PTON

mt2rules

mt2rules

PTON is set to report earnings on Wednesday after the close.

Their first earnings report was not well received by the market even though revenue doubled YoY. Then they had the big commercial fiasco in December.

Any thoughts on whether the upcoming earnings will be viewed positively or negatively and what the long-term outlook for the company is?
 
UnderlyingQuarter
Consensus EPS
Consensus Revenue
Currency
DateWhen Announced
Implied Move*
Avg 1-Week
Move**
Accounts
PTONQ2 '20
-0.36
421.4 M
USD 05-FEB-2020AfterClose
+/-16.1% -0.6%

This stock is behaving a bit like Tesla at the moment. For no reason it is going up, but imo fundamentals are not giving a justification for this move. I have a short position, but yesterday I wrote some puts to make the position a bit less volatile.
 
Connected Fitness Subscribers grew 96% to 712,005; total Members grew to over 2.0 million • Total revenue grew 77% to $466.3 million • Engagement remained strong; our Connected Fitness Subscribers worked out over 24.3 million times with us in Q2 and averaged 12.6 Monthly Workouts per Connected Fitness Subscriber, versus 9.7 in the same period last year • High engagement drove low Average Net Monthly Connected Fitness Churn of 0.74%; 12-month retention rate was 93% • Gross margin remained steady at 42.3%; Connected Fitness Gross Margin was 40.5%, Subscription Gross Margin was 58.0%, and Subscription Contribution Margin was 64.4% • Net Loss of $(55.4) million and Adjusted EBITDA of $(28.4) million representing an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of (6.1)% • We are raising full year guidance for FY 2020 – 920,000 to 930,000 ending Connected Fitness Subscribers, 81% growth at midpoint – $1.53 billion to $1.55 billion total revenue, 68% growth at midpoint


Stock down 15% after hours......
 
Peloton stock falls 10% after earnings, weak third-quarter revenue guidance
Published: Feb 5, 2020 4:43 p.m. ET



Fitness company reports net loss of $55.4 million, though revenue rose to $466.3 million

MW-HM053_Peloto_20190624150045_ZH.jpg
Bloomberg
Short-seller Citron research set a $5 price target on the stock.
By

MAXA. CHERNEY
REPORTER

Peloton Interactive Inc. fell more than 10% in extended trading after the company beat consensus estimates but issued revenue guidance that was below fiscal third-quarter expectations.

Peloton PTON, -2.30% reported a fiscal second-quarter net loss of $55.4 million, or 20 cents a share, versus a loss of $55.1 million in the year-ago period.

Revenue rose to $466.3 million from $262.9 million a year ago.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet had estimated a loss of 34 cents a share on revenue of $423.7 million. For the fiscal third quarter, analysts model a loss of 20 cents a share on revenue of $494 million.

Peloton said that it expects fiscal third-quarter revenue of $470 million to $480 million and full-year revenue of $1.53 billion to $1.55 billion.

Wall Street expects full-year revenue of $1.49 billion.


See also: Peloton says it’s ‘disappointed’ by how its viral ad was ‘misinterpreted’

Peloton in December released a 30-second ad that was criticized as “sexist” and “dystopian,” causing the stock to call roughly 9% after backlash to the spot spread across the internet.

Despite outrage over the ad, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Youssef Squali wrote in a note to clients Monday that “if anything, this has raised more awareness around the brand and the offering.” Squali cited Google search interest, which reached its highest level since 2004 around the period the commercial first appeared.

Short-seller Citron Research penned a December report about Peloton, setting a $5 price target and arguing that the company’s strategy is flawed and its hardware isn’t competitive. Citron said in the report that the company didn’t deserve the premium multiple it traded at.

Don’t miss: Peloton shares could be headed to $5, short-seller Citron Research says

Peloton stock has gained 43% in the past three months, as the S&P 500 index SPX, +1.13% rose 7.3% in that time.
 
This stock is fun to trade, but also difficult to trade. To borrow the shares you pay up to 60%, so often I try to sell deep in the money options. Those options are almost every time excersised at the end of the day. Anyway, I am net short, but I also wrote half of the position with at the money put options which are doing an enormous premium, to give some protection against an upswing which is always possible.
 
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