Prudential shutters TA dept and......

[volkl151]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Well, it's comforting to know that your newsletter is helping you.

Kidding aside, if your letter touches on fundamentals and you are good at what you do, then your newsletter may have some value. However, if your newsletter is only TA, then you may well be doing a disservice to your subscribers. Different people trade differently. Applied TA is context-specific. People who cannot at least do their own TA should not be trading if their method has any basis in TA. Just my opinion.

So, are you then saying it's acceptable for a trader to trade fundamentally using another's research when they have no understanding of fundamentals? I think a person trading without knowledge of either TA for FA are doomed from the start.

At least the new trader is taking my trade ideas rather than buying Euros when the green light tells them to do so.

I don't think I'm doing them a diservice at all.


Continuing with this point, I believe that 1 trader our of 100k has the ability to trade this FX markets purely based on fundamentals. Cable could move 150 points based on pure market noise against the fundamental climate in an instant and knock all traders on board out of the market. Fundamentals are so priced into this market it's silly.

The smartest guys in the whole world with billions in buying power had the data weeks before we did. WE have no shot playing at their table.

Thank god for charts.


(Haha,,,I'll bet I get roasted for this one)

 

[EPrado]

Quote from hcour:

Sorry, I don't mean to be argumentative. Ok, yes I do. We're on the same "side", but I consider myself a devout member of the "Church of Whatever Works - for You". Be it Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, or FA & TA. There seem to be these consistent prejudices among a great majority of traders regarding one or the other. Just as w/in TA there are prejudices against different kinds of TA - Elliiot Wave seems especially disdained, especially on this site. This may or may not be for good reason, but I don't think there is conclusive evidence one way or the other. Certainly there must be traders who have learned to use it successfuly. Just as FA must work for others.

And, again apologies for disagreeing w/a fellow, but TA, pure TA, always works, always has, always will, always should. If one accepts as fact that a chart reveals the struggle, balances and imbalances, of supply and demand in an auction market, how could it be otherwise? The law of supply and demand is immutable. The quality of players and the quantity of quality
players may change, but an auction market is always gonna be an auction market.

H

The church of whatever works for you. LOL....Excellent....never heard that one...kinda strange because i am also a member.

 

[hcour]

TA is a great tool. But like you said..is only part of the formula. The more weapons in your arsenal, the better trader you will be. If you have 4-5 tools and they all say go long, then go for it. I have had times where charts said one thing, but fundamentals said another, and i bypassed the trade.....and it saved my azz.

Agreed. But I was actually referring to the specifics of taking and managing a position, the actual trading aspect - entry, pt, stop-loss, trailing stops, risk/reward, money management, and the psychology of it as well.

H

 

[Bsulli]

Well if nothing else Pru lost a great comedian. I heard Ralph speak in Dallas last month and he was very funny to listen to. Has great audience attention skills.

Bsulli

 

[EPrado]

Quote from volkl151:

So, are you then saying it's acceptable for a trader to trade fundamentally using another's research when they have no understanding of fundamentals? I think a person trading without knowledge of either TA for FA are doomed from the start.

At least the new trader is taking my trade ideas rather than buying Euros when the green light tells them to do so.

I don't think I'm doing them a diservice at all.


Continuing with this point, I believe that 1 trader our of 100k has the ability to trade this FX markets purely based on fundamentals. Cable could move 150 points based on pure market noise against the fundamental climate in an instant and knock all traders on board out of the market. Fundamentals are so priced into this market it's silly.

The smartest guys in the whole world with billions in buying power had the data weeks before we did. WE have no shot playing at their table.

Thank god for charts.


(Haha,,,I'll bet I get roasted for this one)

That damn green light. I saw it last month in the euro. OUCH.

A trader with NO knowledge of TA or fundamnetals isnt doomed. No sir. Their account will implode. Doomed isnt a strong enough word.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from hcour:



And, again apologies for disagreeing w/a fellow, but TA, pure TA, always works, always has, always will, always should. If one accepts as fact that a chart reveals the struggle, balances and imbalances, of supply and demand in an auction market, how could it be otherwise? The law of supply and demand is immutable. The quality of players and the quantity of quality players may change, but an auction market is always gonna be an auction market.

H

interesting post. i dont believe there is prejudice against TA. simply, these firms are FINALLY realizing that TA is untestable, unquantifiable, and only works in the past when its too late.

surfer

 

[QQQShort]

Quote from hcour:

... I consider myself a devout member of the "Church of Whatever Works - for You" ...

H

Agreed.

Numerous paths lead to success, but we must each find our own.

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from volkl151:

So, are you then saying it's acceptable for a trader to trade fundamentally using another's research when they have no understanding of fundamentals? I think a person trading without knowledge of either TA for FA are doomed from the start.

At least the new trader is taking my trade ideas rather than buying Euros when the green light tells them to do so.

I don't think I'm doing them a diservice at all.


Continuing with this point, I believe that 1 trader our of 100k has the ability to trade this FX markets purely based on fundamentals. Cable could move 150 points based on pure market noise against the fundamental climate in an instant and knock all traders on board out of the market. Fundamentals are so priced into this market it's silly.

The smartest guys in the whole world with billions in buying power had the data weeks before we did. WE have no shot playing at their table.

Thank god for charts.


(Haha,,,I'll bet I get roasted for this one)

You miss the point. I only trade ES intraday and do not use fundamentals at all. However, I would not necessarily discount the additional use of fundamentals for FX trades of a longer duration. What I am saying is that TA is a closed set and is self-contained. If you use it and cannot see it for yourself then you are screwed. However, if your trading has any fundamental basis at all, then there are always additional outside variables that can play a role in your decision making, and other people's input can potentially (albeit not necessarily) have some value in this regard.

I'm rather surprised that I should have to explain this to a newsletter writer.

 

[hcour]

interesting post. i dont believe there is prejudice against TA. simply, these firms are FINALLY realizing that TA is untestable, unquantifiable, and only works in the past when its too late.

Folks who try to "test" and "quantify" TA show their own ignorance of what most successful traders actually do, which is discretionary TA. In baseball, when 2 players are on first and second, w/one out in the bottom of the 7th, and you're trailing by 2 runs and the 5th position batter in the rotation is up w/2 balls and 1 strike, you have a specific set of circumstances that dicate a certain strategy. But that's just the mechanical side of the equation, there are myriad other realtime factors and variations that will influence your decisions, these cannot be quantified. To do so is to deny the brilliance and humanity of baseball. Otherwise it could be played by robots.

Same for trading.

H

 

[marketsurfer]

ok, H. I am certainly not trying to disparage the art of TA and will grant that some people are highly skilled in this arena. however, i prefer to avoid highly subjective tactics and believe they have NO place with large money management firms. when tested TA does not work--pure and simple--this does not mean that there are not traders who can use it succesfully.

best,

surfer