Prove to me that Technical Analysis Works.

[smallfil]

Well I'll be damned. Pack it up technical traders, what we've been doing all this time hasn't been working. I don't know where all the money came from or why every chart keeps obeying these funky lines and patterns, but I suppose I'll need to try something new now.

The only relevant thing is monies going to your pockets. People can believe what they want to believe.

 

[deaddog]

I am not holding any stocks at the moment, because I do not believe there is any good opportunity. However, I am interested in buying Magna, Petrobras, and Hamilton Lane in the future.

Magna makes consoles, and other parts for cars. They also do contract car building (similar to Foxconn). My research concludes the intrinsic value is above the quoted price, because the company is in a VERY stable financial position, has growth potential but has seen a large selloff.

Petrobras is an oil company run by the Brazilian government. It is in a stable financial position, has a VERY good dividend. Intrinsic value is above the quoted price, solely because of the dividend. The company has high growth potential, and there is nothing to suggest that it will fail.

Hamilton Lane is a private equity and fund company. It is very well run, has future growth potential, and a decent dividend. My adjusted-DCF formula values shares around $110-140, which would double my money.

The companies do have some insider selling, however I do not believe management has lost confidence in them.

What catalyst makes these stocks buyable. What change in fundamentals would cause you to start a position?

PBR doesn't seem to have earnings. I would think a dividend not covered by earnings would be suspect, especially a high dividend.

 

[Illini Trader]

You want proof that TA works. How's this for an example. Buy or Hold Apple as long as it is above its 200 Day Exponential Moving Average. Just think how much money that TA strategy has made people over the last 15 years. Sure beats scouring the internet for how many Iphones are going to be sold next quarter and is there still a strong market for the MAC. Can you ever get a handle on ALL the Fundamentals that you need to know?

 

[TazTheLaz]

You want proof that TA works. How's this for an example. Buy or Hold Apple as long as it is above its 200 Day Exponential Moving Average. Just think how much money that TA strategy has made people over the last 15 years. Sure beats scouring the internet for how many Iphones are going to be sold next quarter and is there still a strong market for the MAC. Can you ever get a handle on ALL the Fundamentals that you need to know?

Debt to equity, ROE, DCF and PE ratios are all I look at. I barely even look at forecasts. Plus, buy-and hold would have a nearly identical return.

 

[Illini Trader]

And you do not know how the market is going to react to the earnings report. You can be right that AAPL exceeded projections by 10% but the market expected 20%. Price action kills Fundamentals as you not only have to know what the fundamentals are as they change but how the market is going to interpret those fundamentals.

 

[Illini Trader]

Debt to equity, ROE, DCF and PE ratios are all I look at. I barely even look at forecasts. Plus, buy-and hold would have a nearly identical return.

OK I get that. For a long term investor you need to know fundamentals to have confidence in a hold. But most of ET are traders not investors.

Fundamentals have zero effect on what the stock is going to do in the next 60 minutes.

 

[TazTheLaz]

OK I get that. For a long term investor you need to know fundamentals to have confidence in a hold. But most of ET are traders non investors.

So why not hold for the long term? Adjusted for taxes, long term always trumps short term

 

[Illini Trader]

I guess you just don't understand what traders do. They sell short when the market is in a downtrend (both day-traders and swing traders) so a stock can be flat on the year but they can profit by trading the swings.

 

[volpri]

Wonderful analysis. Thanks for sharing. Missing your charts with trades marked up in your journal.

Maybe I will be able to make some posts in my journal next month. Got covid and had to recuperate. Then had to get the ground ready for garden and plant it. Already eating english peas, potatoes, onions, turnips, romaine lettuce, and Kale. Some of my bush green beans are blooming so it won’t be long. Okra is coming along but not bearing yet, as is the corn. Once i get the opinions and potatoes out I am planting some speckled butterbeans. Once the sweet peas are finished in goes some rattlesnake green beans. Tomatoes will soon be ready to eat.

 

[Overnight]

Maybe I will be able to make some posts in my journal next month. Got covid and had to recuperate. Then had to get the ground ready for garden and plant it. Already eating english peas, potatoes, onions, turnips, romaine lettuce, and Kale. Some of my bush green beans are blooming so it won’t be long. Okra is coming along but not bearing yet, as is the corn. Once i get the opinions and potatoes out I am planting some speckled butterbeans. Once the sweet peas are finished in goes some rattlesnake green beans. Tomatoes will soon be ready to eat.

Damn, you have some mutated fast-growing seeds or something? Planting season in New England started only a month ago. Where you located?