Even richer if you can explain why it dropped 35 points immediately after that. You don't have to explain it as I don't think there are any reliable explanations even by the analysts after the fact. You just have to be nimble enough to see it as a developing trend worth betting on.
Prove to me that Technical Analysis Works.
- Thread starter TazTheLaz
- Start date
Trading the market, especially daily/intraday, is part art, part science. Things can deviate in varying degrees seemingly not logically. I've emphasized that before, many times.
But that's not a problem.
A trader just has to establish a reasonable, general, market hypothesis before the opening bell....and wait patiently to strike, to place that trade. Likewise for closing the trade. A trader needs to view things constantly, dynamically, both on a micro scale, and macro scale within the overall day.
There's much more to it than what I'm letting on here, though. I make it sound so simplistic like I'm trading on just basic support/resistance levels. God and the Devil are in the details.
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First Point -- I said MacBook was right when he was talking about options. Sorry, no compliment yet.
Second Point. You gotta come down to earth a bit here. Even mentioning the possibility of trading 100 ES contracts shows that you are not grounded here. You would need a minimum of a $10 Million account to trade 100 ES contracts and only then if you have a long term proven performance. ES dropped 35 points in a half an hour this afternoon. That is $175,000 on 100 contracts. That would be a huge loss even on that size account.
Assuming you learn to trade profitably you need to get a sense of weekly compounding using a spreadsheet. You will find you do not have to trade big to let the numbers do their work to achieve your goals.
Third Point. IF and it is a big IF -- you can directionally trade the ES Futures then the one click ease of getting in and out is to your advantage. SPX is taxed like futures so that is a plus and there is limited risk with each trade. The spread is wider than I would like and if you try to get the midpoint of the spread, the trade can get away from you if the market is moving.
SPX has daily expirations so you have to get a feel for the evaporation of your time value throughout the day. MacBook has a good thing going using SPX to get the major move in the market day. You could buy 10 SPX options (depending on your strike price) early in the day for $7,500 or so and get a 3x move or more on it.
What about Moses?
Sorry, just couldn't resist that.Since that works for you then who am I to argue with it, but I find that my trading suffers when I have a bias on what I expect it to do.
Ahhh, but that's the Billion dollar question everyone wants to know....the Future~~~
Some people, traders, can be Waaaaaaaay off, others can be mildly off or average, and some can be relatively precise. and a select few can be really precise.
It's all about your understanding, approach, process, expectations, wisdom and refinement.
Knowing the Future~~~ imagine, the possibilities,
The Holy Grail is knowing,
What about Moses?
Moses, I like Moses and the Jewish.
You should buy a Shofar....and pray and chant for money while speaking into it. And maybe you'll be successful like me one day in the market,
Like I said MacBook, you are still a bit of a mystery to me. This bit about "Knowing the Future" is a bit mystic. Trading is all about analyzing the present to see if you can determine an edge in predicting the direction of prices in the near term. This analyzing the present is what all of us traders do with the potential exception of you.
Moses, I like Moses and the Jewish.
You should buy a Shofar....and pray and chant for money while speaking into it. And maybe you'll be successful like me one day in the market,
I understand the shofar and how it is used in the Feast Celebrations but "chanting into it for money"......... Are you serious?
You don't need to analyze the present, or over analyze it.
A trader should do less thinking, and just simply watching the chart unfold like a museum patron would stare at an art piece on the wall.
Near term, what does that mean.....sounds like a scalping term. Scalping is stupid.
A trader should understand, realize, and place just one trade in the day....capture that one, big, main, obvious move.
Assuming a trader has established a strong, accurate, hypothesis and has conviction in it....they just need to wait, watch and see it unfold and place that trade accordingly. And live happily ever after with two Belgian Malinois dogs.
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