Prove to me that Technical Analysis Works.

Illini Trader said:
Still trying to figure you out MacBook,
About the time I feel like mentally writing you off, (I never block anyone) you say something that makes a lot of sense.
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What's there to figure out about me? I write what I say, and say what I write. Nothing mysterious about that. Rather plain and clear cut.

Trading is like Politics here. If you don't trade exactly what someone else trades, in the same fashion that they do.....then you are so wrong, dumb and false.
Apparently, futures is the main, cool, game here. Or maybe automated futures.

I kind of preach about S&P options daily/intraday a lot. Directional buyer. But most people find that very hard to nail down, risky and dumb and gambley. I...ughh... disagree.
 
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Illini Trader said:
Fundamentals are for investors, TA is for Traders. It is the only way to navigate swing trading and intraday trading. Just Curious -- What would it take for you to come into agreement that TA works?
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Interesting post, someone going straight to the point. Thank you.

TA is quite extensive in terms of content, you could include pretty much everything related to trading inside TA, up to a point that even TA experts don't agree on what should be included or not.

But to keep things simple as a start, let's pick an indicator that would signal an entry. For that indicator I would like to see its performance over a number of markets and periods, let's say 1000 attempts as an example.

I can actually help to run something automated if you come with a script, so we can see it for real.
 
SimpleML, MacBook is right. If you want to get a lot of money quickly and can identify good moves in ES then options on SPX is the way to go. This is a copy of a post I made in another thread that shows the movements in SPX options at various turning points in the trading day. The post is simply to show the option price movement and not to imply that I made these trades. Keep in mind that SPX has been call the "Widow Maker" by some. The action is on Friday, Aug 5th so you can check the ES or SPX chart and see the option movement with the chart price.


SPX Option Chains taken from TOS "Ondemand" feature at
Central Time Zone Friday, Aug 5th.
8:33
9:15
10:30
12:15
2:15
2:57

 
Illini Trader said:
SimpleML, MacBook is right. If you want to get a lot of money quickly and can identify good moves in ES then options on SPX is the way to go. This is a copy of a post I made in another thread that shows the movements in SPX options at various turning points in the trading day. The post is simply to show the option price movement and not to imply that I made these trades. Keep in mind that SPX has been call the "Widow Maker" by some. The action is on Friday, Aug 5th so you can check the ES or SPX chart and see the option movement with the chart price.


SPX Option Chains taken from TOS "Ondemand" feature at
Central Time Zone Friday, Aug 5th.
8:33
9:15
10:30
12:15
2:15
2:57

More...

Option trading is hardly the posterchild of simplicity. It's more like a guarantee to cause a mental melt-down.
 
Illini Trader said:
SimpleML, MacBook is right. If you want to get a lot of money quickly and can identify good moves in ES then options on SPX is the way to go. This is a copy of a post I made in another thread that shows the movements in SPX options at various turning points in the trading day. The post is simply to show the option price movement and not to imply that I made these trades. Keep in mind that SPX has been call the "Widow Maker" by some. The action is on Friday, Aug 5th so you can check the ES or SPX chart and see the option movement with the chart price.


SPX Option Chains taken from TOS "Ondemand" feature at
Central Time Zone Friday, Aug 5th.
8:33
9:15
10:30
12:15
2:15
2:57

More...

I was looking for something way simpler to prove my point, but we can work with that, no problem.
Look at your data and your analysis and you will see the same pattern in every TA discussion. You are over-fitting a result knowing the data in advance.

Every time I ask for a proof that TA works I get a reply with a chart, some sort of indicator and a single example that it worked that specific day. But let's run it during the rest of the year, you don't have any data for that. Let's make a plan over a technique that we can run over multiple days.

Would you be able to describe a technique that we can run on the options markets for that symbol over a 1000 times? We need a lot more attempts than one single day to prove that a technique works.
 
MacBookProHo said:
What's there to figure out about me? I write what I say, and say what I write. Nothing mysterious about that. Rather plain and clear cut.

Trading is like Politics here. If you don't trade exactly what someone else trades, in the same fashion that they do.....then you are so wrong, dumb and false.
Apparently, futures is the main, cool, game here. Or maybe automated futures.

I kind of preach about S&P options daily/intraday a lot. Directional buyer. But most people find that very hard to nail down, risky and dumb and gambley. I...ughh... disagree.
More...

I guess my post #409 in this thread kinda explains a little of the mystery surrounding you. Also, I did not get your first day and just about your first post you really took off on Overnight when you had did not have the history at ET to know much about him.

Also your post #382 you exhibited a bit what of the ("wrong, dumb and false" comment that you use in this post) when you were being critical of a moving average system. MV can be effective if you know which ones to use and what kind of charts to apply them to, and most of all the discipline to stick to your guns when you get a bar to two against you.

I agree with you on intraday options only I prefer them on stocks with weekly expirations.
 
Sprout said:
Option trading is hardly the posterchild of simplicity. It's more like a guarantee to cause a mental melt-down.
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I can certainly see why you would say that. It is such a highly leveraged instrument that you have to carefully choose your "delta" and have strict unbreakable rules on how much capital to employ at one time.
 
Sprout said:
Option trading is hardly the posterchild of simplicity

It's more like a guarantee to cause a mental melt-down
More...

I never said trading options on the SPX daily/intraday was going to be easy, instant, and wonderful and fabulous for everyone.

SimpleMeLike said he wanted to get rich fast.
To reply to that....the best way is to trade options daily. Assuming, of course, the trader has Great, excellent, expert, Timing...and understanding and trade management. But very, very few people truly have those characteristics.

However, if someone knows the future reasonably well for the day ahead....they can make serious money with options.
And that's one of the ways to get rich fast in the market.

Options in the right hands is Plutonium. A trader can do serious damage in the market with options, if they have excellent timing or knows the future reasonably well with a high degree of accuracy,

Today, for example, if you can explain why the market went up around 10:50 to 2:25....you will be rich,
plutonium2.jpg

plutonium.jpg
 
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Illini Trader said:
SimpleML, MacBook is right.
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Hello Illini Trader,

Thanks for the compliment. What am I right about?

I do not trade options, I trade ES futures. My plan is to grow my account to $500,000 in the next 6 to 12 months by scaling from 1 ES contract to 100 ES contract within 6 to 12 months. I want to be rich very fast and structured.

I never trade options before. Can options meet my goal faster by trading the ES futures market?
 
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