[QUESTION] - Can You Have An Edge With Simple Candlestick Patterns?

volpri said:
Example, in a strong bullish move I have seen wedge tops fail successively over and over again.
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these wedge tops result in break out pullback/ tests

and so when there is no strong trend these wedge tops work well and do not fail
 
HomelyWizzard said:
When I've looked into strategies using Thinkscripts most of not all use Heikin-Ashi style candlesticks.
https://www.investopedia.com/trading/heikin-ashi-better-candlestick/
here is a strategy using this for trading what is called a super trend.
View attachment 231853
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Thank you, sir.

Heikin-Ashi candles do make my charts look cleaner, however, I am not sure because of hindsight bias I am cherry-picking the data.

Also, can you elaborate a little more on the screenshot you provided? Is this a system you created?
 
Tall Mike said:
Thank you, sir.

Heikin-Ashi candles do make my charts look cleaner, however, I am not sure because of hindsight bias I am cherry-picking the data.

Also, can you elaborate a little more on the screenshot you provided? Is this a system you created?
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No, it is a system (a combination of 3 actually) taken from https://usethinkscript.com/forums/indicators.3/

1) Auto_PSAR by Mobius
2) Mobius - SuperTrend
3) ORB - Opening Breakout Indicator
The code is available on the website.
 
Tall Mike said:
I just did a little bit of manual backtesting on the ES intraday 5 min charts testing a simple strategy I put together looking at engulfing patterns.

The strategy looks decent, and from what I can see so far looks to give some good trades on both sides of the market, however, I feel like a simple candlestick pattern like this overlayed with another indicator is way too simple and cannot possibly provide an edge long term. Maybe I am getting in my own head because it's so simple but I feel like there is no way you could use something as simple as this to trade the ES.

Sorry if this is way stupid but I'd really appreciate some input from those of you who day trade.
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A little bit of manual backtesting without any statistical analysis is meaningless.

Thus, you either need to do a meaningful backtesting or simulate trade via a simulator that keeps quantitative statistical analysis of your trade performance via engulfing patterns although the simulator doesn't know your trade strategy...

You then move into real money trading with the minimum size via money you can afford to lose (most likely will lose) because backtesting and simulator do not involve issues that impact your trade performance in comparison to real money.

You can then answer all your questions but don't expect others to answer them for you until you have your own data / statistics for comparison to what others are telling yo.

In fact, you aren't going to get any deep conversation about engulfing patterns until you can provide your own statistical results because the few that use these patterns tend to not share what they know with those not willing to do the work.

wrbtrader
 
Tall Mike said:
I just did a little bit of manual backtesting on the ES intraday 5 min charts testing a simple strategy I put together looking at engulfing patterns.

The strategy looks decent, and from what I can see so far looks to give some good trades on both sides of the market, however, I feel like a simple candlestick pattern like this overlayed with another indicator is way too simple and cannot possibly provide an edge long term. Maybe I am getting in my own head because it's so simple but I feel like there is no way you could use something as simple as this to trade the ES.

Sorry if this is way stupid but I'd really appreciate some input from those of you who day trade.
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Candlestick patterns like hammers and shooting stars work better in support/resistance zones, try to use them at these levels only.

Add a few simple moving averages for confirmation and these simple candlestick formations can really deliver powerful trading signals... :cool:
 
Tradex said:
Candlestick patterns like hammers and shooting stars work better in support/resistance zones, try to use them at these levels only.

Add a few simple moving averages for confirmation and these simple candlestick formations can really deliver powerful trading signals... :cool:
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too easy.
some want to look and look and look some more.
overtrading? overanalyzing? overlooking?
lol
people could become trading people by starting with a blood simple setup and working out from there.

there's a reason noosecar drivers start out in go-carts instead of formula-1 rigs.

imho if a newby can't test, write a plan and run a simple set-up, say hammers and or engulfings at s&r, then they just saved a lot of time and trouble. likely they can't run something more demanding.

you learn a ton running this simple stuff.

"Trading an Engulfing Candle at Support & Resistance provides greater conviction."
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...t-right-here-baby.335635/page-10#post-5014575

What would you say belongs in a solid trading plan?
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...solid-trading-plan.340340/page-4#post-5031706
 
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