Questions How to Get Started Trading with Probabilities

Quote from NoDoji:

As an intraday scalper who uses a 5min/1min chart combo, a reasonable sample size for me is the number of trades presented over a three to four week period.
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What's your typical sample size, NoDoji?
 
Quote from dom993:

No matter what, trading relies on identifying patterns which repeats with enough consistency to allow one to make money trading these.

Realizing that it starts by the systematic analysis of past price action is a leap forward.

Don't get stopped by the nay-sayers, you won't know if that can work for you unless you try it.

I'll give you a big tip - everything works some of the time. Find where & when it works (positive edge), and more importantly where and when it really doesn't (negative edge, but flip it for another positive edge). The rest averages to zero, and must be avoided as it will only cost you comms + slippage in the long run.

Of course, you can ask on any forum until your face turns blue, no-one will give you any answer of direct value. So start writing your own code, and just to get started, use any indicator of your liking to create 2 opposite events (for example, a stochastics indicator, 1 event can be slow-sto crossing the 80% line downwards, the 2nd event being the symmetric - slow sto crossing the 20% line upwards)(another example would be, the breakout of the 1st Xmin range after the open - there, the 2nd event could be the session close). Task your software to save a bunch of datapoints each time one of these events fire (maximum positive & negative price excursion since last event being the very basic thing to look at, don't forget the date & time, and whatever else you get interest into). Once this is reliably saved in a file, in a format you can import in Excel, start analyzing that data. Use the pivot-table feature as much as possible. Find how you can bucket events as "positive" edge, "negative" edge, don't know.

It is possible that using simple indicators doesn't give you much, but I can guarantee you that by refining the events just a little, you'll get to see things most don't. And as you refine the events even more, making them more "meaningful" in market terms (who cares about a stoch crossover, really), it will be Christmas all year long.
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I agree.

Further I feel that once the dependent variable begins to makes snese (Price formations of two or three bars.), then you can begin to develop the independent variable and a leading indicator of the dependent variable.

Look at braincell's quoted elements. He is into stats and only gets a few overlapping quoted elements.

He is working out things to get all the elements.

My attached chart is a little crude because the platform is not current with the market operating system logic.

It turns out, as braincell suggests, that there are a finite number of elements. Collecting them happens as suggested in the quote above from Dom993.

Christmas can be calculated if a person wishes. I posted the trades up to the exit at the top of the FOMC lateral. ( I mistook the ES journal as a trader's forum). After the lat retro consider it as a restart on the LAT REV's. A point is 2500 bucks in my case.
 

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Quote from jack hershey:

I agree.

Further I feel that once the dependent variable begins to makes snese (Price formations of two or three bars.), then you can begin to develop the independent variable and a leading indicator of the dependent variable.

Look at braincell's quoted elements. He is into stats and only gets a few overlapping quoted elements.

He is working out things to get all the elements.

My attached chart is a little crude because the platform is not current with the market operating system logic.

It turns out, as braincell suggests, that there are a finite number of elements. Collecting them happens as suggested in the quote above from Dom993.

Christmas can be calculated if a person wishes. I posted the trades up to the exit at the top of the FOMC lateral. ( I mistook the ES journal as a trader's forum). After the lat retro consider it as a restart on the LAT REV's. A point is 2500 bucks in my case.
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I tried to post page 4 of my log three different ways (gif, jpg and word) but it is not acceptable to ET. My equipment is newer than 2003.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

I tried to post page 4 of my log three different ways (gif, jpg and word) but it is not acceptable to ET. My equipment is newer than 2003.
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The size of your files is probably too big. Create for example a Dropbox account. Put your files there and then put the links in your ET posts.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

...
My attached chart is a little crude because the platform is not current with the market operating system logic....
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Hi Jack,

first some humor... It looks like you drew two channels at the beginning. But it also looks like you quickly gave up. :D

The second channel seems to be invalid. It was drawn without following your own guidelines for drawing channels. ;-)
 
Example: (Assumes Gaussian return distribution with no skew or kurtosis)

Calculate the future price X that is "x" standard deviations from the current price S.

X = exp(sigma*t*x)*S

t = sqrt(365/365) = 1
sigma = 11.61%
S = 444.27
x = 1

therefore:

X = exp(0.1161*1*1)*444.27 = 498.95

btw, 1 standard deviation gives an 84% probability of the price being below the future price in one year. If you want a 90% probability, use 1.27 standard deviations. Use the formula =normsdist(1.27) in Excel to get the percent.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

A person considering taking the offer of the market does not overstep his bounds.

I trade with 100% probability because I use the mathematics the markets dictate.

I am not ridiculing you.

I enter the first bar of the open as a consequence of the sentiment of the prior day's calculations using the mathematical requirements dictated by the market.

As the day progresses I continue to take profit segments, segment by segment.

Markets have no noise, no anomalies and no flaws.
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Ahh I see, how much return or actual profit from this method exactly ?

Is it scalable, have you raised a few million to start ?
 
Quote from optionbull:

Ahh I see, how much return or actual profit from this method exactly ?

Is it scalable, have you raised a few million to start ?
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My best day was 17 points on 100K shares You are new so google the commentary. I was trading 11 accounts, all on limited POA's. (including 3 or 4 handicapped adult offspring; I trade POA's as a courtesy)

No, not scaleable, so I use three approaches from one paradigm. You can google the definitions of the annual for each of the three.

I can't answer about "retrurn" or "actual profit" what is the context of these in your lingo? They sound like formulae used over time periods.

dom993 uses the term "Christmas". This started for me in 1957.

My definition of "full time trader" is a person who has to trade every day to make his lifestyle needs. I reached "freedom" in 1957. This means not having a workplace.
 
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