The market reaction is very calm to the news that he wants to use atom rockets or weapons too in case it is required aka he cannot win under other circumstances. That news is not played out in the markets. There is no huge run into USD longs and equity indices market selloff so far. Maybe the market thinks it can be only a bluff ? But so far I have learnt the lesson that Putin is not bluffing at all when he has a chance to realize his plan(s).
Putin Announces ‘Partial Mobilization,’ Stepping Up Ukraine War
- Thread starter vanzandt
- Start date
Can't disagree more. The Ukraine crisis so far has been nothing more than a sideshow for markets. Sure, it will cause a 3-5% move up of the market but I doubt there will be much follow through.
Here is why: persistently high inflation is unrelated to anything Ukraine/Russia. Europe is obviously more affected by this conflict. But all supply chain issues, increasing labor cost, the correction in the housing markets around the world are all unrelated to this conflict. Gimmick tech companies are still way overvalued. The threat of Chinese supremacy and increased aggression won't disappear. Those are all big issues that won't go away in the medium term. China is now posting news of breakthroughs in aviation, weaponry, ai,... On an almost daily basis. There is way more momentum in top tier innovation in China than Europe or North America. None of that points to a peaceful handover of economic supremacy. As with waning imperial power and subsequent angry reactions out of the UK we will not see America hand over control of the world peacefully. There will be military and information conflict if not war. None of that will subside in the absence of the crisis in Ukraine.
Here is why: persistently high inflation is unrelated to anything Ukraine/Russia. Europe is obviously more affected by this conflict. But all supply chain issues, increasing labor cost, the correction in the housing markets around the world are all unrelated to this conflict. Gimmick tech companies are still way overvalued. The threat of Chinese supremacy and increased aggression won't disappear. Those are all big issues that won't go away in the medium term. China is now posting news of breakthroughs in aviation, weaponry, ai,... On an almost daily basis. There is way more momentum in top tier innovation in China than Europe or North America. None of that points to a peaceful handover of economic supremacy. As with waning imperial power and subsequent angry reactions out of the UK we will not see America hand over control of the world peacefully. There will be military and information conflict if not war. None of that will subside in the absence of the crisis in Ukraine.
I'll tell ya what... if news ever breaks that Putin has been assassinated, history will record the greatest one day jump EVER in the markets.
Ya know when you think about it, that's a hell of a bounty on his head really... ripe for the taking.
If a little cabal of Ruskies got together and rounded up a few $100K, they could wait until about 2:30 PM on a Friday, buy calls on the SPY a few dollars out of the money for a penny or two.... and then wax the f'r at 3PM.
It hits the Bloomberg and the next thing ya know... ol' Jeb's a millionaire. Or Ivan is at least.
Maybe one of these Russian bots that seem to love ET so much will read my post.
Imagine that... VZ saves the world.
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Freshly sourced from Fox or CNN? I have zero stake in that conflict but nobody can be so naive as to think that Russia can't mobilize/force many additional hundreds of thousands if not more than a million soldiers. Have you checked the population of Russia lately and observed what Russians are capable of suffering wise?just because some video footage of Russian kids deserting their assigned spots made the rounds does not mean that the country is done.
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It may only be 2 0r 3 percent after the dust settles... but it would be 8% plus for at least an hour.
Gotta start somewhere.