Psychologist beats mathematicians - MUST READ

Quote from Thunderdog:

Is there perhaps an indicator I can use to interpret Jack's posts?
:confused:

Just sit back, blur your eyes and try to read every other word in his post. The cryptic message will appear! It's actually a pretty good reading when you are stoned. Makes you brain go in all the directions simultaneously, and of, course, you always forget what you were reading about in the beginning! Perfect! I actually enjoy his posts immensely!
 
But there are members here at ET who claim to be able to fully interpret Jack's offerings. I can only surmise that reading market action is child's play by comparison. Imagine the wealth that they must have already accumulated, trading in surreal time.
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

But there are members here at ET who claim to be able to fully interpret Jack's offerings. I can only surmise that reading market action is child's play by comparison. Imagine the wealth that they must have already accumulated, trading in surreal time.

I understand. But being a psychologist my self Jack's posts offer me the richest material one could possibly ask for. I actually saved them all on my computer. It's simply fascinating and immensely entertaining! The human mind is so multidimensional and infinitely complex. Having a chance to glimpse at an unusual psycho is a thrill to me. :cool:
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

Is there perhaps an indicator I can use to interpret Jack's posts?
:confused:
Yes.
It is a very well known indicator which I would like you to use.
Its called your brain.:)
 
Quote from MAESTRO:
Just sit back, blur your eyes and try to read every other word in his post. The cryptic message will appear! It's actually a pretty good reading when you are stoned. Makes you brain go in all the directions simultaneously, and of, course, you always forget what you were reading about in the beginning! Perfect! I actually enjoy his posts immensely!
This should help if you don't already know. I am quoting theory which "ascribes learning to the strengthening of existing synapses. It is thought that the developing brain overproduces synapses early in life. Subsequently experience, by activating certain nerve cells repeatedly and ignoring others, determines which synapses become mature and stable and which ones wither away in a process of synaptic pruning. Over time, this process leaves us with only highly functional synapses. Learning and memory are thought to result when repeated stimulation of sets of neurons causes the communication across synapses to be strengthened, a condition called long-term potentiation."
Derived from the February issue of Mind, Mood and Memory, a newsletter from Massachusetts General Hospital.
 
Quote from Champion:

Yes.
It is a very well known indicator which I would like you to use.
Its called your brain.:)
As a matter of course, the first step my brain takes is to separate the wheat from the chaff. In so doing, it helps to cut down on nonsensical clutter. On the plus side, I surmise that you must get a disproportionate amount of fiber in your diet.
:)
 
...One such phenomenon is the anchoring effect, a problem endemic to any numerical rating scheme. If a customer watches three movies in a row that merit four stars — say, the Star Wars trilogy — and then sees one that's a bit better — say, Blade Runner — they'll likely give the last movie five stars. But if they started the week with one-star stinkers like the Star Wars prequels, Blade Runner might get only a 4 or even a 3. Anchoring suggests that rating systems need to take account of inertia — a user who has recently given a lot of above-average ratings is likely to continue to do so. Potter finds precisely this phenomenon in the Netflix data; and by being aware of it, he's able to account for its biasing effects and thus more accurately pin down users' true tastes...
Note that we see "anchoring" in the markets all the time. For example, when a market takes a dump, but then recuperates fast, the value of the calls don't catch up as fast as they "should". Is that a mathematical response, or a psychological one?

nitro
 
Quote from bespoke:

Very cool. Bellkor is much like me I guess. Psychologist with a math/programming background. Funny thing is, my most profitable trading strategy is based on a model I did for my thesis a couple of years ago. Signal processing and bayesian learning for mate selection. Who ever knew what you did in school could be applied to trading :D

It's importation to step back and really look at this. Predicting Netflix preferences is in essence a one to one relationship: One person and their taste in movies.

A given market in each moment reflects the "taste" of many, many thousands of investors.

The two are very different logically and statically.

Now if you wanted to predict the investing decision of individual investors then the article has some relevance but I can't see the value. Otherwise it really doesn’t apply at all.

Sometimes I think people post and respond to stuff on ET just to talk, even when the conversation is unrelated to the market or just plain illogical.
 
Quote from Jerry030:

It's importation to step back and really look at this. Predicting Netflix preferences is in essence a one to one relationship: One person and their taste in movies.

A given market in each moment reflects the "taste" of many, many thousands of investors.

The two are very different logically and statically.

Now if you wanted to predict the investing decision of individual investors then the article has some relevance but I can't see the value. Otherwise it really doesn’t apply at all.

Sometimes I think people post and respond to stuff on ET just to talk, even when the conversation is unrelated to the market or just plain illogical.

I said his background was similar to mine. Nowhere in my post did I say what he was doing with NetFlix has anything to do with my trading strategies. Wake up buddy.
 
Quote from bespoke:

I said his background was similar to mine. Nowhere in my post did I say what he was doing with NetFlix has anything to do with my trading strategies. Wake up buddy.

Sorry if I picked on your comment when mine were directed at the entire topic.

What's the point of extended discussion of something so unrelated to the market?

Why not post and discuss research that is relevant as there is a lot of it?
 
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