Hedge Funds: Game Over
Hedge-Fund Managers Make Midair Pitches
Small-Fry Firms' Hopes Take Off On Eos Flight of Captive Investors Amid Delicate Time for Industry
âWall Street Journal
There was an interview in, I believe, Barronâs several years ago, consisting of a roundtable discussion among some of the smartest minds in technology investing.
When the subject came to microprocessorsâthe chips that drive the computers we all useâand whether to invest in market-leader Intel or perennial Number Two AMD, one of the smartest of the smartest minds at the table said this:
.
âItâs game overâIntel won.â
Unfortunately for the magazine's readers, AMD stock proceeded to triple while Intel languished. In hindsight, his words had been spoken at or near the absolute bottom in AMDâs stock price, precisely because all the bad news about AMD that made it such an easily dismissed company in the pages of a financial magazine had already been reflected in the stock price.
Things could only get better for AMD, and they did, thanks to a new CEO and a new generation of microprocessors that caught Intel flat-footed, making AMDânot Intelâthe microprocessor stock to own at the very moment it was declared âgame over.â
Which is why I hesitate to declare anything so bold as âgame overâ for anything but, say, the Red Sox without Manny Ramirez.
Still, once in a while, things get so out of handâsuch as last summerâs Time Magazine cover article about âWhy We Love Our Homes,â which marked the absolute top in the U.S. Housing Bubbleâthat the phrase comes to mind and refuses to leave.
And Fridayâs Wall Street Journal article about hedge fund managers pitching their funds on New York-to-London flights is about as obvious a sign of a top as I have seen since, well, âWhy We Love Our Homes.â
I have tried to figure out how to excerpt the article, with appropriate comments, as I did the housing story last summer, but I find the hedge fund article is so full of fin-de-siecle whoppers that commentary merely detracts from the entire experience.
It begins thusly:
As Eos Airlines Flight 2 lurched amid heavy turbulence on Saturday night, hedge-fund manager Kurt Hovan tried to stay on course, making his pitch to a prospective investor.
The 25-minute sales job by Mr. Hovan, manager of a $21 million health-care fund, fell flat. The investor didn't bite -- he said the fund was too tiny and its investment team too green.
Mr. Hovan was one of a handful of small-fry hedge-fund managers whose hopes took off with the Eos flight. Each paid $3,900 for a round-trip seat on the New York-London trip. The draw: to mingle with captive big-time investors and make sales pitches over champagne and canapes. Investors rode free of charge.
"It's speed dating for hedge funds," says Bartt Kellermann of Global Capital Acquisition, which raises money for hedge funds. If investors express interest, Mr. Kellermann arranges follow-up in-flight dinner dates.
For the rest of it, including the hedge fund manager who believes he deserves a 2-and-20 fee structure because of his returns since inception all of 18 months ago, I will only suggest you dig up Fridayâs newspaper or, more realistically, check it out online and read it from beginning to end.
As Time Magazineâs everybody-in-the-housing-pool cover story last summer proved, the smart money does not invest in a trend when it is front-page newsâespecially not when cracks in the foundation, such as the Miami condo market back then, and the Amaranth fiasco today, are visible.
Which is why Iâm calling âgame overâ in hedge fund land. Buyers on the New York-to-London flights, beware...or at least insist on a longer track record than Britney Spears' latest marriage, which, for the record, will be two years in November.
Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up