Question about my system....

D

dafishman

I have developed a system and have been paper trading it and doing a little real money trading...95% of it has been paper...I have kept track of the records and all calls since 10-3-05 until 11/11/05...


The results are below in the attachment and I have not factored in commissions and slippage. There are 3 methods I use, 1 is most volatile, more calls, more riskier, more rewarding...#2 a little less, #3 even less...#3 is my choice simply because of the very little drawdown. I think with the big drawdowns I get on the method #1, I would get scared to follow it and not make every call and could lose even more...#3, suits me fine...I THINK! #2 is not bad!...ANyways tell me what you think and why.

By the way, the stock is BTU as you can see the file name....
 

Attachments

Your results look fantastic. However IMO the method you want to trade depends on your risk tolerance. In this business if u have an edge, the risk you take is proportional to your reward. The question is - do you have the balls to take the large drawdown? If you dont and want to trade using the large drawdown method, I would advise that you trade small and then increase in size as you gain confidence.
 
If I have to choose I would definitely choose #3.

Here is the total Profits and # of calls for each method.

Total ------Total
Profits-----Calls ------- Profit Per Trade
25.49----- 155------- 0.164451613--------- #1
17.99----- 103------- 0.174660194--------- #2
13--------- 44-------- 0.295454545--------- #3

Clearly #3 is better if you look at the net reward per trade. Once you add commissions and slippage #1 and #2 could very well be not profitable at all.
 
Thanks fellas....I dont think I have the balls to risk that big of a drawdown even though the results are still good...I have been very close to getting out of this business and I have even messaged some respected people on this board asking for help...

I have dedicated alot to this in a very short time...about 4 months...I have studied just about everything and spent in upwards of 80 hours or more a week on developing things, indicators, software packages, etc, etc...I surely hope that I can continue these same numbers and on Monday I will go into realtime, 100% money. I will take it small to start, 200-400 shares and see how things go and I will update this thread with the numbers accordingly...I will use the method #3, I dont get calls every day but when I do, there damn good...Thanks again and any other input is appreciated...BTW this system works on any stock and I can backtest your stock with my method, if your curious of a stock using my methods, post it and I will test it out for you...Thanks again
 
also, when I backtest some other stocks, it seems that more volatility performs better yet too much volatility as in GOOG or CME does not do well....I like to stick to stocks I always look at and watch and try and learn them...My "4" are, BTU, BR, SWN, and SUN...some others I like are TXU and VLO....on the other hand, stocks liks PD and TS perform very very well, but there a little expensive for me as I like to stay under 100....ebay does well also for me...
 
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