Quadriga's Baha on bloomberg tv at 11:39

Quote from SethArb:

are there any hedge funds that fade all the trend
following ones ? they should be up then this yr for sure

:p
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Assuming they didnt get run over this past week.

FWIW, I saw a list of top performers over the past 36 months. 80% of them were index premo sellers. A few on the list I didnt recognize, but still it does say something about the tradeability of these markets for bigger money.

Senor Zen
 
Quote from Aaron:

The trend followers like Quadriga, John Henry, and Meyer Capital Management have been having a tough 2005 because all the major markets have been going in one direction just long enough for the trend followers to get aboard, and then they reverse and go the other direction for about a month and reverse again. The trend followers try to diversify across uncorrelated commodities, but these monthly reversals have been happening in all the currencies, the energies, the debt markets, and even the equity markets -- there hasn't been any shelter from the whipsaws.

I don't think trend following is dead, though. It is one of the few strategies that has withstood the test of time. It'll come back and so will Quadriga, John Henry, etc.
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Interested in knowing how you would describe your style. :confused:
 
Problem in this market, for the last year is that everything you think is safe isn't, this year has been one of the worst and hardest years for many investors. Constant Head Fakes in each direction, an i head in April Instituional trading at the banks accounted for 40 percent of the market.
 
Quote from OddTrader:

Interested in knowing how you would describe your style.
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The Schindler Trading program makes short term trades -- 1-3 day in length usually. We go both long and short and are often on the sidelines. The indicators we use are a mixed bag of sentiment, trend following, over-bought/over-sold, inter-market, and fundamental. The strategies are systematic and traded automatically through Dynaorder and Interactive Broker's API.

If an ocean wave is like a multi-week trend (like John Henry and Quadriga are trying to trade), the ripples on the surface of that wave are what Schindler Trading is trying to capture.

Aaron Schindler
Schindler Trading
 
Quote from Aaron:

The trend followers like Quadriga, John Henry, and Meyer Capital Management have been having a tough 2005 because all the major markets have been going in one direction just long enough for the trend followers to get aboard, and then they reverse and go the other direction for about a month and reverse again. The trend followers try to diversify across uncorrelated commodities, but these monthly reversals have been happening in all the currencies, the energies, the debt markets, and even the equity markets -- there hasn't been any shelter from the whipsaws.

I don't think trend following is dead, though. It is one of the few strategies that has withstood the test of time. It'll come back and so will Quadriga, John Henry, etc.
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Nice analysis. I don't think trend following will ever die either - but considering how popular it is - I'd love to see more of these whipsaws to shake out all the weak hands. Then maybe we can see some real trending markets.
 
I respectfully disagree ... those ripples are caused by the day traders and scalpers !


-If an ocean wave is like a multi-week trend (like John Henry and Quadriga are trying to trade), the ripples on the surface of that wave are what Schindler Trading is trying to capture.-


:)
 
As somone who had money in funds a few years back. If you desired to do the research you could see the dates when your fund was most likely getting in and out of the markets. By correlating your returns and seeing which commodities hit new 55 day highs or 20 days highs or whatever. You also got a sense when these funds got stopped out. I.E. three day pull back. 2 week low 20 day pull back whatever.

If I figured this out for a few funds just looking at my returns and looking at IBD for the futures markets...

Imagine what some good computer analysis could do to these suckers. You analyze volume open interest and whatever else and then fade the crap out of them and then drive for their stops. Plus you have the floor on you side. I guarantee that the trend follower guys with brains are changing their entry tactics.
For a while they were a very obvious heard of elephants.


By the way if you looked at the up months Mr. Schindler has vs his downmonths you can pretty much see that he buys pull backs in strength and sells rallies in weakness. If the markets do momentum pullbacks and then retouch their highs or make new highs (or vice versa) Mr. Schindler does quite well.
 
Quote from jem:

By the way if you looked at the up months Mr. Schindler has vs his downmonths you can pretty much see that he buys pull backs in strength and sells rallies in weakness. If the markets do momentum pullbacks and then retouch their highs or make new highs (or vice versa) Mr. Schindler does quite well.
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Perhaps you can tell us if Mr. Schindler is having a up or down month for May...
 
I used to run some strategies in wealth lab that turned out to be an excellent approximation of how aron was doing.

I no longer use wealth lab.

But I just pulled up the index charts.

The month does not look like a great month for him even entering trades. The beginning of the month had five up days in the opposite direction of the previous low which was not even a new low. So I guess no trades fired in the beginningof the month.


Now the next one is a bit tricky too. because now we have a pull back trade in the the middle of the range. I do not think his systems would have fired on that trade either.

but if they did he probably is up half his typical up month.

But again this was a tricky month because the daily charts do not reveal many momentum pull back trades. Whereas april had a textbook setup with great followthrough.
 
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