continued.........
6. Monitoring
Once a trader has a position in the market he must monitor that position. This is a time when you decide to continue with the kill or abort.
The phase of monitoring differs based on the traderâs time-frame. Day-traders may flip between stalking, action, monitoring, taking profits, scratching trades several times a day simultaneously. The constant need to shift mental states between tasks is one reason that so many people lose money day-trading.
Position trading has a more relaxed monitoring phase, nevertheless complacency can destroy even the longest term trader.
Monitoring consists of two sub-tasks: detailed monitoring and overview monitoring. If you correctly stalked your position then the market should move in your favour soon after you open it. If it does not then you probably do not belong in that position.
Rate your trade every X period (depending on your timeframe) throughout the life of the trade based on a scale:
1 2 3 4 5
Easy Neutral Hard
If after 3 self-polls the trade doesnât feel easy then it probably is a bad trade for you to be holding. On the other hand if it easy to hold then you can probably change to âoverview monitoringâ and let it ride.
You can switch back to detailed monitoring when there is a material change in conditions and some action may be soon required or at a set periodicity.
Overview monitoring - the trader broadens his focus and steps back from the market. He is looking at the forest instead of the trees. This enables more detached and objective observation.
The worst mistake that one can make during monitoring phase is to rationalize and distort data according to expectations. The purpose of monitoring the market is to pay attention to market signals without imposing expectations on them and instead comparing them against his knowledge of what the various market events mean.
The monitoring is a form of risk control. When the trade is good it should be easy to hold. When the market moves against your position you can choose to tighten the stop to reduce the risk. If nothing happens then you can either sit it or reduce your exposure.
7. Abort
The two actions following the action and monitoring are either: Abort or Take Profits.
Most traders have on or more of the following three beliefs about aborting a position:
1. The market is going against you. This is the most critical time to get out. Minimizing your loss. Some traders open a position with a stop order and wait for it to unfold, other traders open a position and if it doesnât immediately go in their favour they abort. Analyse your trades, if the best ones go in your favour immediate then consider aborting trades before they hit your stop.
2. When the original reason for the trade no longer exist or when you are uncertain.
What percentage of your trades make money? 40%
When youâre uncertain, what percentage of those trades make money? Very small.
If youâre uncertain then just get out.
Rather than control your uncertainty use it as a signal about what you should do.
3. When time is against you. You have an advantage that you donât have to be in the market all the time. Use this advantage.
If you have a hard time aborting a position the look at the proâs and conâs and compare the two scenarios.
8. Taking Profits
You need to plan your take profit exit before you put on the trade. If youâve calculated your risk properly then you should know two elements ahead of time: 1. Your chances of being right, 2. The size of your potential profit versus your potential loss.
You need to concentrate on maintaining consistency.
4 beliefs leading to profit taking:
1. Original conditions that led to taking the trade no longer exist.
2. The market reached your objective, Waiting for it patiently. VT recommends moving your stop closer to the market prices as the target is reached and waiting for the market to take you out. If the market is moving rapidly in your direction then thereâs no need to take profits.
3. When market volatility changes dramatically thus altering the risk parameters of the trade. Volatility typically increases when a market becomes popular and mass hysteria exists. This poses both potential for increased profits but also the risk is much greater.
Bear market moves are often climatic and may go past your target area, however if you wait for the climatic portion of the move to end you might get whipsawed in the opposite direction.
4. When such a climatic move occurs you should take profits immediately.
9. Daily debrief
Most good traders do it formally or informally. The purpose is to determine whether you have made a mistake during the day. A trading mistake as in not following oneâs trading rules and plan of action.
Pay attention to mistakes even if money was made on those trades.
What to do if you identified a mistake:
1. Avoid self-recrimination - telling yourself you could have or should have. Instead resolve not to repeat that mistake
2. Replay the trade in your mind. Prior to making that mistake, you reached a choice point. At that choice point you had a number of options.
3. Mentally review the options you have at that choice point.
4. For each possible option determine what the outcome would have been if you had made that choice. Give yourself plenty of choices that may cover future occurrences and not just âfighting yesterdayâs warâ.
5. Once you found 2 or three choices with favourite outcomes, mentally rehearse carrying them out in the future when you encounter similar situations. This will make it easier to select these options when you encounter similar situations in the future.
When you do follow your rules pat yourself on the back at the end of the debrief.
Summarize your debrief in writing in your journal. Write down your mistakes and new choices for future occurrences of this situation.
The debrief should take just 5 or 10 minutes and should be done every day. Once done put the trading day behind you, tomorrow is another day and the market will always be there.
10. Periodic review
This task is about making sure you rules are still appropriate, you are learning from your mistakes. This review may be a precursor for changing rules which shouldnât happen too often outside of a thorough review.
This is a time to be away from the markets. You canât review yourself and the markets while your still involved with daily trading.
The frequency of your review depends on your time frame. A day trader should perform the review every 3 to 4 weeks.
Go through your written debriefs, business plan and diary. Determine your strengths and weaknesses. This should take a whole day.
Leading well balanced lives.
An important aspect of being successful in the markets is taking care of other parts of your life outside of trading.
For example if your life is missing excitement then you may find yourself fulfilling this need in the markets. You cannot escape personal issues by trading in the market.
Traders with serious personal problems cannot trade successfully because they will bring those personal problems to the market.
Many traders will take a lot of money at some time in their trading lives and then give it back. Why? Because they donât keep the overall ecology of the system in mind. They use the markets to prove something to themselves that has nothing to do with trading. What happens to them? They ignore their overall purpose. They increase their trading dramatically or, if they are big enough, they try to corner the market and fail miserably.
Being out of the market means doing something totally different, vacation, exercise, taking breaks etc. When you do those things donât take the market with you. Donât be a puppet on a string controlled by the market.