Are you also able to comment on what your average win might be in terms of ticks and also win rate? Thanks.
Questions for experienced ES daytraders?
- Thread starter wtfauoa
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Personally, I wouldn't mess with a 1 minute chart except for maybe entry on a larger tf setup. Look to the 3 minute and examine the length of various legs ( moves). I use tick charts but there is nothing magical about them, I simply like the charts to adapt to current action...again, a personal choice. Find a sweet spot or if you prefer, use a trailing stop. I prefer targets as it keeps things simple but you have to find what works for you. As far as HFT or programs, I don't bother with things over which I have no control over.I don't use oscillators to determine where price is going but to alert me when momentum is failing or rising.@speedo How do I work out the mean moves? Today I just used the 1 minute chart to place my 2 trades as per attachment. How do I know when the mean moves will work and will not work? How can oscillators help to determine what price will do next? How do I know if an Arb or HFT programme has just kicked in?
Sure, I average slightly less than ten ticks on gains and slightly more than 6 ticks on losses.
So let me see if I understand what you're saying properly.
You have an initial entry, and if this goes against you, you are able to re-enter 4 more times, at prices that would be worse than your original entry?
If this is in fact correct, are you able to say how often you would hit your target on your first entry? How often you have to add once and then hit profit? How often you have to add twice before hitting profit.. etc?
Along with this, I'm trying to figure out what you mean by a low losing percentage. If the original entry doesn't hit your profit and makes you add to your position at a worse price, some would instead take a loss and call this a losing trade (I see though that you call this add not a losing trade if the original trade idea is still in play). But still, the idea that you're adding to a trade that isn't in profit might be seen as a losing trade. So a low loss percentage might mean something different for you than others.
Thanks! It sure helps put things into perspective when people talk about winning and losing trades and being profitable, etc. Are you able to comment on the win rate? Clearly, with a win of 10 and loss of 6, even 50% win rate is profitable.
Win rate averages around 57%, 7% scratch, rest are losses. Not the best trade plan in the world but it works for me.
Thanks for the details. Seems to work very nicely based on the math.
Some weeks and months are great, some not so much but if you develop a trade plan with positive expectancy, you just have to take the signals. I made very little money the last three weeks of July and the first three of August but January and June were boffo....just have to be patient and not get down when things are slow.Thanks for the details. Seems to work very nicely based on the math.
Absolutely. Its also interesting that with 57% wins and 7% scratches, you say you still have to go through maybe 3 to 4 losses in a row. This is certainly within statistical expectation, but its always good to highlight this. A trader has to be prepared for 4 losses in a row and have that not phase him one bit.
How many trade signals would you generate in a day? With these small targets, you're probably not waiting around all day, and can more than likely find trade signals in many different market conditions/environments?
Averages about 6 signals per day over the past year. Things have slowed down the past year or two but I believe it's just a tired bull market with no good cash alternatives and not a sea change, at least I hope not. In any event, it's still OK, just not the gold mine of great range and volatility.