QQQ The March to 500

schizo said:
Actually, I think he's a bit mistaken in his analysis. First, back in 1999, most people followed the market by watching CNBC. Even though Internet was available, unless you were a day trader like me, you got your information mainly through old skool outlets.

He also states that everyone was euphoric and talked about stocks back then but that is not the case now. What he seems to conveniently forget is that, in 1999, the main channel of communication was through word of mouth. But who the hell does that now? It's all done through social media now. Does he not look at Twitter/X or other popular platforms? It's a never-ending buzz awash with people talking about Nvidea and Bitcoin. You can't say that ain't no hysteria.
More...

I think the key point was that in 1999 everyone was involved in the stock market somehow and there was broad participation. If that was the case today, surely people would be talking about it non-stop both on X and in real life.

He also look at various data points (COT report, S&P equal weighted index at low levels indicating low breadth (participation), etc.) which indicates that the participation in this rally is not at a point where everyone is long.

schizo said:
, I think the market hysteria now is worst than the one in 1999. Back then it was just sheer greed. Now, it has morphed into some cult-ish voodoo state of mind. We live in some really strange times.
More...

Could be. I wasn't around, so I won't make any objections to that.

I think (maybe I can research it and give a more qualified view) a big difference from then and now is the amount of passive funds frequently flowing into the market.

My impression is that in present time, everyone in Norway is saving for their pension or just general investment through passive index funds. I know that was most certainly not true as late as 10 years ago. The public had little to no knowledge about stocks.

This could partially explain why there's always a bid in the indices.

I believe the common man in the US have been investing in stocks for much longer, but I'm sure that even in the US a lot of the money have shifted from actively managed funds to passive investments.

I'm sure it's a worldwide phenomena.
 
At the rate markets are moving we should see 6000 on s and p by end of July.

7000 in August..
Basically just tack on 500 to 1000 points on the spy on a month basis.

Analysis are going to have to up all targets. ..

S&p to possibly 10000 by early 2025. This is no joke. This market could nake the dot com bubble look like it never even happened.

Stocks are literally going haywire ...

I'm seeing etfs up 30 to 50% in 1 single month. These are the 2x and 3x etfs. They will probably end the year up over 1000%.
 
Laissez Faire said:
He also look at various data points (COT report, S&P equal weighted index at low levels indicating low breadth (participation), etc.) which indicates that the participation in this rally is not at a point where everyone is long.
More...
Like how the hell do you know that EVERYONE is in? Sorry, but I think the guy is full of hot air. Regardless, everyone is more crazy now than 1999. That's for sure.

BTW the whole point of making these predictions is to do it before the market reverses, not after it tanks. I'm sure that guy you allude to will come out once the maket goes down and say "everyone is in now".
 
schizo said:
Like how the hell do you know that EVERYONE is in? Sorry, but I think the guy is full of hot air. Regardless, everyone is more crazy now than 1999. That's for sure.

BTW the whole point of making these predictions is to do it before the market reverses, not after it tanks. I'm sure that guy you allude to will come out once the maket goes down and say "everyone is in now".
More...



That's the problem with predictions.....timing this is nearly impossible but saying this is the top and most people here will think that person is an idiot...the point is there will be a top, there always is, but when and how it occurs will be the hardest point to figure out.
 
Warren buffet indicator at 188 and this is from April 2024. So this indicator is much higher at the moment.

Show markets extremely overbought
 
schizo said:
Like how the hell do you know that EVERYONE is in? Sorry, but I think the guy is full of hot air. Regardless, everyone is more crazy now than 1999. That's for sure.

BTW the whole point of making these predictions is to do it before the market reverses, not after it tanks. I'm sure that guy you allude to will come out once the maket goes down and say "everyone is in now".
More...

His entire approach is based on positioning. I suggest you check out his interview in Unknown Market Wizards and other free content he has if you genuinely want to learn more about his approach.

I don't take any positions myself based on his content as I don't need to, but he strikes me as the real deal and it's always interesting to listen to his comments.

Trying to pick a top during a raging bull market is a fools errand. If the market reverses and the time comes to be short, there's plenty of time for that after the cracks have started to show. Early shorts will have blown up ages ago.

He made a very succinct quote which I think is so true for trading in general:

"You don't want to be a contrarian to price. You want to be a contrarian to participation."

The market turns when everyone is long and the last short gave up as there's nobody left to buy.
 
Laissez Faire said:
His entire approach is based on positioning. I suggest you check out his interview in Unknown Market Wizards and other free content he has if you genuinely want to learn more about his approach.

I don't take any positions myself based on his content as I don't need to, but he strikes me as the real deal and it's always interesting to listen to his comments.

Trying to pick a top during a raging bull market is a fools errand. If the market reverses and the time comes to be short, there's plenty of time for that after the cracks have started to show. Early shorts will have blown up ages ago.

He made a very succinct quote which I think is so true for trading in general:

"You don't want to be a contrarian to price. You want to be a contrarian to participation."

The market turns when everyone is long and the last short gave up as there's nobody left to buy.
More...



Last short gave up?

No way will that ever be known. I'm sure by now shorts are far far away from this market. What's the amount of overall shares short vs long
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top