Prolegomena to Any Future Metaphysics

[nitro]

I see signs that the economy is starting to pick up, massively. Next employment situation could see a monster number.

Will we forget what we have been through? Will we go back to our old ways, our humility lost? Can man stay humble when employed and food in his belly and iPads to play with?

I fear we will go back to our ways. At least the price of oil is forcing the world into cleaner fuels, ethics, morals, righteousness, whatever, or not. I know this is not a popular statement (the poor feel it the worst), but it may be the only way to save the world from itself.

 

[short&naked]

Quote from nitro:

I see signs that the economy is starting to pick up, massively. Next employment situation could see a monster number.

Will we forget what we have been through? Will we go back to our old ways, our humility lost? Can man stay humble when employed and food in his belly and iPads to play with?

I fear we will go back to our ways. At least the price of oil is forcing the world into cleaner fuels, ethics, morals, righteousness, whatever, or not. I know this is not a popular statement (the poor feel it the worst), but it may be the only way to save the world from itself.

What does Kant's book have anything to do with this question?

 

[trefoil]

I have no idea what Kant is doing here, and would be curious to the answer to that one.
But Hyman Minsky has the answer to what will happen, as it always does, the next time prosperity and tranquility go together:

Financial innovation...tends to induce capital gains, increase investment, and increase profits: the economy will try to expand beyond any tranquil full-employment state.
The financing of investment demand by means of new techniques means the generation of demand in excess of that allowed for by the existing tranquil state...Full employment is a transitory state because speculation upon and experimentation with liability structures and novel financial assets will lead the economy to an investment boom. An investment boom leads to inflation, an inflationary boom leads to a financial structure that is conducive to financial crises.
Therefore, in a capitalist economy that is hospitable to financial innovations, full employment with stable prices cannot be sustained, for within any full-employment situation there are endogenous disequilabrating forces at work that assure the disruption of tranquility.

James Grant observes repeatedly that there is nothing new under the Sun when it comes to finance. He's right. Financial innovation is just another phrase for the fleecing of the saps, and it will end in a year like 2008, just like prior ones ended in 1929, or 1907, or all the other years with financial crises.
Did you know that securitization wasn't new?

 

[drsteph]

The abyss we faced in 2008 was so terrifying to our leaders that they pulled all stops out to avoid it.

The abyss common folk (myself included) have faced since is a more dull, gnawing discomfort. The sense of gloom in society has been pervasive, with the long term unemployed more visible than in the past. There is a clear narrowing of options for Americans (& probably Europeans and Japanese)

Bottom line is nobody wants the austerity. Nobody wants the corrective period necessary to get back to flat. And nobody is willing to sacrifice their generation for future ones.

So, despite our feelings, we're all desperate for a return to the old ways, to what we knew was looking like it was working, regardless of the costs (economically and personally). Spare us this cup.

Its one thing to realize the categorical imperative. It is another altogether to turn away from it volitionally.

 

[ajcrshr]

Usually during recessions the economy is purged of incompetent, inefficient, and fraudulent entities so that it can regrow sound and strong. Unfortunately during the latest recession the economy was unable to cleanse itself due to massive bailouts of entities that fall into at least one of those categories. Just like weeds in a garden, these entities will continue to drain capital and resources from the economy that would otherwise flow to competent, efficient, innovative businesses. This will prevent the economy from experiencing strong sustainable growth.