Purely Mechanical Option Trading Part 2

Updated October trades:

10-02-12
SPY OCT 146 Puts
Buy Limit = 2.05
Sell Limit = 2.56 (+25%)
Stop = 1.41
Closed trade on 10/2/2012: +25%
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10-03-12
SPY OCT 144 Call
Buy Limit = 1.74
Sell Limit = 2.24 (+28%)
Stop = 1.21
Closed Trade on 10/3/2012: +28%
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10-05-12
SPY OCT 148 Put
Buy Limit = 1.80
Sell Limit = 1.80 (0%)
Stop = 1.08
Closed trade on 10/5/2012: 0%
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10/9/2012
SPY NOV 146 CALL
BUY LIMIT = 2.05
SELL LIMIT = 2.70
STOP = 1.40 (-32%)
Closed trade on 10/10/2012: -32%
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10-10-12
SPY NOV 145 CALL
BUY LIMIT: 1.78
SELL LIMIT: 2.90 (+62%)
STOP: 1.07
Closed trade on 10/17/2012: +62%
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10-11-12
SPY NOV 144 CALL
BUY LIMIT: 1.98
SELL LIMIT: 3.60 (+81%)
STOP: 1.35
Closed trade on 10/17/2012: +81%
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10-18-12
SPY NOV146 PUT
Buy Limit: 2.06
Sell Limit: changed from 2.68 to 2.58 (+25%)
Stop: 1.24
Closed trade on 10/19/2012: +25%
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10-22-12
SPY 143 Nov Calls
Buy Limit: 2.05
Sell Limit: 2.70
Stop: 1.40 (-32%)
Closed trade on 10-24-2012: -32%
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Currently No trades are Open.
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Summary:
5 wins at +221% option gains
2 losers at -64% option losses
1 breakeven 0%
+157% option gains
net account gain: +15.3% (10% invested per trade)
Win/Loss: 71%


Note to self:
W/L: has been 70-75% since July 2007, so October is average.
Account gain: has roughly averaged 10% per month since July 2007, so October is high, but the month isn't over and I am sure there will be some bad months ahead that will bring the average
in line with normal.


Jeff
 
Quote from jeffalvinson:

How has it been going trading the SPY and Q's ?
Better or worse then individual stock options?
Do you have any kind of trading system developed for the etf's?


Jeff
More...
Truthfully I only tried the Q's and SPY for a short time after some rough losses on individual stock options...not enough trades to say definitively..as for a trading system, just intra day trades using S and R while watching the 5 min chart and looking for a trend..
 
Quote from rfriend73:

Truthfully I only tried the Q's and SPY for a short time after some rough losses on individual stock options...not enough trades to say definitively..as for a trading system, just intra day trades using S and R while watching the 5 min chart and looking for a trend..
More...

Chuck,

When my program doesn't spit out any trades for a few days
(like the past 2 days), I do the same as you and trade the SPY
5 minute chart with Pivot Points.
I scalped a call today (SPY 142C at 12:10pm et) at Support No. 1 (red line on attached chart) and exited at (2:30pm et) the Pivot Point (brown line on attached chart).

Jeff
 

Attachments

Quote from jeffalvinson:

Chuck,

When my program doesn't spit out any trades for a few days
(like the past 2 days), I do the same as you and trade the SPY
5 minute chart with Pivot Points.
I scalped a call today (SPY 142C at 12:10pm et) at Support No. 1 (red line on attached chart) and exited at (2:30pm et) the Pivot Point (brown line on attached chart).

Jeff
More...
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Why not trade the underlying?
Advantage with call or put options intra day in scalping?

cheers
john
 
Quote from Appleseed:

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Why not trade the underlying?
Advantage with call or put options intra day in scalping?

cheers
john
More...


John,

I don't trade stocks anymore. There was a time when I did,
but tax preparation is messy having to itemize each stock's
buy / sell price...dates..etc The most expensive tax prep I ever paid for was the last time I traded stocks (I always use CPA's).
There is no advantage to day trading and swing trading stocks
over options and there is several disadvantages:
Larger Account than options.
Have to use Margins.
Higher tax preparation.
With an options cash only account at tax time you list:
total option purchases
- total option sales
- total commissions
done

Not to mention I can't make 20% on a 2 hour scalp using a stock.

Jeff
 
Hey Jeff, just wondering, what is your worst month since 2007 with the system? Best month? What was max drawdawn given 10% position size? Is the system completely automated or do you manually enter orders?
 
Quote from EliteTraderNYC:

Hey Jeff, just wondering, what is your worst month since 2007 with the system? Best month? What was max drawdawn given 10% position size? Is the system completely automated or do you manually enter orders?
More...

My worst month was +5.13% account gain and my best month
may be happening right now (+15.3%) this October 2012 if I don't catch any losing trades between Oct 29 to Oct 31.
My worst account drawdown at any one point in time with open trades was -6% and that actually happened this month (10-10 & 10-11), which coincidently is my best month so far if Oct 29 to Oct 31 doesn't take a hit.
I usually never have more than 10% of my account in the same
direction, but this month I had 20% total in 2 call trades
(10% X 2).
Many times I have trades going in both directions (calls and puts) at the same time, which counter-balances drawdown.

Semi-Automation:
My trades signal are computer program generated (I can't change them).
My trade parameters (Buy Limit, Sell Limit, & Stop) are generated from the computer program but I can adjust them as necessary for different market environments.
I manually enter an automated order (IB bracket order for buy limit, sell limit, stop) which is all done automatically after I click transmit.
 
Quote from jeffalvinson:

My worst month was +5.13% account gain and my best month
may be happening right now (+15.3%) this October 2012 if I don't catch any losing trades between Oct 29 to Oct 31.
My worst account drawdown at any one point in time with open trades was -6% and that actually happened this month (10-10 & 10-11), which coincidently is my best month so far if Oct 29 to Oct 31 doesn't take a hit.
I usually never have more than 10% of my account in the same
direction, but this month I had 20% total in 2 call trades
(10% X 2).
Many times I have trades going in both directions (calls and puts) at the same time, which counter-balances drawdown.

Semi-Automation:
My trades signal are computer program generated (I can't change them).
My trade parameters (Buy Limit, Sell Limit, & Stop) are generated from the computer program but I can adjust them as necessary for different market environments.
I manually enter an automated order (IB bracket order for buy limit, sell limit, stop) which is all done automatically after I click transmit.
More...


Jeff,
Thanks for sharing information about your strategy. But the question that comes to mind (and I'm sure you've been asked this before) is how is your strategy any different from a very leveraged version of trading the SPY ETF long/short?

Maybe you're exploiting the way the ATM premium moves differently from the underlying? If so what is that dynamic?
 
Quote from EliteTraderNYC:

Hey Jeff, just wondering, what is your worst month since 2007 with the system? Best month? What was max drawdawn given 10% position size? Is the system completely automated or do you manually enter orders?
More...

EliteTraderNYC,
A friend of mine who reads this thread pointed out that you probably didn't mean "what was my worst drawdown from open trades," but you probably meant "what was my worst drawdown
at anytime in an entire month."
Assuming that's what you meant, the answer to the latter question is different than the question I answered.
My worst drawdown in an entire month was -18.75%, and this
happened to be the month that only generated +5%.

Jeff
 
Quote from R1234:

Jeff,
Thanks for sharing information about your strategy. But the question that comes to mind (and I'm sure you've been asked this before) is how is your strategy any different from a very leveraged version of trading the SPY ETF long/short?

Maybe you're exploiting the way the ATM premium moves differently from the underlying? If so what is that dynamic?
More...

There are two keys to the dynamic:
1: Identify mathematical mini-trends (usually 3-9 days but exceptions can be longer or short), by measuring price gains or
losses in call and put options and then applying those price gains
or price losses to mathematical formula's that have proven over time, can identify mini-trends or trend reversals with reasonable accuracy.

2: There is an exploitation of premium that somewhat differs from
the underlying:
Normally (but not always) when the trade program says to buy calls, if the program was 100% correct about direction, it would simply tell me to buy the next opening price on the call options
and sell them at a reasonable profit.
But, instead it usually (but not always) tells me to buy the calls
-15% to -28% under the closing price of the calls.
So in essence the program is hoping the markets first go the wrong way so the reduced priced calls fill before rising the correct
direction and producing a profit.
So your right, the program is exploiting the way the ATM premium moves differently from the underlying.
Good observation.

Your also somewhat correct about another point you made.
Sometimes (but not always) the program is trying to buy calls and puts on the same day. This isn't any different from a very leveraged version of trading the SPY ETF long/short.
The only slight difference might be this:
when the program is trying to buy calls and puts on the same day, its looking for healthy sized entry price discounts with respect to the closing price of the options. That means they are bought at opposite ends of the spectrum of the intra-day price
movement.


Jeff
 
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