QCOM - what is going on here?
- Thread starter iceman1
- Start date
Quote from iceman1:
12-05-06 10:02 AM
QCOM
about f-king time>> now can we get it back to 45 by 12/31/06? im watching closely to add >> but this stock has been schizo last 4 months so don't want to jump in yet >> although to me it looks like it is coming out of a bullish triangle!
thoughts?
IcE
see there is a lesson here!
i knew QCOM was at least gonna exceed 40 soon but i waited b4 adding stock. i hate when i do that >> react instead of anticipate and take the shot. reminds me of a poster i had in my office in the 90s: "you always miss 100% of the shots you don't take"
of course QCOM still "might" have a ways to go (at least another 20% in st). My thinking in not doubling up was it would PB and re-test TL (3750) before popping higher; so i also sold some 3750c too soon thereby cutting off upside profits on today's anticipated pop. i mean does it make any sense to post that QCOM is going to a given price level (per my analysis) and then sell premium that reduces said profit objective??! i think i said i was looking for 45. So whether that happens or not, it would not make sense to sell premium below the 4250-45 strikes; i need someone to tie my hands so i don't get the urge to sell premium (except when neutralizing, locking in a profit objective or creating a very + expectancy)>> when i am trading direction! (preferably a beautiful blonde)
what did Livermore say? it was never my thinking that made big money for me... it was always my sitting"! Duh.
i know over the past 5 weeks i have given up about 60000+ minimum in profits by selling premium (and NOT being nimble enough to reverse) on BIDU, PD, CME SOX and some others! Now QCOM maybe.
makes me wish i never read an option book! knowledge is power... except when misapplied!
IcE
For Sure. I kind of forgot about this stock last week and didnt follow through myself.
Man, what a chart. On 11/10 confirmed the double bottom and started a run, but than retraced most of it over the next couple weeks and I think thats when we were looking closely.
But on 12/1 you can see either the 1 month, 3month or 6month on the MACD hist, the trending fast line starting to just poke through to the upside which was a pretty decent buy signal. Then the very next trading day, this move was confirmed as the trend line breached and thus now a nice 8% move or so in the bag the last few trading days. At this point its really speculation as to where it goes. $40 seems like a decent resistance point. It hasnt traded with an conviction about this point since June/July
Quote from iceman1:
what did Livermore say? it was never my thinking that made big money for me... it was always my sitting"! Duh.
i know over the past 5 weeks i have given up about 60000+ minimum in profits by selling premium (and NOT being nimble enough to reverse) on BIDU, PD, CME SOX and some others! Now QCOM maybe.
makes me wish i never read an option book! knowledge is power... except when misapplied!
IcE
LOL - its relative buddy. You probably have more maturity and patience than me; I tend to trade too much if given the chance. But selling options or spreads can be good, because they it will keep you out of trouble.
Being tied up due to selling premium isnt the end of the world as long as you are still making money.
Yet, you bring up an interesting point. An inverse relationship that seems to be very complex. Why does it always seem to work that way.?? In other words, your tied up and cant trade because you sold premium on CME or whatever options, yet everything else you seem to think or want to trade, goes your way. Yet when the funds are finally cleared or available again, its a somewhat different story??
thanks for the replies!
EXACTLY as per your above observation. another quote i still have on my desk today is attributed to Richard Dennis. i (and likely many others) seem to honor it by it's breach!
to-wit:
"you have to minimize your losses and TRY TO PRESERVE CAPITAL for those very few instances where you can make a lot in a very short period of time. What you CANNOT AFFORD TO DO is throw away your capital on SUBOPTIMAL TRADES" (emphasis added)
bonne chance bro
M
IcE