Q4 2013: A Market Inflection Point

Quote from hafez50:

Cod you're 100% correct in that nobody expects it and I mean nobody . Throw in margin at all time highs , terrible earnings being ignored and market cap to GDP back near all time highs and things dicey
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Now, let's throw in the biggest bastard of the bunch.

All those stupid little aholes who are going to be buying every dip like right now for the next few days/weeks. Gonna be a watershed moment when everyone figures out there is going to be no quick bounce back this time, just more and more cascading losses. That is - if I'm right. It's going to take some heavy losses and a couple events to totally shift perception and the balance of power between shorts and longs right now. AND, I still think that's exactly what's going to play out this quarter.
 
Quote from drownpruf:

I hope we rally a bit as well. I'd like the opportunity to short higher.
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Shorted AAPL @ 490.50. Last individual stock I give you. This ain't no day trade though. I'm in it for weeks/months. I'll get out around 425. Short more if it rallies on buyback news.

Top brand in the world? Story over and dead. $50 iphones. Hehe. Stick a fork in this pig. Its best days behind it. Not a massive position tho. Just 2% of my portfolio. Looking to add on buyback news or a move to $515.
 
Philosophical question time...

Are you more interested in being right or making money?

Are you willing to change your mind if it makes you money?


Market time...

Look at a daily chart for E6 (EuroFX). Do you see an uptrend with several slight pauses or the very common futures pattern - "false breakout and an over the waterfall decline" - where the "over the waterfall" part is just beginning...

Will the Euro continue to rise the longer the US shutdown continues or will it collapse and foil the crowd betting on the shutdown story...
 
Quote from blah12345678:

Philosophical question time...

Are you more interested in being right or making money?

Are you willing to change your mind if it makes you money?


Market time...

Look at a daily chart for E6 (EuroFX). Do you see an uptrend with several slight pauses or the very common futures pattern - "false breakout and an over the waterfall decline" - where the "over the waterfall" part is just beginning...

Will the Euro continue to rise the longer the US shutdown continues or will it collapse and foil the crowd betting on the shutdown story...
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I'd always rather make money than be right. I'm willing to change my mind on a dime almost always, except in the event when I have a super strong conviction on a trade. In that case, I'm willing to ride it out even if it gets a little bumpy.

Some of my positions now are illiquid and cannot be exited very easily. I'm already invested in a big way and I'm not about to change my mind after what I saw today. I'm sticking with my positions until my stop gets hit or until my thesis plays out.

I looked at the Euro chart and watch the euro everyday. I also look much more closely at the yen. I made NO predictions on euro or on european stocks or indices.

Look at the yen. It looks terrible for Abe what's happening. I think the Nikkei is going to fall off a cliff and I'm already positioned that way.

Finally, there is NO crowd betting on a shutdown story. Today people are sloooowly starting to consider it's a possibility and you've seen the vix rise 15%, but we're still a far ways away from where this is going to go IMO.
 
Hmmph.

When I first posted Sunday I sounded like a madman. Everything I said came true. Only events are happening even much faster than I thought.

I hope some of you used today as an AMAZING opportunity to get short and buy volatility and didn't "buy the dip".

Next steps, as I see them: this move is happening with great force and rapidity. I now predict in the coming days and weeks a massive withdrawl of liquidity from the system. 2008 all over again.

Money is starting to freeze up a little: Fidelity sold all its short term paper today, IB, CME, and TBTF banks are starting to raise margin requirements and are removing their risk and capital from the market.

This will have a reaction. Ironically, just like 2008 I now think the next area of vulnerability will be the financials and to a lesser extent exchanges and insurance companies.

I used today to get short some financial names and bought puts on them. Full disclosure. You might be interested and might profit by pursuing a similar tack as well. Or, maybe I'm a total idiot.

LATER
 
Quote from cmdtytrdr:

Hmmph.

When I first posted Sunday I sounded like a madman. Everything I said came true. Only events are happening even much faster than I thought.

I hope some of you used today as an AMAZING opportunity to get short and buy volatility and didn't "buy the dip".

Next steps, as I see them: this move is happening with great force and rapidity. I now predict in the coming days and weeks a massive withdrawl of liquidity from the system. 2008 all over again.

Money is starting to freeze up a little: Fidelity sold all its short term paper today, IB, CME, and TBTF banks are starting to raise margin requirements and are removing their risk and capital from the market.

This will have a reaction. Ironically, just like 2008 I now think the next area of vulnerability will be the financials and to a lesser extent exchanges and insurance companies.

I used today to get short some financial names and bought puts on them. Full disclosure. You might be interested and might profit by pursuing a similar tack as well. Or, maybe I'm a total idiot.

LATER
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Hope my broker doesn't go belly up in the coming months :)
 
Quote from cmdtytrdr:

Hmmph.

When I first posted Sunday I sounded like a madman. Everything I said came true. Only events are happening even much faster than I thought.

I hope some of you used today as an AMAZING opportunity to get short and buy volatility and didn't "buy the dip".

Next steps, as I see them: this move is happening with great force and rapidity. I now predict in the coming days and weeks a massive withdrawl of liquidity from the system. 2008 all over again.

Money is starting to freeze up a little: Fidelity sold all its short term paper today, IB, CME, and TBTF banks are starting to raise margin requirements and are removing their risk and capital from the market.

This will have a reaction. Ironically, just like 2008 I now think the next area of vulnerability will be the financials and to a lesser extent exchanges and insurance companies.

I used today to get short some financial names and bought puts on them. Full disclosure. You might be interested and might profit by pursuing a similar tack as well. Or, maybe I'm a total idiot.

LATER
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Yessss.... the mkt is down exactly 1% from your prophetic Sunday clairvoyant call. Astonishing. Especially in light of the continued shutdown and default risk. HTF do you do it?!

I did mean to ask about your comment about the SPX PE ratio. It's actually quite a bit lower than a year ago. Not on a forward, but trailing basis.

Wow.

XLF will rally 1% tomorrow.
 
Quote from drownpruf:
Yessss.... the mkt is down exactly 1% from your prophetic Sunday clairvoyant call. Astonishing. Especially in light of the continued shutdown and default risk. HTF do you do it?!
I did mean to ask about your comment about the SPX PE ratio. It's actually quite a bit lower than a year ago. Not on a forward, but trailing basis.
Wow. XLF will rally 1% tomorrow.
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I'm beary disappointed it hasn't gone done further.
 
Quote from blakpacman:

I'm beary disappointed it hasn't gone done further.
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'OL MASSA,

'OL MASSA O'DUMBAR,

PLEASE, PLEASE GIVE THAT 'OL BOY DROWNPRUF HEEES D'YIP

HE NEED DAT DIP

HE GON', I SAY HE GON' BUY DAT DIP IF YOU GIV'T TO 'EM. PLEASE MASSA?

:D :D :D :D :D :D
 
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