ProShares/iShares/Direxion Bond Funds

Real Money

Real Money

Duration ETF's have been absolutely devastated.

If one had a plan to buy and hold (2-5 years) one of these funds like GOVZ, TMF, UBT, TLT, etc., well, what exactly should one be looking at here?

Expense ratio? Dividend yield? Leverage? Daily performance VS long term performance discrepancies?

Counter-party risk???

If the long bond can work it's way to 4.5 - 5%, I may be so inclined to just put 100k in one of these funds. Anybody here thinking along these lines? Maybe you have some experience with this type of fund?

Thanks.
 
I've noticed the decimation as well. Problem is, if you put money in one at 4.5 to 5%, and inflation stays at 8%, you could have a loooooong time to go on the downside before they truly bottom out...
 
Careful, a lot of those bond funds invest portions in corporate bonds which highly positively correlate with large cap equities during times of stress.

Real Money said:
Duration ETF's have been absolutely devastated.

If one had a plan to buy and hold (2-5 years) one of these funds like GOVZ, TMF, UBT, TLT, etc., well, what exactly should one be looking at here?

Expense ratio? Dividend yield? Leverage? Daily performance VS long term performance discrepancies?

Counter-party risk???

If the long bond can work it's way to 4.5 - 5%, I may be so inclined to just put 100k in one of these funds. Anybody here thinking along these lines? Maybe you have some experience with this type of fund?

Thanks.
More...
 
If you can lock in a fixed asset return at 5% by May 2023 for 1-3 years, I think that's a good deal. I'm holding 13 week T-Bills in anticipation of a terminal rate of 4.5-5% by May. Then, I'll decide to lock in for 1-3 years, maybe a staggered grouping by maturity date. I do this in anticipation of better times in the market for longer term risk rates after the 2024 U.S. election cycle

If you want to remain in fixed assets rather than taking market risk in the near future, then I think you may be able to find a 3 year non-callable CD or Treasury Note at 5% in the 1st half of 2023.
 
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