Question to all the Price Action Expert

[galvinlee888]

Now the difference would be if someone showed us a real chart with a real trade he or she attempted to make and then asked us for our help on why we thought the trade should be made or if it would work or not. But this means you would need to attempt to do a trade. This means you would need to study say a PA book if you are into PA trades. This means you would need to have a trading plan. Last of but not least PA and TA don't work 100% of the time. My highest win ratio on a system that I created which others paid me real money to use was 65% on equal risk vs reward.

Don"t want any hindsight story telling chart from the PA expert, you can find ton of this in this forum or in any TA books in Amazon (such Al-brooks).

The purpose of this thread is to see how those PA expect react to any price action without knowing the next bar will go(up or down) . The respond so far is very interesting, so far only RN take a shot, while all other supposed to be PA experts have pushed back with all the excuses - need instrument name and date (so that they can make up the hindsight story?), need 1min time frame, need more indicators and bla bla.

I had been in a trading room with one supposed to be the legend in PA world, he is able to decipher any PA chart in hindsight with all the fantastic explanation, but in real time trading, I could only say I am really disappointed with all his calls in "real time".

 

[galvinlee888]

Also, I would not be in this trade, since I don't trade market open. Also, I want to be aware of reports that are coming out during the day. For example, if the CPI report is about to be released I don't want to have any open positions or orders ready to go. This is the difference between those of us who are active during market hours and someone like yourself. Finally, while I use some PA, I have special non lagging indicators which your chart does not show that give me a 2nd confirmation to be in a trade or not. When I see price respecting this indicator, then I can trade more contracts or go for more points. Finally, I trade in real time which occurs on the right side of the screen not based on hindsight charts..

There were NO major economy news at that morning and news should not impact any price movements.
What time you normally trade? I can always provide a chart at that particular time with the parameters / conditions / indicators that you are looking for at that time, and see how you will guess the next bar movement after you have all the information that you are seeking (economy event, genetal market mode and etc)

 

[learner2007]

The purpose of this thread is to see how those PA expect react to any price action without knowing the next bar

What you are doing is trying to force an answer from those who use PA/TA based on a situation that you have selected, rather than one that the trader would actually select based on his analysis and plan. The purpose of TA, and its success, is to identify situations which will work out in the vast majority of cases, and not to analyse any given situation. What will happen next based on the price movement of 1 bar is not TA. The setups that PA/TA people trade on are based on movements within trends, and 1 bar does not make a trend. So you are not asking a realistic question that a TA trader could answer based on TA. When a TA trader picks a stock to trade he does so only when he recognizes a setup (being his edge) that he knows is most likely to work out. When I was a technical analyst at a major international broker I had to add a TA comment to any stock report that the security analyst wrote. Those were forced opinions, such as you're asking for. But for the last 40 years as an individual TA trader, I would never,ever analyze a stock/contract based on anything other than what can be read. And, in TA, 1 bar can't really be read, can it? So you are really misunderstanding how PA/TA is to be properly used.Guessing what the next bar will be is just guessing, and not the analysis of supply and demand.

And I think this is the very same reason that many say PA/TA doesn't work. They try to apply TA to any stock/contract that pops up in the news etc., and then see on the chart what's not really there or bend the trend lines to fit the news, rather than picking a stock based solely on the TA indication that they see on the chart. TA will work the majority of the time in given situations, but not in any given situation.

 

[wwatson1]

What you are doing is trying to force an answer from those who use PA/TA based on a situation that you have selected, rather than one that the trader would actually select based on his analysis and plan. The purpose of TA, and its success, is to identify situations which will work out in the vast majority of cases, and not to analyse any given situation. What will happen next based on the price movement of 1 bar is not TA. The setups that PA/TA people trade on are based on movements within trends, and 1 bar does not make a trend. So you are not asking a realistic question that a TA trader could answer based on TA. When a TA trader picks a stock to trade he does so only when he recognizes a setup (being his edge) that he knows is most likely to work out. When I was a technical analyst at a major international broker I had to add a TA comment to any stock report that the security analyst wrote. Those were forced opinions, such as you're asking for. But for the last 40 years as an individual TA trader, I would never,ever analyze a stock/contract based on anything other than what can be read. And, in TA, 1 bar can't really be read, can it? So you are really misunderstanding how PA/TA is to be properly used.Guessing what the next bar will be is just guessing, and not the analysis of supply and demand.

And I think this is the very same reason that many say PA/TA doesn't work. They try to apply TA to any stock/contract that pops up in the news etc., and then see on the chart what's not really there or bend the trend lines to fit the news, rather than picking a stock based solely on the TA indication that they see on the chart. TA will work the majority of the time in given situations, but not in any given situation.

i agree with this man, i bet if you looked at the higher time frames and you chosen indicators you probably wouldnt touch it, i have a 50 and a 200 ema on all my charts to see where the trend is (if there even is one) on the weekly , daily and THEN look for patterns on the lower time frames, you must takr into account the bigger picture in my opinion

 

[wwatson1]

small timeframes are good for timing and entering into the larger trend but i wouldn't just get in and out on the patterns they create individualy

 

[loyek590]

No takers ?

if it was my strategy, I would have been long somewhere in the up move, and probabably would have added at the very top and got stopped out of most on the down move. Too bad about that last candle, now I am right back where I started with many casualties along the way.

 

[Autodidact]

Inverve head and shoulders failure, the short signal is trivial, what's not trivial is the exit.

 

[k p]

My highest win ratio on a system that I created which others paid me real money to use was 65% on equal risk vs reward.

This is a very interesting stat.. thanks for sharing. It makes me also recall the stat from an old member who had a journal here, geez, and a person who NoDoji learned from. His stat was a 50% win rate on a 1:2 risk to reward ratio. The stat you quote is not as lucrative, but I very much appreciate it since its a number I can believe.

I have special non lagging indicators which your chart does not show that give me a 2nd confirmation to be in a trade or not.

I wonder if you could go into any more detail here. I don't look at any indicators, but I wonder if could elaborate on what else you would look at since you seem to apply that is doesn't fall into the price action category.

 

[k p]

The purpose of this thread is to see how those PA expect react to any price action without knowing the next bar will go(up or down) . The respond so far is very interesting, so far only RN take a shot, while all other supposed to be PA experts have pushed back with all the excuses - need instrument name and date (so that they can make up the hindsight story?), need 1min time frame, need more indicators and bla bla.

I quite like this thread and hope it gets more interesting.

learner2007 provided a very good reply. Handle123 made a very interesting post just yesterday where he essentially backed up this very same thing. The trading method he shows is simply taking trades under his ideal conditions, and this therefore means most of the down move in the past couple of days was missed. He doesn't outright say this, but he implies that a huge down move, which is quite rare, is not something that a consistently profitable trader would sweat over. A system that works day in and day out is a much better system than one where you can get a 50 or 100 point drop in the NQ as an example. I tend to agree. Its much better to make a nice 10 points a day most days of the trading year rather than hoping for a few 100 point days.

This therefore means that trying to figure out what anyone would do based on that huge drop you show would be of no consequence to a trader who is using a much smaller time frame and shooting for a few consistent points. The point here is that this matches up very well with what learner2007 is saying. Most traders might not have a plan for such a huge drop. In fact, I even think that Handle has a rule where if the 1 min bar is too big, he stays out. So the trick isn't to really make sense of every chart.

My own two cents is this. I often see PA trades each talk about things a little differently and yet, there are similarities that stand out. Some say they don't look at anything less than a 1 min bar, or even a 5 min bar, but then it also comes out that they watch price move in real time, they want to see how the bar forms. This implies that they are actually looking at something smaller than a 1 min bar, but the way they say it, this doesn't come across.

Every successful trader says one needs a solid trading plan, but at the same time, as I read between the lines, what I see more and more of is context creeping in that tells the trader when to skip so called valid signals. Context is huge in this game, and tied in with context is screen time. This is also why wrbtrader says that he would need to see more charts and of different time frames. Each instrument has a feel and rhythm, and trading a chart without being in tune with this rhythm just isn't enough to be really successful at this.

 

[Redneck]

My own two cents is this. I often see PA trades each talk about things a little differently and yet, there are similarities that stand out. Some say they don't look at anything less than a 1 min bar, or even a 5 min bar, but then it also comes out that they watch price move in real time, they want to see how the bar forms. This implies that they are actually looking at something smaller than a 1 min bar, but the way they say it, this doesn't come across.

KP

Never do / would - I drop below the 1M - for the micro view / or to decipher behavior

It drives me nuts - I've tried it a few times - and I just cannot sustain focusing on/ assimilating / deciphering - the amount of information hitting my eyeballs

I can't do it

RN