puddles 2011 trade journal (formerly a 70k bet..)

had a WFC short prior to the 10am #s that i scaled out of, would have been an easy winner with the awful #s

10:11

SHORT RIMM 40.9
STOP 41.01
TGT 40.68

out +0.22
 
You seem to be a statisticaly oriented person, so I have to ask you, have you studied the statistics of your afternoon entries vs your morning entries? In other words, are you winning ~44% of your afternoon trades, similar to your morning trades?

+-*/ Math_Wiz
 
Quote from Math_Wiz:

You seem to be a statisticaly oriented person, so I have to ask you, have you studied the statistics of your afternoon entries vs your morning entries? In other words, are you winning ~44% of your afternoon trades, similar to your morning trades?

+-*/ Math_Wiz
More...

for 2011 only

9:30-10: 42%
10-11: 36%
11-2: 34%
2-4: 47%

i've really slowed down my trading between 10-11 and try to make sure i only take the best setups to improve my winrate.

i avoid 11-2 unless a trade jumps off the screen at me (unlikely during summer).

i used to be near 30% on my 9:30-10am trades in mid 2010 until i tweaked my strategy. i weigh certain factors a lot heavily at certain points during the day.
 
<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110601/spy.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110601/rimm.png">

10:11

SHORT RIMM 40.9
STOP 41.01
TGT 40.68

- 10am #s bad
- RIMM at 52w low
- pretty aggressive entry, tight LH under round #
- out +0.22

I was busy most of the afternoon where money apparently was falling from the sky if you had shares of anything to short..

http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2011/06/01/2011-06-01-trades/
 
<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110602/spy.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110602/fdo.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110602/mon.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110602/coh.png">

10:02

SHORT FDO 53.51
STOP 53.67
STOP TGT 53.19

- gap down vs SPY gap up
- gap and crap from the open
- tight LH at the lows, shorting what I believed were bad 10am #s
- should have moved to a b/e stop
- out -0.19

10:11

LONG MON 70.01
STOP 69.8
TGT 70.43

- Marginally stronger than the open
- as soon as I entered i said in chat "this is a bad entry". i should have punched it out
- should have waited for a hold over the level
- out -0.25

10:28

SHORT COH 61.79
STOP 62.01
TGT 62.35

- By 10:25 COH was retesting it's lows
- SPY was weak but only at the middle of it's range
- short LOD looking for a market breakdown
- out -0.25

http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2011/06/02/2011-06-02-trades/
 
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