Quest for Growth

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Chart: 2000V & 60m Note: based on PA, modified DO line.

An opportunity to practice RangeUP---ABCDE as shown in the chart.
Entry price: 3676.25
Stop: 3671.25= low of A - 2ticks.
Risk: 5pts.
Initial target = entry price+ risk.
At most try three times if PA is still valid and previous two entries stopped out.

 

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Chart: 60m

Week 12/13-12/18
Top chart added one down DO line; bottom chart added one down m line and one up m line.

Last trade RangeUP---ABCDE: stopped out with 5ps loss . Then market BO below it not valid for planned 2 more trials. Watch for possible higher low or lower low which next down m line will be forming.

 

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Chart: 60m and 5m

 

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Chart: 60m

At the same DTL on both Monday and today, on Monday the market PB 78% of the previous up move, what will be happening after the last bar in the right chart?

from 3620 to 3691: 27 bars 71 pts
from 3691 to 3636: 13bars 55pts
from 3636 to 3689: 17 bars 53pts

 

[a drop of water]

Chart: 5000V

At any moment, we need to think of both bears and bulls. At red arrow, natural questions are described in the below and some analysis is given in the chart. The objective is to ask those questions and implement the similar analysis in real time.

1. Will magenta down TL hold with higher probability if L1 appears ?
2. Will blue up TL hold with higher probability if H1 appears?
3. how many times to try to find out the answers of 1 and 2?

From the above post, at 3691 of yesterday, a key choice is to whether to take profits if holding long and we can do the similar analysis shown in the below chart from the perspective of both bears and bulls. For example, factors favor exit: the first PB to DTL will more likely be down again to form HL or LL, and for the up move from 3620 to 3691 the 3rd up leg after the 2nd L1 is definitely weaker in buying pressure than that in the 2nd up leg. Factors favor continuing to hold: 62%PB means direction is now up , likely to have HL and go up more to have a new high higher than 3691 or 3700 for longer time frame.

 

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Chart: 60m
Update of post 34: the market chose the high > 3700. Now there are two possibilities from swing low 3702:
strong: blue dash line, HL >=3702 and HH > 3717
weak: two magenta dot lines. LL < 3702

The below chart showed the possible large time frame up channel in gold if weak case happens， which will need to be modified based on new PA.

 

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Chart: top two charts 5000V and 1000V; bottom two charts: 1000V

• Context at A : based on the analysis similar to that of post 35, bulls has a higher winning probability.
  • spike up + range.
  • at red TL of a weak up channel.
  • DB, HL.
  • at high of yesterday--- red hash line
• Setup: stop long 1 tick above high of A.
• Stop: pre low -2 ticks.

Target for long H1 at A:
Draw two tentative down TLs, which have to be modified based on new PA. Possible choices:

1. At E, exit at the close of the bull bar based on blue TL.
2. At E , wait considering 3 consecutive strong bull bars with the plan:

• T1 If bear SB and L1, exit long and short. SB: signal bar.
• T2 If bear SB and L1, exit long ; wait to short LH ( use lower time frame chart).
• T3 If bull SB, wait to exit long and short LH ( use lower time frame chart)
• T4 move stop to BE and make a new plan based on new PA.

The market chose the blue down TL, bear SB and L1. Suppose choose T1: exit long and short L1.​

Target for the above short L1:
Using the blue TL and point A to draw TCL ----- the blue dash line, and draw the middle line --- the blue dot line. With the bear bar close on its low and bo below the blue TCL, we can do one of the following:

• T1 exit at its close
• T2 wait to exit at H1 after the small bull body bar, reasonable to long this H1.
• If followed by a bear bar hold the short until a bull body bar, then do T1 or T2.

How to exit if long the above H1?

1. exit at the middle blue dot line if weak bulls.
2. exit at the down TL if strong bulls.
3. exit by bear L1 if very strong bulls.

Question: how to define precisely strong bulls/bears and weak bulls /bears?

 

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Chart: 1000V and 200V

Motivation for the post 37: I did limit long A but did not exit at E and exited much lower. In order to learn from this experience, i did the above analysis. When i was working on the post 37, i took long again and exited at first bear bar near the down TL at 200V (red up TL and high of yesterday is nearby too). Two trades were not bad, but can be improved in terms of consistency.

note:

• long entry: blue arrow facing to the right
• long exit: magenta arrow facing to the left
• short entry: magenta arrow facing to the right
• short exit: blue arrow facing to the left.

 

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Chart: 60m

Update of post 36: the market chose the weak case first but eventually reached HH at 3723.

1. FBO below 3702 ---- stay below 3702 for 5minutes.
2. FBO above 3717 --- HH at 3723 ; stay above 3717 for 5 minutes.
3. BO above 3717 again
4. BO below red UTL
5. Touched gold UTL, LL <3702 ; DB at 3683 --- the bottom of small gold range.

Question: Will it reach gold UTCL to have HH > 3717 or not reach gold UTL and have LH? If it < 3705, the bottom of the top box, it will highly likely have LL <3683.

 

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Chart: 10000Volume

Update: Market chose the LL <3683. Red arrow gave the time i finished modifying post 39, where i wrote if it < 3705, very likely it will move down < 3683 the pre swing low. We could have made a plan based on it.

1. short the close of the bar. stop: swing high +2 ticks = 3703; target: 3683-2ticks.
2. if it has LL < 3683, expect at least PB because of the following,
   • 3683 is the bottom of pre range.
   • Strong up from 3683 to 3702.5 to bo above the short magenta DTL.
3. no one knows for sure in advance the exact point to reverse up, but we can say for sure when PB becomes strong enough, it will become a reversal up.