Basic Econ
#3 will only exist if the tariff overwhelms the margins of the foreign producer. This will generally cause HUGE problems in the US! Domestic producers were likely maintaining facitilities without huge amounts of excess capacity, because that was necessary in order to stay competitive on a world level. Immediately doubling quantity demanded from domestic suppliers would cause prices to skyrocket. This could potentially cause bankruptcy of suppliers without enough cash on hand.
Also, prices would likely jump enough to make it profitable for foreign suppliers to get back into the game, even with a tariff in place. Consumers willing to pay the much higher prices would still buy. Those unwilling would simply go without. Production would slow, and American production jobs would be lost.
In regards to Japan and cars. Japanese consumers are the ones who are hurt by the ban on American autos. Prices would drop significantly if they allowed US cars.
Of course, if Japan allows US cars, then our prices for GM and Ford would increase domestically.