puddles 2011 trade journal (formerly a 70k bet..)

Quote from puddles:

9:36

SHORT BP 45.19
STOP 45.29
TGT 45.00

out -0.10

9:45

LONG MCK 74.42
STOP 74.31
TGT 74.64

out -0.12
More...

I reviewed your trades :cool: , coz i hate my job.

BP trade was a good trade, good STOp and entry.
MCK seemed to be lil Late entry, however depending on the time frame. on 5 minutes it looks like you entered right when it STARTED to pull back. may be you should have waited a lil bit.

Let me know what time frame you trade in.
 
Quote from puddles:

out +0.19
More...

WHY???? its still heading lower.on over 2X vol.


Sorry feels like i am stalking you.
This is what happens when you can't trade at work.

:D
 
<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110110/spy.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110110/bp.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110110/mck.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110110/lll.png">

<img src="http://puddles.humanfund.ca/20110110/arun.png">

9:36

SHORT BP 45.19
STOP 45.29
TGT 45.00

- Gap down, tight lower high
- Nothing special about this vs SPY
- out -0.10

9:45

LONG MCK 74.42
STOP 74.31
TGT 74.64

- MCK on daily long watch list
- Huge strength from the open
- Tight higher low
- out -0.12
- little too tight a stop for the spread here, wouldn't have worked regardless of any stop size.

10:50

SHORT LLL 76.87
STOP 76.10
TGT 76.41

- LLL on extended list
- LLL makes new lows while SPY ranging at the highs
- Short the lower high
- out +0.43

13:36

SHORT LLL 75.89
STOP 76.01
TGT 75.68

- Ranging at the lows still, holding under 76.00
- Short the lower high, stop over round #
- out +0.19

13:38

LONG ARUN 24.46
STOP 24.35
TGT 24.68

- Strong all day, big run up
- Long the tight higher low looking for continuation
- out +0.21

http://puddles.humanfund.ca/wp/2011/01/10/2011-01-10-trades/
 
Hey Puddles, seems like you're moving along well into 2011. Would I be correct in saying that you have a 2:1 strategy, similar to Geez?. Also, how do you determine the trades that you choose and its entry point? It would be interesting to see how one can come up on top despite having only half the trades as winners.

Good luck and I will be following your journal.
 
Quote from Sam Morgan:

Hey Puddles, seems like you're moving along well into 2011. Would I be correct in saying that you have a 2:1 strategy, similar to Geez?. Also, how do you determine the trades that you choose and its entry point? It would be interesting to see how one can come up on top despite having only half the trades as winners.

Good luck and I will be following your journal.
More...

correct. you can tell just by looking at the entry/stop/tgt's i post. tgt should be 2x as far away from the entry than the stop.

i choose entries based on a variety of factors. my scanner gives me a good shortlist of longs/shorts at the close of every 5 min bar. from there i look at daily and intraday of each stock as well as SPY.

it's not that interesting how you can come out on top winning 50%, it's just math. :) at 2:1 you can get away with winning less than 40% and still come out ahead.
 
Quote from puddles:

it's not that interesting how you can come out on top winning 50%, it's just math :)
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Lol. Ill take that with all the humor I can muster up :)


At 2:1 you can get away with winning less than 40% and still come out ahead.
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This is something I have always wondered. Let's say your limit was $21.00, you hit the price and it's a good day, so it never comes back to see that $21.00. Why wouldn't you put your new stop at $21.00 and trail it as far as it takes you.

This was just a thought, as I know you have a system set and follow it with through discipline. I do admire your strength to follow what you have planned.
More...
 
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