Quote from bobcathy1:
The strategy works this way.
You short what is being deleted on the day they announce it.
And buy what is being added the same day.
The day it takes effect, cover the shorts and sell the longs.
No way, the only people that think it is still played that way are maybe the commentators on CNBC.
There is no edge if you do that because one it's the qqq's not the spoos, and secondly the qqq's rebalancing are much much easier to figure out than the s&p replacements which are are more subjective.
To do it right you have to buy and short the "proposed" list sometime prior to the day they announce it. Then you usually try to take profits after the announcment or when it actually takes effect although most of the time there is little to make between the announcement and the actual date the additions and subtractions are done.
Also, almost every big brokerage house/market maker has had internal "proposed" lists floating around for 2-3 weeks and you had better belive they have already positioned themselves sof that if the stock gaps up or down the day of the announcment they are in a position to buy or sell that gap.
SB for example had this list out about a full week ago as I saw it on Monday and others did as well. ( I haven't broken it down, but glacing at it, it looks like they got most of the them right)
If you want to see how the stragegy would work if properly implemented, I would bet that if you bought and shorted the proposed list below on say Monday's close and then close the positions on the open following the announcement day (not the day it takes effect but the actuall announcement day) you will do better than the other way where there is very little edge at all these days I would think.
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The most likely additions according to Salomon Smith Barney are the following:
Career Education (CECO:Nasdaq)
CH Robinson (CHRW:Nasdaq)
Dentsply (XRAY: Nasdaq)
Dreyer's Grand Ice Cream (DRYR:Nasdaq)
Expeditors (EXPD: Nasdaq)
Fast (FAST: Nasdaq)
First Health Group (FHCC:Nasdaq)
Garmin (GRMN:Nasdaq)
Gentex (GNTX: Nasdaq)
Henry Schein (HSIC: Nasdaq)
Lamar Advertising (LAMR:Nasdaq)
Patterson Dental (PDCO:Nasdaq)
Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN:Nasdaq)
Petsmart (PETM:Nasdaq)
Pixar (PIXR:Nasdaq)
Ross Stores (ROST:Nasdaq)
Whole Foods Market (WFMI:Nasdaq)
The most likely deletions are:
Abgenix (ABGX:Nasdaq)
ADC Telecommuniciations (ADCT:Nasdaq)
Andrx (ADRX:Nasdaq)
Applied Micro (AMCC:Nasdaq)
Atmal (ATML:Nasdaq)
Charter Communications (CHTR:Nasdaq)
Conexant (CNXT:Nasdaq)
i2 Technologies (ITWO:Nasdaq)
ImClone Systems (IMCL:Nasdaq)
Integrated Device Tech (IDTI:Nasdaq)
PMC-Sierra (PMCS:Nasdaq)
Protein Design (PDLI:Nasdaq)
Rational Software (RATL:Nasdaq)
RF MicroDevices (RFMD: Nasdaq)
Sanmina (SANM:Nasdaq)
Sepracor (SEPR:Nasdaq)
Vitesse Semiconductor (VTSS:Nasdaq)