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Questions for experienced ES daytraders?
- Thread starter wtfauoa
- Start date
For some people it is, but for most it is not. Let's say you do 10 trades per day in the ES, and you have decided to set your stop at 4 ticks (which is very small) and your take profit at 8 ticks (which is twice your stop).
5 losers @ 4 ticks = 20 x 12.50 = $250
5 winners @ 8 ticks = 40 x 12.50 = $500
Commissions = 10 x 2 = 20 x 2.03 = $40.60
Profit = $500 - $250 = $250 - $40.60 = $209.40
ROI = 2.09%
Commissions as % of winnings = 16.24%
OR,
Let's say you do 2 trades per day in the ES, and you have decided to set your stop at 20 ticks (which is realistic) and your take profit at 40 ticks (which is twice your stop).
1 loser @ 20 ticks = 20 x 12.50 = $250
1 winner @ 40 ticks = 40 x 12.50 = $500
Commissions = 2 x 2 = 4 x 2.03 = $8.12
Profit = $500 - $250 = $250 - $8.12 = $241.88
ROI = 2.41%
Commissions as % of winnings = 3.24%
So,
What stands out here, what is important and why?
Clearly the broker is getting richer with more trading. But what matters most is how much you make in total, after all costs. With smaller targets, you might get many more trades for the day, but have to work harder. With larger targets, perhaps you can sit back more. At the same time, if smaller targets allows you to put on more size, since your stops are tighter, then this might lead to more overall profits, rather than having the balls to trade more size when you know your stop is 5 points.
Of course the other things that matter is the expectancy. The way you show this is with 50% wins for both scenarios, but I'm sure long term stats would be much different.
So there are just far too many variables, both mathematical, but also psychological, which will make a difference as to which is better.
Which would you rather do every day. Do 10 trades and get 5 wrong, or do 2 trades and get one right?Clearly the broker is getting richer with more trading. But what matters most is how much you make in total, after all costs. With smaller targets, you might get many more trades for the day, but have to work harder. With larger targets, perhaps you can sit back more. At the same time, if smaller targets allows you to put on more size, since your stops are tighter, then this might lead to more overall profits, rather than having the balls to trade more size when you know your stop is 5 points.
Of course the other things that matter is the expectancy. The way you show this is with 50% wins for both scenarios, but I'm sure long term stats would be much different.
So there are just far too many variables, both mathematical, but also psychological, which will make a difference as to which is better.
You make it sound like everything else is equal. You sure you can get 10 points on your winner? Some days, the entire range is 10 points, so your target of 10 points is impossible on many days. The 2 or 3 point targets would be more plentiful.Which would you rather do every day. Do 10 trades and get 5 wrong, or do 2 trades and get one right?
This is one of the biggest problems that most traders face. Who said the ES is going to give you 10 (or 2) points if you get the direction correct, and who said the ES is going to take away 5 (or 1) points from you if you get the direction wrong. It is you who decides how much you will win or lose, nobody else. Sticking to specific targets can be disastrous when daytrading, and usually is for most who try it. It is a complicated equation, with the most difficult part being working out in your head what exactly it is you must do, and then doing it. Very few can actually do it, even after years of trying.You make it sound like everything else is equal. You sure you can get 10 points on your winner? Some days, the entire range is 10 points, so your target of 10 points is impossible on many days. The 2 or 3 point targets would be more plentiful.
For the past few days, all your posts have been about what can't be done, how nobody know anything, how everyone loses, etc. I'm not exactly sure what you're after anymore. Are you looking for help? Are you looking to teach? On the one hand it sounds like you're saying you know everything, and nobody knows anything, but I haven't seen any tangible information you're sharing.This is one of the biggest problems that most traders face. Who said the ES is going to give you 10 (or 2) points if you get the direction correct, and who said the ES is going to take away 5 (or 1) points from you if you get the direction wrong. It is you who decides how much you will win or lose, nobody else. Sticking to specific targets can be disastrous when daytrading, and usually is for most who try it. It is a complicated equation, with the most difficult part being working out in your head what exactly it is you must do, and then doing it. Very few can actually do it, even after years of trying.
When you were starting out wanting to talk to traders who trade the ES and discuss things, I was totally on board. When you wanted to see trades on a chart, I thought that was wonderful as well. But now, I'm really confused about where you're going with all of this and frankly not all that interested anymore. Without discussion about trades, all of this talk is kind of pointless in my opinion.
Exactly. In case you have forgotten I was the only person who posted details of my ES trades with charts marked up. Why do all the others talk and show nothing. Makes you wonder, does it not. Most of what you will read on here is just pure and utter rubbish.For the past few days, all your posts have been about what can't be done, how nobody know anything, how everyone loses, etc. I'm not exactly sure what you're after anymore. Are you looking for help? Are you looking to teach? On the one hand it sounds like you're saying you know everything, and nobody knows anything, but I haven't seen any tangible information you're sharing.
When you were starting out wanting to talk to traders who trade the ES and discuss things, I was totally on board. When you wanted to see trades on a chart, I thought that was wonderful as well. But now, I'm really confused about where you're going with all of this and frankly not all that interested anymore. Without discussion about trades, all of this talk is kind of pointless in my opinion.
Maybe I should expand a bit more. I am not looking for help from anyone, as I do not need any help. If I did need help what makes you think that anyone here, or anywhere else for that matter, can help me make money. Why do you think the wheel keeps going round and round, with the same old rubbish being regurgitated by different talking heads. It is a joke, and every day there are another bunch of little spring lambs starting to jump up and down all over the meadow. Guess who is sitting back and rubbing their hands. If any person wants to make money trading, then they must take it very serious and not be sucked in to the ridiculous world of experts, gurus, and what ever other names you want to give them. It will make not one little bit of difference what any person tells you, as, the reality of how the financial markets really operate is there for all to see, but to see one must open ones eyes first and not be blinded by ignorance and stupidity. If you go to hammer in a nail and hit your thumb real hard, you might do it the second time, but the chances of you doing it the third time are very slim. If you keep hammering and keep hitting your thumb, well, need I say anymore. BTW, I don't really care what any other person on the internet does or say, why should I, as it will not do me any good, that is one sure thing. It really is amazing how the age of information technology has allowed so many people to become so stupid, but then again, it has always being that way, we are just in a different chapter at the moment.
I find it curious that you even mention Handle123, since his last post to this thread was on Oct 11th, as far as I can tell.
Why do you keep bringing him up?
I been in hospital few times this past month, so not posting much. And as far as several on the site, I have them on ignore, so even if they mention me, they had to have made a 2nd, 3rd, 4th accounts. I don't need more bullshit in my life by those I look at waste of time in my life. I don't understand why people never learned respect. There are those who write 30 plus posts a day and most of it is lacks positive information. Posts are supposed to offer perhaps a new idea or rehash the classics, but way too much of the 3 stooges.
I am in process of trading a new Scalping method for ES I made while in bed with tubes and wires hooked into me, risk is soft 3 ticks or hard 4 ticks and target is 1-2.75 ticks, trade 45 minutes then nap time-lol. Can anyone design such a system with limited experience, I doubt it. I know this market better than any, I know the ebb and flows of Indexes. For those who say making 4 ticks in ES is easy, that depends on where the trade is coming in and picking right direction. Those who say price action is better than volume is plain wrong, if you doing one's, no problem, if you trading 100's, all the price action in the world is not going to get out cause lack of volume. Bring up almost any one minute chart and anyone can see bars generally have at least two-three ticks in them, select right direction, you get it. Is it impossible to trade retail this way, it be pretty hard to get consistent daily profits cause you making $25 less comm, few trades make one tick and very few losses lose 3-4 ticks. And just cause I scalp, does not mean I can't read charting, I am very good at reading charts and can read the Dome, you spend decades looking at price, amazing something stuck, LOL. I laugh when I hear newbies want to scalp, cause when it is all done for the week, after paying fees, leasing fees, T-1 fees etc, you are making 1-2 ticks on average per trade. Takes incredible knowledge of self, instant memory of where chart showing end of moves based on stats, mistakes hurt. One loss can not be made up by 2 profitable trades, usually 3-4.
And you be surprised that leasing a seat if you are trading some size, you can save bucks each month. http://www.apexfutures.com/our-low-rates/futures-commissions/cme-membership/
CME is making a ton of cash for the fees they charge for like the ES as the ES is 10% of the value it use to be in 80s/90s, so back in the day, use to trade 5/10 contracts for $15 per lot retail, so commission to one point $500 was 3%, and now commissions of $4 to one point $50 is 8%, and CME curtailed most pits, so wondering if they lease less space? And less employees.
People who trade for themselves do not trade like each other, LOL, but most are focused and never think it is exciting, it is a grind. I applaud those who learned to make more points per trade. But now I simple don't have desire as I did younger to even design methods that trade all day. I prefer longer term trading as risk is much less than day trading, I know most will say opposite, we all have different ways to trade. I rather do 20-40 trades in a hour and walk away.
Like to thank those who still post charts, I will study them for hours and often they will trigger further ideas. Most of anything else does not show anything whether calling trades or tallies. I don't know what is in the mind of guy calling trades as I can't test it, show me something I can test that I might not seen before, anything else is fluff to me, useless.
Hanle123,
Shouldn't you priority be your health? should you not be roaming the world for those people - who know a bit about good health? I mean there are priorities. just an opinion.
Shouldn't you priority be your health? should you not be roaming the world for those people - who know a bit about good health? I mean there are priorities. just an opinion.