If I am hedging on a failed breakout, like say a wedge breakout closing in on its apex, where if the breakout fails it will in all probability fall back to the bottom, do I hedge with Puts on its potential price at the bottom, or do I hedge with current in the money Puts?
If I hedge with potential bottom Puts that are far out of the money then it will cost far less to hedge for a 10-20% failed breakout allowing me to use that cost to purchase more initial long shares for the breakout, but will render them worthless if it does breakout. If I buy in the money puts it will cost far more disallowing a greater purchase of long shares, but will allow me to sell them back at a decent average if it breaks out.
Not sure which would be the better strategy and would appreciate any feedback ty.
The point of hedging is to be delta-neutral i.e. no matter where the price goes, you won't be affected much so there is no point hedging with the strike that's equal to the bottom price. The most effective hedging would be with the ATM put but it's expensive so what I would do is hedge with a strike that's equal to a meaningful support level that breaking that the put will provide effective hedging against the drop but if that support level holds, it won't cost too much for the put. IMO