QQQQ double top today?

The Dow is also exhibiting topping tendencies. Look at the RSI in the attached chart. The bearish divergence is noticeable. The RSI has been a good indicator with its divergences to mark the bottom and perhaps now the top. The up volume is also lower than the down days volume. Overall, my third add is perhaps a loser. The breakouts from the flags had provided nice long entries previously. The breakout below the trend line is a signal to close all longs. I don't know about going short on the Dow, but perhaps use the QQQQs, where a short probably will be more profitable.

As always, stops are there, so if the prognotications are wrong, then we live to play another day.
 
great charts guys. I noticed the same things...but i couldnt post from my bloomberg.

I was short, but with this trading range decided to wait it out until fed speak next week.

I was also commenting that the traders almanac stats have been way off this year...and q4 performance may be the same. even though these months are traditionally good...i think after the run up...the odds are on the short side.
 
Quote from dac8555:

great charts guys. I noticed the same things...but i couldnt post from my bloomberg.

I was short, but with this trading range decided to wait it out until fed speak next week.

I was also commenting that the traders almanac stats have been way off this year...and q4 performance may be the same. even though these months are traditionally good...i think after the run up...the odds are on the short side.
More...
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Overdue for correction, but OCT was also, few/far between;
Almanac [Hirsch] notes 4th quarter is strongest of all.

Wisdom is profitable to direct:cool:
 
problem is that the qqqq`s are stronger than the dow or s&p, if anything the qqqq`s are holding the dow up lately or bringing it back from totally selling off.....the nasdaq has a lot of momentum....i would rather short the dow in the near-term....dow has maybe 100 upside....and 500-700 downside in the next 3 months.....you just don`t want to have that whole 100 go against you....but i would feel pretty safe with any short of the ym at the 12230 level....could go against you for 20 points but the upside is 100-150 pretty easily from there back down....just my three cents
 
Here's another interesting observation:

I've been reading similar blogs and articles stating that midterm elections can precede a big post drop after a recent run up:

http://www.zecco.com/blogs/acrowders_blog/interesting

I'm not certain I agree with the blog author's comment about the largest net short commercial position since 2001; however, that being said, it is net short and increasingly short, while largely divergent to the large and small speculators long positions over the last few months. The commercials have more recently snowballed towards a massive 71% (greater on latest release)
net short position!


http://www.technicalindicators.com/cotstocks.htm

So as insane as the price momentum is on the upside, I think the commercial COT positions tend to corroborate the possibility of a short term top, at least. Also, considering there has been nothing but upside the last couple of months, one has to wonder when the funds will unload their yearly losers for tax considerations. I, for one, am still waiting.

the 1st five days of january-- so didn't go the year.
typically investors get spooked by october -- boo -- not this year.
I get the suspicious feeling that santa is going to be seeing a lot of leftover turkeys before he comes to town this year.
 
blog didn't come out, but try:

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/3SignsThatAStockCrashIsComing.aspx

"This is only the third time in recent history that this short position has been so large. The other two times were early 2001, just before the S&P 500 tumbled 38%, and November 2004, after which the market rose some more and then corrected in early 2005. "

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http://www.zecco.com/blogs/acrowders_blog/Interesting-Mid-term-Election-Statistic.aspx

"“Another interesting (and not often mentioned) statistic that I came across was that when the market had a strong September and October during the mid-term elections (4 year cycle) every single time the market experienced a dramatic sell-off during the middle of November. The scary thing was that the sell-off averaged 5% to 10%. This is certainly something that we will be watching as we move closer to the mid-term elections.”
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Fidelity's take:

http://personal.fidelity.com/myfide...X3ZQXKACQEFEPCFFI?keyword=stocks&sourcecd=FEA

"November has historically been one of the best-performing months for the U.S. stock market. For those Novembers in which there was a mid-term election, the results have been even better. Since 1950, the average monthly return for the 13 Novembers that held mid-term elections was 3.6%, compared to 2.3% for all Novembers (see Exhibit 1).1"
 
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