's the law.

If any people here are struggling with staying profitable in this very bearish environment,
watch youtubes with independent thinkers. like this guy, an organic Chem Prof at Cornell, who also trades the stock market.

Brilliant, bring politics into. But not even ours. A dictator's.

 

[schizo]

Can you point us to the earliest posts you made how bad inflation was and how quickly fed must act?

Probably not. I have over 11,000 posts to my name and most of the posts regarding hyperinflation were haphazardly strung together with other comments, so it wouldn't make sense to sift through all those posts just to find what you need. But the thread that was previously mentioned above is like the pinnacle of my disgust with Powell's foot dragging policy. By the time I created that thread, inflation was already neck high...but Powell didn't do shit.

Anyway, having searched using the keyword "inflation", I found this post going back to 2020 (wherein I said prices were going through the roof):
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/how-coronavirus-became-a-corporate-credit-run.341648/#post-5037348

(Be sure to read the posts below mine.)

 

[M.W.]

Prices hardly went through any roof in the first half of 2020, more importantly you expected the Fed to raise rates straight into the covid pandemic? If they had done that none of our brokers or any other corporation would have survived. But I give you credit for having pointed to rising prices a lot earlier than others, so have I and we can agree that the Fed acted too late and then too rapidly because they were, like always, behind the curve. Put yourself in their shoes. Would you rather react or make some bold gamble and catch the economy on the exactly wrong foot at the wrong time and make yourself to a laughing stock in the entire world? I doubt it. Easy to puke on the Fed and blame it for everything. I would recommend we start blaming politicians first who are beholden to corporate interest and sold out to libbyism. If fighting corruption is not higher up on your agenda than criticising the Fed then I don't know what else to say.

Probably not. I have over 11,000 posts to my name and most of the posts regarding hyperinflation were haphazardly strung together with other comments, so it wouldn't make sense to sift through all those posts just to find what you need. But the thread that was previously mentioned above is like the pinnacle of my disgust with Powell's foot dragging policy. By the time I created that thread, inflation was already neck high...but Powell didn't do shit.

Anyway, having searched using the keyword "inflation", I found this post going back to 2020 (wherein I said prices were going through the roof):
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/how-coronavirus-became-a-corporate-credit-run.341648/#post-5037348

(Be sure to read the posts below mine.)

 

[schizo]

Prices hardly went through any roof in the first half of 2020, more importantly you expected the Fed to raise rates straight into the covid pandemic? If they had done that none of our brokers or any other corporation would have survived. But I give you credit for having pointed to rising prices a lot earlier than others, so have I and we can agree that the Fed acted too late and then too rapidly because they were, like always, behind the curve. Put yourself in their shoes. Would you rather react or make some bold gamble and catch the economy on the exactly wrong foot at the wrong time and make yourself to a laughing stock in the entire world? I doubt it. Easy to puke on the Fed and blame it for everything. I would recommend we start blaming politicians first who are beholden to corporate interest and sold out to libbyism. If fighting corruption is not higher up on your agenda than criticising the Fed then I don't know what else to say.

Powell could have done a better job by at least not doing another round of QE. On the flip side, he could have started sooner with smaller consecutive rate hikes. That would have resulted in a better shape than we are in now. It's always too little too late with them, followed by some friggin' draconian measures. And I'm not just puking on Powell. This was the same problem with Bernanke and even Greenspan.

And let's not get economics all mixed up with politics, even though that may be your specialty. You don't need to remind me how corrupt our politicians are or how greedy as f*ck companies are. That's another issue altogether. As for the topic of this thread, Fed and their economists are totally separated from reality and, frankly, incompetent. They will never be able to get a grip on the economy. I've never seen it happen in my 30 years as a trader. Never.

 

[M.W.]

I think we are in a pretty good shape other than the massive QE. Inflation is being fought full throttle and the economy is only sliding at a slow pace in a controlled fashion. (though I believe the majority of the sell-off is still before us) not bad given the massive rate hikes.

Anyway, we may not always see eye to eye but I really do appreciate your adherence to facts and truth and appreciate eyour communication style. Thanks for that.

Powell could have done a better job by at least not doing another round of QE. On the flip side, he could have started sooner with smaller consecutive rate hikes. That would have resulted in a better shape than we are in now. It's always too little too late with them, followed by some friggin' draconian measures. And I'm not just puking on Powell. This was the same problem with Bernanke and even Greenspan.

And let's not get economics all mixed up with politics, even though that may be your specialty. You don't need to remind me how corrupt our politicians are or how greedy as f*ck companies are. That's another issue altogether. As for the topic of this thread, Fed and their economists are totally separated from reality and, frankly, incompetent. They will never be able to get a grip on the economy. I've never seen it happen in my 30 years as a trader. Never.

 

[SunTrader]

Here is a chart to ponder - unless you are one of those folks who don't get what I post.

$SPX weekly chart (black OHLC bars) and Fed QE turned to QT (red line) starting as of 4/15/22 (blue arrow) along with 2022 rate hikes and dates. From my perspective, market reaction to the hikes overall has been positive and to move up ... short term.

Then QT starts to assert itself.

But what do I know.

 

[countryBoy641]

Brilliant, bring politics into. But not even ours. A dictator's.

Clearly you do not understand the economic situation
***HAS NOTHING WHATSOEVER TO DO WITH POLITICS***
The U.S. currently has $31 Trillion national debt.
This has been amassed over decades, but much worse in recent years.
And it may be a surprise to you, but the country
DOES NOT HAVE THE TAX RECEIPTS
TO PAY DEBT SERVICE + DOD + ENTITLEMENTS.
This is commonly called MATH, NOT POLITICS.
No charge for educating you.
Have a nice day.
***
A word of advice:
Hurling insults is rarely a good strategy.
It just expands until everybody is hurling insults.

 

[SunTrader]

....
This has been amassed over decades, but much worse in recent years.
...

Thank you for making my point.

Now back to the topic.