PropTrader - Daily exploits

Quote from PropTraderMTL:

Bad day to miss... the biggest move to the downside since late November.
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Ya, I'm sure you'll have plenty of opportunity to play more downside, this ain't over!

Regarding your trades:

1. Given that you trade the financials quite well, have you done analysis of your win/loss ratio of stocks you trade that are outside the financial sector?

2. What caused you to trade so many different stocks on Dec 27th?

The reason I ask is sometimes I've found myself trading stocks outside of my core group of symbols, especially if I'm having a down day. So can you provide some feedback on how you handle these issues, given that you still were able to end the month of December up 9k+, thanks.
 
Quote from ScalperJoe:

The reason I ask is sometimes I've found myself trading stocks outside of my core group of symbols, especially if I'm having a down day.
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Prop has been through this a few days back and I have experienced it this week and here is 1 take on the issue. When we have a down day especially as discretionary traders, we feel the urge to make it back. This compounds exponentially if the loss was caused by missing out on gains or a profit turning into a loss. I believe the key here is being able to identify when this particular thought process runs through one's head and stop all action then. We shouldn't have to look for the trade, it should appear to us.
My 2 cents.
 
Quote from jj90:

Prop has been through this a few days back and I have experienced it this week and here is 1 take on the issue. When we have a down day especially as discretionary traders, we feel the urge to make it back. This compounds exponentially if the loss was caused by missing out on gains or a profit turning into a loss. I believe the key here is being able to identify when this particular thought process runs through one's head and stop all action then. We shouldn't have to look for the trade, it should appear to us.
My 2 cents.
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Yeah I agree with what your saying jj90. There is a certain feeling that comes up... I call it the "on-tilt" feeling in reference to poker. The worst thing you can do in my opinion is trade when you feel like this AND make $$. That's because it tends to then reinforce a bad belief... ie that its OK to trade on-tilt.

I manage to control it quite well but I def. do slip up sometimes. When I find myself playing lots of different stocks AND losing... I have to realize that my trading is not on and take a break.

We are never going to completely eliminate this problem but being aware of it and taking a break is generally the best thing you can do
 
Quote from ScalperJoe:

Ya, I'm sure you'll have plenty of opportunity to play more downside, this ain't over!

Regarding your trades:

1. Given that you trade the financials quite well, have you done analysis of your win/loss ratio of stocks you trade that are outside the financial sector?

2. What caused you to trade so many different stocks on Dec 27th?

The reason I ask is sometimes I've found myself trading stocks outside of my core group of symbols, especially if I'm having a down day. So can you provide some feedback on how you handle these issues, given that you still were able to end the month of December up 9k+, thanks.
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1. They are mixed, NSDQ stocks are generally really bad for me. However SIRI is not a financial and is a NSDQ stock. I think the major difference is knowledge of the stock and its behavior ie what it is capable of doing to you when you get the wrong side of it and also when your the right side of it. You can look at stats on a stock but you don't truly know a stock until you have traded it numerous times. In regards to win/loss ratio... no I have never really done any stats on my trading. I never find stats on discretionary trading give an accurate assessment of my trading... for example for one day (or whatever period) my stats might be awesome... not because I traded well but because the conditions for trading were good. Sometimes I make a lot of $$ but I traded badly. I feel (an this is just my opinion) that looking at stats for my style of trading isn't very relevant compared to someone that has a quantifiable system. A lot of my trading comes from the gut and this is because my brain has seem many of these patterns before. It remembers certain things that I don't consciously remember... So I always trust my gut.

In terms of 2. I think I answered in my last post. Other then that the only thing that has helped is to recognize that this is happening and go back to basics. Reduce size, be patient, what for patterns that you recognize and then take your trades with conviction. Reducing size and being patient is so important when your trading badly
 
I came in ready to short size if I saw the right conditions this morning. But the market opened higher then I expected and moved up slowly all day.

Very proud of myself for not shorting at all on the way up. I was watching XLF mostly as I said before I trade this symbol well. I felt like shorting it but I didn't trust the market to go down. The chart then turned bullish but I wasn't prepared to go long in this market.

In the meantime I shorted a bit of Ford - I flatted the trade trade after it went 6-7c against me. On the chart Ford looks easy but its a tough stock. Probably better to just avoid it.

So I waited most of the day but eventually took a short when volume came into the XLF. 1.6m was sold @ $16.42. I was interested to see if this type of play worked on XLF. I wanted to short it prior to this but needed a catalyst. This was it. Shorted 5k @ $16.41 and it went down to .37-.38. I added 4k@16.38. So total 9k @ $16.396.

Waited patiently and covered it all @ $16.34. It turned out that was the low of the move so pretty much maximized the trade. +$470 net of fees.

Today put me in the green for the month, albeit only a tiny bit. Happy with the month based on my expectations at the beginning of the month (see below).

Date: 31/01/2011
Net P&L: +$460
Month Balance: $275

Quote from PropTraderMTL:

I'm taking my size down again tomorrow as I don't feel like being in a hole for the month and nothing seems to be working out at the moment. I'm conscious that this time last year involved big gross days but flat/negative on a net p&l basis. So I think reducing my size until something starts to happen is a good idea.

You can tell that the shorts have given up in this market and the longs really don't have any reason to be covering. Not until this imbalance rights itself and we get a big pull back will there be much action. Late Jan but probably more likely in Feb is my prediction.
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So this was my prediction on the 5th Jan. Pretty much turned out spot on in relation to my trading and thus happy to be flat at the end.

In terms of the market... I was right on the first part (that wasn't hard)... and I'm yet to be proven wrong in the second part.... correction in Feb.
 
Bullish very bullish. This market just doesn't want to go down or stay down. EVERY down tick is bought up with a fever. Lots of dumb money starting to pour in. The hedge funds and institutions that are long and have been for some time now need to unload their positions before taking us down. They need someone to hold the bag. Anyways this market ain't going down yet... Realised that a while ago... I'm just waiting patiently to make a killing when the volatility comes back to this market.

Didn't trade much today. Really missed the XLF long trade. The problem with this market is its just a slow grind... No real break outs or pull backs... Up 3 ticks back 1 tick... Up 2 ticks... Sit there for 30mins ... Down 1 tick... Up 2 ticks... Nothing really happening but the market is steadily going up without breaking out and with no fluidity.

+$320 on Citi long. -$50 on XLF. +$80 on PG short.

Less then 100k volume. So very low again. Don't see any point in taking much risk in this market. Missed the easy XLF long from low 16.60s and it's tough to always have to buy the highs.

Gonna take it easy this month until some volatility appears. As I said I expect a pull back in Feb but I guess most people do so it probably won't happen. So I'm just going to trade what I see and not what I think

Date: 2/02/2011
Net P&L: +$350
Month Balance: +$350
 
Yawn... Zzzzz...

Should never have gone in today. Snow everywhere and also where it counts... Chicago and NYC.

Boring boring boring.

Not sure about trading Thurs & Fri... See how it goes. Taking the whole of next week off on holiday... Take advantage of some of this snow

It was another day not to lose on... I took a small loss. No chance to make anything

Date: 2/02/2011
Net P&L: ($130)
Month Balance: +$220

Just realized I got my dates mixed up on my last post
 
Today was an interesting day. We had the fake candle up when news hit @ 10am. This was then followed by a large move down (by current trading standards). Then the usual buying from Fed etc stepped in a brought the market up slowly. It eventually broke out at the end of the day as the shorts gave up. This market very clearly turns to chop from 11-11:30 onwards. It just sits in a tight channel and doesn't move.

I was short financials going into the news and got smashed on the fake candle. It was a pity as these positions turned quite profitable. I didn't chase the market. Was down about $400-500 at that point. Made a little back on XLF. Then made what in reflection was a mistake... shorting AA and AMAT. These stocks are really full of algos that make little or no sense. Very tough trading. I have made a mental note to avoid them going forward.

At this stage I was down $650. Rough stuff. I shorted CCME (one of those Chinese sham companies... pump and dump stuff) when it made a double bottom and then came back to break the lows. Shorted 500 shares @ $13.85 and got out @ $13.00 to make about $400.

I then revenge traded AMAT... bad move. Went from being down $200 to being down $570 again.

Right at the close I took LVS short going into earning release. Felt after looking at the chart that it was made to look strong over the past few days and I have noticed that this pattern tends to translate into a down move on earnings. The opposite is true when the stock is weak going into earnings... ie NFLX, AAPL, GOOG... all had pops on earnings release.

Shorted 500 shares of LVS @ $50.30 and got out 300 shares on the initial move down about $1.30. It then popped and I got out of my remaining 200 shares a little better then break even. If I had held I would have been able to cover @ $47. +$500 on that trade.

Happy to get the gift on the close and finished down $70. I treat today as a bullet dodged. I like these days. The big Egypt protest tomorrow may provide a down move on the market as I expect things to get a little out of control.

Date: 3/02/2011
Net P&L: ($70)
Month Balance: +$150
 
I can't even get out of neutral in this market let alone getting into 1st or 2nd gear. Played a bunch of stocks today. Everytime I played a stock that had specific news or specific chart pattern I made $$. Up $400 at one point. Everytime I took something that somewhat relied on the market I lost $$. Down $100 by the end of the day.

Taking the whole of next week off snowboarding and I couldn't be happier. This market bores me... The shorts have given up and the markets default is a melt up. Hopefully it changes by the time I get back but I ain't holding my breath.

Zzzzz... Ciao suckers!

Date: 4/02/2011
Net P&L: ($110)
Month Balance: +$essentially flat
 
Well I started back today after a well needed break. Mixed feelings to see I didn't miss anything but also it sucks that we are still not doing much. Everyone expects a pull back which is precisely why we won't have one YET. Pension funds keep pouring $$ in a after the usual little puke on the market between 10am-11am. The buyers step in and the market becomes pretty un-tradable.

Found myself down pretty quickly about $500-$600. SIRI pull back in the morning was $300 of it. Hit out at the wrong level... although I quickly realized that this was probably a good thing as the stock dropped hard. A little loss on Citi. A failed short on NOK.

Got a good trade on AMD with an earlier break out continuing after consolidation. Took 5k for an average 10-11c. Happy with the trade however it only put me flat.

Small loss on XLF in the afternoon meant a small negative day.

The opening 1hr-2hrs is a bit of a bad trading environment at the moment. I don't seem to be able to make $$ in it. Consistently losing during this time frame... making it back between 10:30-12ish period... and then losing at the end of the day. Seems to be my typical pattern.

Been keeping size low (100k total traded today). However I think I will try a little different strategy tomorrow. Take size on the trades I really like. I'm going to try and limit my day to like 3-4 trades that I really like and not touch anything else. As soon as you start jumping into trades this market hammers you pretty quickly.

Date: 14/02/2011
Net P&L: ($130)
Month Balance: ($100)
 
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