Question to all the Price Action Expert

[Redneck]

He doesn't outright say this, but he implies that a huge down move, which is quite rare, is not something that a consistently profitable trader would sweat over. A system that works day in and day out is a much better system than one where you can get a 50 or 100 point drop in the NQ as an example. I tend to agree. Its much better to make a nice 10 points a day most days of the trading year rather than hoping for a few 100 point days.

Always better to get a % of something..., than a whole lot of nothing

Makes for a consistent..., and long term trading career


RN

 

[k p]

KP

Never do / would - I drop below the 1M - for the micro view / or to decipher behavior

It would only drive me nuts - I've tried it a few times - and I just cannot sustain focusing on/ assimilating / deciphering - the amount of information hitting my eyeballs

I can't do it

RN

I am still going forward with the idea that it can be done because I see so much that to me makes sense.

But here is the thing. If you say you trade behavior, this means you are watching price move.. correct? If you have a level in mind, this means you see if the move down to this level is quick, and you see how this rejects. If all you ever did was look at a 1 min bar, you would see a big bar their either rejects, or perhaps a big bar that breaks through. My point is that by seeing how the bar forms, this to me means you're dropping below the 1 minute, even if you might not be looking at how it prints via 5 sec bars, your eyes have seen the movement. Heck, even stuff is lost within that 5 sec bar. Seeing those thrusts that happen in 2 seconds seems important, and especially if that thrust down is immediately bought back up or not.

But if you don't agree with any of this, then perhaps you could better explain how you're trading behavior? I know you have said that you want to see price move in real time, so you couldn't just come back to your computer every minute to look at the 1 min bar and have all you need.

 

[Redneck]

Context is huge in this game, and tied in with context is screen time.

Absolutely

And / but - past context is not a forecaster - but rather a measuring stick

And / but - current context (what price is doing right here / right now) - often times is a forecaster - of what price is about to do

There is a distinct difference in the usage of these two

RN

 

[Redneck]

My point is that by seeing how the bar forms, this to me means you're dropping below the 1 minute, even if you might not be looking at how it prints via 5 sec bars,

I trade off the 5 min - this never deviates

I use the 1 min for a micro view of how the 5.., and even the 15 min bars - are formed

But if you don't agree with any of this, then perhaps you could better explain how you're trading behavior?

If I use the terms - thrusts / rejections / volume coming in / failed attempts / head fakes / no follow through / one sided control / pressure / traps (and there are several more)

Do these have any behavioral meaning to you

Would seeing these - impart any meaning as to what was going on between buyers / sellers - or what the intent behind these were

Could you pick up on - where the elephant foot prints reside (and which side of the tape they're currently on)

Could you pick up on who is.., and who is not - currently actively trading (BSDs vs MM vs just the HFT running rampant)


If not - then it near impossible for me to provide a sense of what behavior is..., what to look for/ key off of


Rather its going to take sitting in front of a live chart till it comes into focus - and makes sense

And it going to take clear eyes and a clear head - to get past the - price movement is random crap/ stuff we impart through thought / wants / needs crap


Price movement is a very well orchestrated /choreographed event - happening day in and day out - over days / weeks / months / quarters / years / even decades - shtf notwithstanding

RN

 

[k p]

Do these have any behavioral meaning to you

Would seeing these - impart any meaning as to what was going on between buyers / sellers - or what the intent behind these were

Often times, yes actually. The trick is to not get sucked into it once price has taken off. For example, it watching a level at 4400 (the NQ), I see price shoot up, and I didn't get in, then looking for more of this behavior at 4405 or 4410 is just the algos messing around.

So often I see on the 5 sec chart how longs get shaken out (depending of course on where their stops are). The best stop placement is one beyond a critical low, the so called danger point, and the only way to get into a move with a tight stop is to get in on a lower time frame chart. Waiting for the 1 min chart to tell me is too late, the stop is too wide. I could of course always just buy levels of support that I think will hold, that I expect to hold, or simply that hold 30% of the time and use a R:R that has a positive edge. But buying blind a support level I'm not super happy with... so I need a better filter. This price action is that filter for me.

Perhaps FB trades a bit different than futures? I've never seen price move in real time with FB. But its very much a work in progress still, so I'm not sure how far I can get with this just yet.

 

[bmwhendrix]

As some others have stated, a real chart that real traders trade off of looks different. For example, while I trade multiple futures, I don't use a 1 min chart because it's noise. Also, I would not be in this trade, since I don't trade market open. Also, I want to be aware of reports that are coming out during the day. For example, if the CPI report is about to be released I don't want to have any open positions or orders ready to go. This is the difference between those of us who are active during market hours and someone like yourself. Finally, while I use some PA, I have special non lagging indicators which your chart does not show that give me a 2nd confirmation to be in a trade or not. When I see price respecting this indicator, then I can trade more contracts or go for more points. Finally, I trade in real time which occurs on the right side of the screen not based on hindsight charts.

Now the difference would be if someone showed us a real chart with a real trade he or she attempted to make and then asked us for our help on why we thought the trade should be made or if it would work or not. But this means you would need to attempt to do a trade. This means you would need to study say a PA book if you are into PA trades. This means you would need to have a trading plan. Last of but not least PA and TA don't work 100% of the time. My highest win ratio on a system that I created which others paid me real money to use was 65% on equal risk vs reward.

 

[Redneck]

Price movement is a very well orchestrated /choreographed event - happening day in and day out - over days / weeks / months / quarters / years / even decades - shtf notwithstanding

Btw - This is not fact because "they" own the mkt - mkt is way too big

But "they" do own/ manage / control - the process


RN

 

[Redneck]

Perhaps FB trades a bit different than futures?

No clue because I don't trade futures (I do invest in them)

PA.., is PA..., is PA..., is PA - it the universal language of the mkt

Just as math is the universal language of humans (and possibly even extraterrestrials)


RN

 

[Eddiemorra]

Long or short? Where's the next best trade? Where are the elephants positioned? How do we work it out?
Any limit order ideas for your own trades?
(5min European furtures chart)

 

[Autodidact]

Don"t want any hindsight story telling chart from the PA expert, you can find ton of this in this forum or in any TA books in Amazon (such Al-brooks).

The purpose of this thread is to see how those PA expect react to any price action without knowing the next bar will go(up or down) . The respond so far is very interesting, so far only RN take a shot, while all other supposed to be PA experts have pushed back with all the excuses - need instrument name and date (so that they can make up the hindsight story?), need 1min time frame, need more indicators and bla bla.

I had been in a trading room with one supposed to be the legend in PA world, he is able to decipher any PA chart in hindsight with all the fantastic explanation, but in real time trading, I could only say I am really disappointed with all his calls in "real time".

Im a scalper, a daytrader, a swing trader, a position trader and finally investor, I rarely look below the daily chart.