No, you're not playing the odds unless you've systematically tested (backtest, out-of-sample and real time--the hardest to be profitable) and have 100% clear rules anyone else can replicate. Otherwise, these are just generalities and platitudes.
Prove to me that Technical Analysis Works.
- Thread starter TazTheLaz
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With all the due respect you are a troll to me. I am almost a CPA, so I am authoritative in saying you that accounting scandals recur really often, and of course the scandals represent what comes at the surface
Good luck in condemning the science of the Statistics.
Good luck picking up a stock without momentum
Random walk would give the charts a really chop formation, in reality is not the case, on 99 per cent of the charts
No doubt the Turtles used basic, mechanical TA system successfully--albeit with large drawdowns. It absolutely worked for them, but that was in an age where online charts, spreadsheets and backtesting software weren't available. There was a real edge to being able to code (some of them used punch cards) or do tedious, daily calculations and track everything on paper. In this day and age, a simple 20-day breakout system with trailing stops doesn't work nearly as well. And if it did, the edge would fade quickly as traders (starting with large funds) would quicly arb it away.
That isn't to say TA can never work any more, but if there are edges, they are much more nuanced and harder to find.
exactly....it is like my coworker always coming to me arguing with me trading doesn't work and buying and holding works. i told him to fuck off in the nicest way and not to talk to me anymore about trading and yet he keeps coming to me for stonk tips every day. u already have a mind set doing your own thing. i don't have time to convince you to change your mind set.
Technical analysis doesn't work since "technicals do not move stocks, humans do." If a broker worried about his year end bonus needs a quick P&D to get out of a bad hold to square his books and keep his job, he's not moving the share price with any thought about technicals.
This happened on a widespread scale in 2021, spring through fall, as brokerages had too much inventory bought high Jan-Feb 2021 on the big bull run, when they had 1 T @ 0% interest, then ran out of buyers.
Technicals don't move stocks, human intention does. Understand the current intention of big money, your trades will work consistently. They will change, hide, and disguise it every way imaginable, but if they know traders believe something, they'll use it against you, and get you to blame yourself.
Technicals, financials, quarterly reports, and all filings are all "bait," the market is 100% manipulation, 100% of the time. Play it that way, ask yourself, "what's the game behind the game?" and you'll find yourself making just a little bit more every day.
Happy trades!
This happened on a widespread scale in 2021, spring through fall, as brokerages had too much inventory bought high Jan-Feb 2021 on the big bull run, when they had 1 T @ 0% interest, then ran out of buyers.
Technicals don't move stocks, human intention does. Understand the current intention of big money, your trades will work consistently. They will change, hide, and disguise it every way imaginable, but if they know traders believe something, they'll use it against you, and get you to blame yourself.
Technicals, financials, quarterly reports, and all filings are all "bait," the market is 100% manipulation, 100% of the time. Play it that way, ask yourself, "what's the game behind the game?" and you'll find yourself making just a little bit more every day.
Happy trades!
And I'm sure he never had a lunch date where he got an inside info that helped. All the big guys have a great "cover story," and are very convincing. Truth is, it's a dirty business, the big guys ALL got there because they played dirty in a corrupt system. Thinking or believing a claim from any of the big boys that they played "clean" is naive.
That's my point, it's impossible for guys like that to verify that their profits are consistently from TA and nothing else. In reality, they're using something else with their Technical Analysis and one would be naive to think their profits was solely by TA.
Just the same, it will be almost impossible to verify that TA does not work for them because they are not going to share what else they're doing.
wrbtrader
All the academic papers, this is also disinformation, even the most prestigious university professor does not know all the academic papers, anyway B&H has been beaten, regrettably no I am not going to share my findings on a public forum on this specific point, a few weeks research would prove that is not correct.
other points:
between 100 per cent technical and 100 per cent fundamentalist there are an ocean of possibilities
Behavioral anomalies are scientifically proven to be present in certain market conditions, even the 20 day breakout quoted by @MKTrader in bull markets and on daily charts works quite good without any need of back-testing because of euphoria. ( And agreeing on what is proper backtesting may be a not uniform concept)
there are certain conditions and markets where TA is quite efficient
Who would deny that there was a trend line after March2020 that lasted ages in the SPX and when was broken everything was kapot?
a billionaire may move from 100% technical analysis to more quantitative and fundamentals methods for a number of reasons, one is the liquidity of the market, would not work really good to day trade 4 billions on a middle cap
buying and holding with a future to hedge, man of course is difficult to beat, but one thing is to aim to 15 per cent returns with billions( and some......dividend) and another thing aiming to 100% compounding return in a bullish market.
technical analysis is combined with position sizing increasing the hedge
And now as an European, final of champions league!