I lost $156 in 15 days of trading, and made lots of mistakes i could avoid, so I'm near break even, someone says that not losing is a big first step to becoming profitable, so I don't think it is a very bad result? isn't it?
putting all my efforts
- Thread starter darktrader
- Start date
I lost $156 in 15 days of trading, and made lots of mistakes i could avoid, so I'm near break even, someone says that not losing is a big first step to becoming profitable, so I don't think it is a very bad result? isn't it?
u lose $156. how are u going to pay your bills? u need at least a minimum $4K income per month to live comfortably. If u are married with kids, u need at least $7K per month. u got 15 more days to come up $4K to pay your bills.
Let me give u an advice. Trading is a career IF one join the house whether the house is a prop firm, HFT firm, hedge funds, brokerage and banks.
In the other thread u mention "you always say that it is impossible to become profitale"
Let me ask u this. How can one become a successful trader from self learning? Those chose the path of self learning to trade are doomed. If a person never traded before and want to self learn how to trade by reading books and subscribing 3rd party vendors thinking they will get rich quick will fall in the 95% losers. Don't u think so?
Seriously darktrader, the numbers more than 90% traders lose are REAL. The odds are not in your favor unless u join the house.
Most ET members think that I'am trolling 90% of small traders lose do not like the hear the truth.
What mistakes did you make that you could've avoided?
Do you have rules that are designed to keep you from making these mistakes and you didn't follow those rules, or do you say you could've avoided those mistakes because after the fact you see things that you missed at the hard right edge?
I can put on a trade based on a valid setup and if the trade hits my stop loss I can then look all over the chart and even at charts in other time frames and dig up some reason why I shouldn't have taken the trade, but in reality setups fail all the time, that's what stops are for, and if I followed my plan, then no mistake.
On the other hand, if I make a true mistake (hesitation, chasing, fighting a trend, moving a stop too fast, jumping the gun, etc.), that is definitely something I could have avoided.
"The future is that time when you'll wish you had done what you aren't doing now."
I'm not talking of stops I took because a setup failed, I'm talking about not respecting 2 precise money management rules like max daily loss, max loss from a profit. This two rules are there to avoid trying to pick up a reversal with tight stops that will never came, this is the very big mistake sometimes I still made, and that I know could kill my account, because I can lose control and do crazy things.
Hesitation, chasing, fighting the trend, moving a stop two fast, jumping the gun, could happen if I have a valid reason, if they are part of a setup.
emg, i really think that 99% of traders fail, so I agree about what you are saying, you are asking me how can i earn $7000 per month, I'm trading now with 1 contract, if in 6 months I will have consistent profits, I will increase to 2 and so on, I'm not afraid of using 10 contracts In my crazy days when i knew nothing about trading I builded monsters of 20-30 and more This is how I hope to pay my bills. It is realistic if I manage to be consistent with small size and little by little I increase, I mean not after a few days or a few weeks but after months and months of good results.
Along the same lines .. if your skill set is insufficient to get a job at a prop firm, HFT firm, hedge fund, brokerage or bank, then you're unlikely to have the background competencies to be successful trading as an individual .. not to mention that individuals have a negative bias due to comms, latency & other information disadvantages.
There is no mystical zen-like art to this game ..
Just like there's no art to counting cards in a casino.
It's all hard numerical work.
starting from tomorrow I will start simulating, I simulate because I want to understand which is the best way to trade my strategy.
the money management rules I broke many times in my last days of trading are the fundamental to become profitable, the simulation is not to "cure" my behavior that leads me to broke my MM rules, I'm "curing" this with the help of a psychologist.
the big issue for me since I started to trade my strategy is when to take profit, in this last 2 year I made enormous efforts to change the bad habit to take profits immediately as I saw green, and now I have no problem to let winners run, but too much times I saw my trades going over $100-$200 to close them at break even, before starting the journal I made 8 days without profits because of this, it devastated my mind. Anyway I believe that the only way to win this game is to have lots of small loser and a few big winners, and my strategy will focus on this, but I want to try with two lots, maybe two lots could help me, even if I ended up thinking that to be profitable you just need 1 lots. I hope that with 2 lots I will have less small losers thanks to the first lot and I can still have a few big winners with the second lot, this will be a way to address my emotional issues.
I was thinking about taking the first profit to a fixed target based on RISK/REWARD, where I hope at least half of my trades will go, it could be $100 (I trade mainly NQ and FESX), this because I have to keep my RISK/REWARD at least 1/1, I usually place a stop at <$50 and a few times >$50 but <$100.
My strategy tries to pick intraday reversal (often continuation of the main daily-weekly-monthly) at key daily-weekly-monthly S/R, so I usually wait for the price to go to a long term S/R in more than one correlated markets at the same time and see what happen, then I enter and put my stops 2-3 ticks above/below the low/high of the possible reverse S/R, I don't put the stop below/above the low/high because I see that often when the price retrace to this levels it breaks down/up, and my stop will suffer of some slippage.
in the simulation below I don't even think about what the second lot could do, I try to keep losses + winners around $0 or >$0 with the first lot, this way I hope I will have more small winners so that I can avoid string of days without a gain like I experienced, and it will be easier to address the emotional issues due to the uncertainly of where to take profit with a 1 lot trading style.
let's take 10 trades, if I manage to have at least 5 winners and 5 losers, I know that I will be profitable because the second lot will make the difference, the real gain, but this way it would be like trading with 1 lot⦠also to have at least half winners you have to be very very good, because the stop will be at 10 ticks and the first lot target will be at more (commissions and slippage) than 20 ticks, so maybe it make sense to trade with two lots only if you manage to have 6 winners and 4 losers with the first lot, this way you manage to make constant small gains while waiting for the big second lot gain to happen.
also when the first lot hit the target, what to do with the stop of the second lot ? in this simulation I moved it at BE +1tick, if I don't do this way, I must be right more than 6 times over 10, but is it correct? shouldn't I move the stop at BE only to a point where I know my trade will be invalidatedâ¦.?
2 possible scenarios:
this scenario must have: stop 10 ticks - first target 24 ticks
2 contracts- stop $50 for each contract
2 stops = $100 + $10(commissions) + $10(slippage) = $120 (loss)
lot.1 target $130 / lot.2 stop at break even +1 = $120 (gain)
5 Winners - 5 Losers = 0
6 Winners - 4 Losers = 240
7 Winners - 3 Losers = 480
8 Winners - 2 Losers = 720
9 Winners - 1 Losers = 960
--------------------------------------------------------------
this scenario must have: stop 10 ticks - first target 18 ticks
3 contracts- stop $50 for each contract
3 stops = $150 + 15(commissions) + 15(slippage) = $180 (loss)
lot.1 (2 contracts) target $195 / lot.2 stop at break even +1 = $180 (gain)
5 Winners - 5 Losers = 0
6 Winners - 4 Losers = 360
7 Winners - 3 Losers = 720
8 Winners - 2 Losers = 1080
9 Winners - 1 Losers = 1440
you see with the second scenario I must have a little less good, but the stops will be hard to take, and it will be very hard to re-enter a position if your stops are hit and maybe you want to try again a second time...
if you use a multiple lots strategy basically to take small profits with the first lot, and let the profits run with the remaining lots, wouldn't be better to trade only with 1 lot trying keep losses waiting for the few big winners ???
Also I would like to ask you if you can suggest a filter I can add to my strategy when I enter a trade, as I told you I use convergence of long terms S/R on multiple markets to trade intraday, this because I think that when the price reaches this important S/R can make big moves in intraday, often those points could be the low and the high for the day, a filter could be a signal from an indicator, candles, stop running action and so onâ¦
I usually see how the market react, I mean just see if there is some actions and the market seams to bounce, also I always enter at the market, but I'm planning to enter at limit 2-3 ticks below the price as it often happen that I have to suffer a few ticks of red before going greenâ¦
THIS IS MORE ON MY STRATEGY:
I manually draw trendlines â 50 and 200 SMA and FIBS replacement lines on several correlated markets on MONTHLY â WEEKLY â DAILY charts.
Markets are:
US markets, tradestation symbols: NQ-ES-YM-COMPX-NDX.X-INDU-INX-RUT
EU markets, tradestation symbol: FDAX-DE:$DAX-FESX
I try not to have the same trendlines in the various time frames, but it could happen.
to check all this chart at the same time I have a RADARSCREEN that show me where is the next S/R and the distance on the various chart, a kind of resume.
to have a better view I also have the intersection points of the current candle displayed in horizontal a 5min time frame, to better understand: in a NQ 5 min I have the horizontal lines derived from NQ M-W-D interception point of the current candle.
this are the info I have, and also I use a 1min chart with floor trader pivot and yestreday high-low-close of NQ-ES-YM, this is something I used a lot in the past to lose money, maybe I could delete this, too much info.
it is a lot of work since I have to manually draw all this stuff, and actually I should update every day the daily chart.
RS picture:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3167146
horizontal lines for US picture:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3167147
horizontal lines for EU picture:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3167150
sample of ES monthly chart:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3167151
sample of ES weekly chart:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3167154
sample of ES daily chart:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3167156
MANY THANKS!!!
the money management rules I broke many times in my last days of trading are the fundamental to become profitable, the simulation is not to "cure" my behavior that leads me to broke my MM rules, I'm "curing" this with the help of a psychologist.
the big issue for me since I started to trade my strategy is when to take profit, in this last 2 year I made enormous efforts to change the bad habit to take profits immediately as I saw green, and now I have no problem to let winners run, but too much times I saw my trades going over $100-$200 to close them at break even, before starting the journal I made 8 days without profits because of this, it devastated my mind. Anyway I believe that the only way to win this game is to have lots of small loser and a few big winners, and my strategy will focus on this, but I want to try with two lots, maybe two lots could help me, even if I ended up thinking that to be profitable you just need 1 lots. I hope that with 2 lots I will have less small losers thanks to the first lot and I can still have a few big winners with the second lot, this will be a way to address my emotional issues.
I was thinking about taking the first profit to a fixed target based on RISK/REWARD, where I hope at least half of my trades will go, it could be $100 (I trade mainly NQ and FESX), this because I have to keep my RISK/REWARD at least 1/1, I usually place a stop at <$50 and a few times >$50 but <$100.
My strategy tries to pick intraday reversal (often continuation of the main daily-weekly-monthly) at key daily-weekly-monthly S/R, so I usually wait for the price to go to a long term S/R in more than one correlated markets at the same time and see what happen, then I enter and put my stops 2-3 ticks above/below the low/high of the possible reverse S/R, I don't put the stop below/above the low/high because I see that often when the price retrace to this levels it breaks down/up, and my stop will suffer of some slippage.
in the simulation below I don't even think about what the second lot could do, I try to keep losses + winners around $0 or >$0 with the first lot, this way I hope I will have more small winners so that I can avoid string of days without a gain like I experienced, and it will be easier to address the emotional issues due to the uncertainly of where to take profit with a 1 lot trading style.
let's take 10 trades, if I manage to have at least 5 winners and 5 losers, I know that I will be profitable because the second lot will make the difference, the real gain, but this way it would be like trading with 1 lot⦠also to have at least half winners you have to be very very good, because the stop will be at 10 ticks and the first lot target will be at more (commissions and slippage) than 20 ticks, so maybe it make sense to trade with two lots only if you manage to have 6 winners and 4 losers with the first lot, this way you manage to make constant small gains while waiting for the big second lot gain to happen.
also when the first lot hit the target, what to do with the stop of the second lot ? in this simulation I moved it at BE +1tick, if I don't do this way, I must be right more than 6 times over 10, but is it correct? shouldn't I move the stop at BE only to a point where I know my trade will be invalidatedâ¦.?
2 possible scenarios:
this scenario must have: stop 10 ticks - first target 24 ticks
2 contracts- stop $50 for each contract
2 stops = $100 + $10(commissions) + $10(slippage) = $120 (loss)
lot.1 target $130 / lot.2 stop at break even +1 = $120 (gain)
5 Winners - 5 Losers = 0
6 Winners - 4 Losers = 240
7 Winners - 3 Losers = 480
8 Winners - 2 Losers = 720
9 Winners - 1 Losers = 960
--------------------------------------------------------------
this scenario must have: stop 10 ticks - first target 18 ticks
3 contracts- stop $50 for each contract
3 stops = $150 + 15(commissions) + 15(slippage) = $180 (loss)
lot.1 (2 contracts) target $195 / lot.2 stop at break even +1 = $180 (gain)
5 Winners - 5 Losers = 0
6 Winners - 4 Losers = 360
7 Winners - 3 Losers = 720
8 Winners - 2 Losers = 1080
9 Winners - 1 Losers = 1440
you see with the second scenario I must have a little less good, but the stops will be hard to take, and it will be very hard to re-enter a position if your stops are hit and maybe you want to try again a second time...
if you use a multiple lots strategy basically to take small profits with the first lot, and let the profits run with the remaining lots, wouldn't be better to trade only with 1 lot trying keep losses waiting for the few big winners ???
Also I would like to ask you if you can suggest a filter I can add to my strategy when I enter a trade, as I told you I use convergence of long terms S/R on multiple markets to trade intraday, this because I think that when the price reaches this important S/R can make big moves in intraday, often those points could be the low and the high for the day, a filter could be a signal from an indicator, candles, stop running action and so onâ¦
I usually see how the market react, I mean just see if there is some actions and the market seams to bounce, also I always enter at the market, but I'm planning to enter at limit 2-3 ticks below the price as it often happen that I have to suffer a few ticks of red before going greenâ¦
THIS IS MORE ON MY STRATEGY:
I manually draw trendlines â 50 and 200 SMA and FIBS replacement lines on several correlated markets on MONTHLY â WEEKLY â DAILY charts.
Markets are:
US markets, tradestation symbols: NQ-ES-YM-COMPX-NDX.X-INDU-INX-RUT
EU markets, tradestation symbol: FDAX-DE:$DAX-FESX
I try not to have the same trendlines in the various time frames, but it could happen.
to check all this chart at the same time I have a RADARSCREEN that show me where is the next S/R and the distance on the various chart, a kind of resume.
to have a better view I also have the intersection points of the current candle displayed in horizontal a 5min time frame, to better understand: in a NQ 5 min I have the horizontal lines derived from NQ M-W-D interception point of the current candle.
this are the info I have, and also I use a 1min chart with floor trader pivot and yestreday high-low-close of NQ-ES-YM, this is something I used a lot in the past to lose money, maybe I could delete this, too much info.
it is a lot of work since I have to manually draw all this stuff, and actually I should update every day the daily chart.
RS picture:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3167146
horizontal lines for US picture:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3167147
horizontal lines for EU picture:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3167150
sample of ES monthly chart:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3167151
sample of ES weekly chart:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3167154
sample of ES daily chart:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3167156
MANY THANKS!!!
While this thread is a bit serious, and somewhat disturbing, I will add this personal comment.
***
It might be worth trading on a simulator in the evening, whilst working a regular job during the day.
***
There are plenty of markets open near 24 hours â fx / futures etc, so wherever you are, you could sim trade after work.
Give it say 6 months, and see if you are paper trade profitable.
***
It might be worth trading on a simulator in the evening, whilst working a regular job during the day.
***
There are plenty of markets open near 24 hours â fx / futures etc, so wherever you are, you could sim trade after work.
Give it say 6 months, and see if you are paper trade profitable.