Just say technical analysis is hokum but, your technical indicators works. I know it works but, I will not waste my precious time to educate ignorant, lazy slugs who would not do the hard work to learn it for themselves. I have no inclination to help lazy slugs help themselves. You actually, do have to work to become a competent stockchart reader, if you want to learn and use technical analysis. Too many want the easy way out. Too many entitled trolls believe you should share what you know with them.
Prove to me that Technical Analysis Works.
- Thread starter TazTheLaz
- Start date
Just say technical analysis is hokum but, your technical indicators works. I know it works but, I will not waste my precious time to educate ignorant, lazy slugs who would not do the hard work to learn it for themselves. I have no inclination to help lazy slugs help themselves. You actually, do have to work to become a competent stockchart reader, if you want to learn and use technical analysis. Too many want the easy way out. Too many entitled trolls believe you should share what you know with them.
There are two groups of traders responding in this thread for the reason "running 9 pages of comments" as you noted...
One group seems to be emphasizing daytrading/swing trading is profitable while the other group seems to be saying that you can be a profitable trader while using technical analysis...each group would have a different way of verifying such is true.
This has been the way with most of the prior +100 threads here in the TA section by others that have done exactly the same thing in the past...they refuse to explain what would be proof to them.
- Thus, I asked the OP to explain what he means by proving that TA works that would be satisfactory to him/her as proof...no response from the OP...
Oddly, the few that did respond and explain in great detail, some would provide proof and suddenly the OP would move the goal post and then continue requesting additional verification information.
As I've stated earlier, these types of threads are just a game to some people and a lot of traders do not view threads like this very seriously and a lot of traders will not share their TA with an anonymous user name that requests proof.
- In fact, you get clues about this (moving of the goal post) in the OP opening message post when he begins identifying "line on a chart" then he navigates to "TA", and then he uses the phrase "super-rich"...then he circles back to comparing line on a chart to rich investors (not traders) that uses fundamentals and a team of insiders to help make them rich.
Simply, there have been threads like this (many of them) in the past by thread starters with the hidden agenda of trying to gain access to your trade method...your hard work while others solely had the agenda of playing a game just so that they can move the goal post.
Anyways, many years ago this forum was good for discussing in-depth details of your trade method, backtesting results, simulator results, codes, and live-streaming trading sessions... it's no longer that way after the marketsurfer fiasco.
- Some doubters would have the audacity to post their email address in the thread and ask people to email them the details of their trade method so that the OP can test it...to then never be heard from again.
Some members even requested ET management to create a private section of the forum for the sole purpose of sharing trade methods...as you can see...there still is no such private section and never will be because they view this Technical Analysis section as nothing is wrong...
In contrast, not much sharing anymore...just 9 pages of discussion and still running.
wrbtrader
Thanks for your comment, I appreciate it. I will keep an eye on the thread, hopefully someone will send a real proof that TA works.
You are barking to the wrong tree. But keep barking, that's fine. People that can't hold an argument start insulting around so they can fill their discourse with something.
This is an application that I have developed that uses volume and market profile. If you know anything about development, which I doubt, you could see I am using a localhost instance.
That is the only "indicator" that I found that can lead you to something, very much related to the infamous VWAP that everyone is a fan of. I have backtested about a 100 indicators in several markets and as I said the resulting performance is depressing. You can accuse me of anything, except of laziness.
Keep insulting, because your arguments are lacking of any content and it is clear that you need a weaker opponent.
If someone takes the bait and posts real proof...it will need to be continuous for many months and in real-time...
It will quiet most of the naysayers and minimize much of the debate about if TA works or not work. Yet, there will be a few naysayers that will then announce... it's faked or you're lucky.
A few that took that bait and then did such...were given no respect by some and the moderators didn't intervene when the marketsurfers showed up in those threads... a reason why some members begged for a private section to be created for this forum so that they can continue sharing their TA in peace.
Today, the best someone can do under those circumstances is post a few hindsight chart examples, talk about the TA with generalities without discussing in-depth details, maybe start a trade journal, and post broker statements.
- That has been done several times in the past here at ET.
Personally, I'm in the camp that successful trading is part science, part psychology and part art...on any given trading day...one is more important than the other.
I don't think a profitable trader is relying exclusively on technical analysis with nothing else (e.g. no risk management, no position size management, no adapting, no understanding of what is moving the markets on a particular trading day and no luck).
wrbtrader
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If you are a market participant, you are lined up against hedge funds with enough resources to beat you multiple times on any given day. What you are showing us is not technical analysis which you have no clue about. You are like fighting a boxing match with one hand tied behind your back. What do you think the other boxer is doing to do to you in the ring? Indicators (study of price) do not work but, technical analysis (study of stockcharts) works. I do not care if you believe that or not. I certainly use it, most of the successful traders on ET use it. Richard Dennis who engaged in the Turtle trading experiment and taught 13 people to become good traders using technical analysis earned $200 million in the process. Nicolas Darvas, a dancer earned $2 million in the stockmarket using technical analysis, Jesse Livermore earned tens of millions of dollars using technical analysis but, there is no proof that technical analysis works? LOL
I can see that you are moderating yourself, well done. The conversation can continue, since no one is going to show any proof of a particular case where TA works we can talk about anything. I never said that I use technical analysis. Read the post again and you will see that I said that I developed an indicator, an indicator that is well known and used by many. It is not my invention. I just developed it so I can trigger trades automatically out of the signals it can generate. No TA there. I agree, no one said that.
"you either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become a villain"
that's why i refused to help any ungrateful noobs here...
Of course most popular TA tools can identify higher probability patterns.
But that doesn't make you a consistently profitable trader.
The assumption that higher probability leads to profitability is wrong.
It is payout that leads to profitability.
If your win rate is 80%,and your win : loss ratio is 4:1, but the $ every trade you win is 1/5 of every trade you lose, then you are still a loser. That is called a payout.
To make your total payout positive, you need to know where to enter and where to exit. There are 3 important points: entry, stop loss, stop winning.
It is easier to find a high probability pattern,but it is 100 times tougher to decide 3 important points. That is why 99% short term traders lose money.
So the issue is to optimize 3 important points.
However I have solved this issue and I have the holy grail.If the definition of "TA" is analysis by price, volume,etc,then my holy grail is pure TA.
I can show you my entries and exits in real time, but you need at least to pay something.
But that doesn't make you a consistently profitable trader.
The assumption that higher probability leads to profitability is wrong.
It is payout that leads to profitability.
If your win rate is 80%,and your win : loss ratio is 4:1, but the $ every trade you win is 1/5 of every trade you lose, then you are still a loser. That is called a payout.
To make your total payout positive, you need to know where to enter and where to exit. There are 3 important points: entry, stop loss, stop winning.
It is easier to find a high probability pattern,but it is 100 times tougher to decide 3 important points. That is why 99% short term traders lose money.
So the issue is to optimize 3 important points.
However I have solved this issue and I have the holy grail.If the definition of "TA" is analysis by price, volume,etc,then my holy grail is pure TA.
I can show you my entries and exits in real time, but you need at least to pay something.
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There are more important things to do in life instead of getting into a debate (public or private) with a naysayer about your TA or about your profits...especially those that use the phrase "super-rich" as a comparison.
wrbtrader