Quest for the Next Big Tradable Trend

Yeah, MArc Faber or someone in BArron's also said to play corn short term with a six month contract. I wonder, though, when folks here and Barron's are touting a seasonal play with new lows, well, if something sounds too good to be true ....
 
Quote from lynx2004:

I have also been watching VBI (VIX future) over the last few weeks and am wondering about the same questions...VIX keep dribbling lower while the premium also seem to erode each week as nothing big happens. Is there anyone here who has experience trading the VBI future? I am trying to find a way to get long implied vol -- this could be the biggest trade for 2005 if only one can time it!
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I'm not a trend follower, generally. But I suspect that if you have the patience, the capital, can take the drawdowns, and they have been painful the past couple months, then this is a trend to play long term. Lot of ifs, though. And your also hoping to catch the break out, that could be months away or who knows how much longer. Do trend followers generally do that? I also don't see a lot of contracts outstanding, so where is the smart money? Not here. I wish they had options on this contract. It make this period easier to swallow.
 
Quote from nravo:

Yeah, MArc Faber or someone in BArron's also said to play corn short term with a six month contract. I wonder, though, when folks here and Barron's are touting a seasonal play with new lows, well, if something sounds too good to be true ....
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Blah blah blah. Stick to equities ravo - & think twice before you accuse me of 'touting.'

Touting corn? Talk about cynicism running amok ... :confused:
 
havent read all this thread cos i cant be arsed.

anyway - i guess i wont be the first to bang on about euro/usd, but...


this week we have fomc AND nfp numbers. 2 fundamental reasons for a big move

technically vol is getting crushed with the indecision too - look at the tight ranges, dojis and bollinger band squeeze thats going down.


theres going to be one hell of a move soon i think. i dont know which way - cos i dont do that shit.

the eagles spring to mind....

There's gonna be a heartache tonight, a
heartache tonight I know.
Heartache baby,
Somebody's gonna hurt someone,(somebody)
Before the night is through
Somebody's gonna come undone,
There's nothin' we can do
(Everybody)Everybody wants to touch somebody
if it takes all night
Everybody wants to take a little chance
To make it come out right
There's gonna be a heartache tonight
A heartache tonight, I know
There's gonna be a heartache tonight,
A heartache tonight ,I know
Let's go!

so basically, like in any big sudden move, theres gunna be some heartache and some lovin'!

take care out there dudes
 
Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

Blah blah blah. Stick to equities ravo - & think twice before you accuse me of 'touting.'

Touting corn? Talk about cynicism running amok ... :confused:
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Hey I admit Ag is not my game. Let me know how the trade turns out in a couple months.
 
Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

Blah blah blah. Stick to equities ravo - & think twice before you accuse me of 'touting.'

Touting corn? Talk about cynicism running amok ... :confused:
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Hey I admit Ag is not my game. Let me know how the trade turns out in a couple months. And touting was a poor choice of words (without evidence). Apologies.
 
Another major long-term trend IMO (as in 5-10 years) is Japanese smallcap stocks, and Japan real estate stocks.

Japan has had a 14 year economic stagnation which is has only just looked like coming out of. Any business, especially a smaller company, which has survived this environment will have cut fat to the bone, will be fairly well managed, or inherently a very resilient business. Real estate is even more extreme - prices have been falling for ages until recently, imagine trying to make money in real estate when the values decline each year. So any remaining solvent developers, and any financially solid real estate investment companies should be good investments. Finally, govt bonds are yielding 1.5% - eventually as economic growth picks up, and stocks come slowly back into fashon, people will not be satisfied with that return and thus some of the huge amounts of money invested in JGBs will shift into stocks.

I wouldn't just go and buy an index or a Japan fund. Rather I would be looking for promising small growth stocks that in 5-10 years time could be billion dollar businesses. Japan now reminds me of the US or UK market in 1993-95 - plenty of gems to be unturned in the next couple of years, and the likelihood of solid returns for the medium to long term. I would also avoid exporters due to the likelihood of a slowly strengthening Yen.

I have a feeling something might happen with China in 2005 too, but I wouldn't make any bets right now. Overall, I have less long-term ideas now than I have had for some time. So I'm not making any major commitments, just preserving capital for the next opportunity.
 
Quote from Cutten:

Another major long-term trend IMO (as in 5-10 years) is Japanese smallcap stocks, and Japan real estate stocks.

Japan has had a 14 year economic stagnation which is has only just looked like coming out of. Any business, especially a smaller company, which has survived this environment will have cut fat to the bone, will be fairly well managed, or inherently a very resilient business. Real estate is even more extreme - prices have been falling for ages until recently, imagine trying to make money in real estate when the values decline each year. So any remaining solvent developers, and any financially solid real estate investment companies should be good investments. Finally, govt bonds are yielding 1.5% - eventually as economic growth picks up, and stocks come slowly back into fashon, people will not be satisfied with that return and thus some of the huge amounts of money invested in JGBs will shift into stocks.

I wouldn't just go and buy an index or a Japan fund. Rather I would be looking for promising small growth stocks that in 5-10 years time could be billion dollar businesses. Japan now reminds me of the US or UK market in 1993-95 - plenty of gems to be unturned in the next couple of years, and the likelihood of solid returns for the medium to long term. I would also avoid exporters due to the likelihood of a slowly strengthening Yen.

I have a feeling something might happen with China in 2005 too, but I wouldn't make any bets right now. Overall, I have less long-term ideas now than I have had for some time. So I'm not making any major commitments, just preserving capital for the next opportunity.
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What would you use to trade small growth Japanese stocks? Is there a fund you like?

Thanks
 
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